Nouvelles

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - Tuesday was a positive day for the USD as the Greenback rose against almost all its competitors except the Euro.

In a choppy day, market was focused on the Federal Reserve's 2-day meeting that will finish on Wednesday with the central bank’s economic outlook. Market players are hoping that the FOMC will provide with hints about what they will do in the short and middle term.

The EUR/USD advanced to trade above the 1.3400 area for first time since February 20 and currently the pair is closing the day around 1.3395. The movement was supported on the crosses today as EUR/GBP (+0.73%) and EUR/JPY (+1.20%) advanced as well.

Except the Euro, the Greenback advanced against almost all its competitors as investor's confidence was fueled on good economic data. Stocks rallied. The GBP/USD declined to price below the 1.5600 area and after recovering ground it is trading around 1.5640. The USD/JPY jumped to trade a mid 95.00 and the USD/CAD conquered the 1.0200 zone.

Main headlines in the American session:

US: CPI rose 1.4% in May

US: Building Permits dropped to 974K in May

EU’s Rehn says it’s vital that EZ fin mins agree the principles of direct bank recapitalization

Cyprus calls for bailout redesign to avoid country's collapse

Fitch affirms Switzerland at AAA, outlook stable

Wall Street rallies and awaits for the Fed decision

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The broad-based US dollar strength theme will pick up momentum going forward, says Cameron Umetsu, FX Strategist at UBS, who favours buying any dips on the USD/CAD post FOMC.

As Umetsu writes, "Any post-FOMC pullback in USDCAD towards strong technical support at 1.0120 should offer dip-buying opportunities for those looking to exploit upside potential into the Bank of Canada's July 17 meeting."

The UBS Strategist thinks the official statement from the Bank's next meeting on July 17 "could be watered down to provide a slightly more dovish tilt than those under Carney regime, with other aspects of the policy statement also potentially softened."

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - The US stocks market closed higher on Tuesday as investors' confidence was fueled by upbeat economic data and hopes that the Federal Reserve meeting will provide any hint on what the central bank will do in the short term.

The DJIA rallied 138.38 points or 0.91% to end the day at 15,318.23. The S&P 500 advanced 12.77 points or 0.78% to 1,651.81. And the Nasdaq added 30.05 or 0.87% to 3,482.18.

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - After being rejected by the 95.75 area in the early American session, the USD/JPY fell to the 95.00 but the pair held the position and currently it's pricing around 95.20.

Moving in consolidation mode, the pair is 0.75% positive on the day. Short term perspective, however, is slightly bearish according to the YoutradeFX.com trend index in the 15-minute chart. Indicators such as MACD and Momentum are pointing to the south while the CCI is bullish and the Stochastic is neutral.

Below the 95.00 area, next supports are at 94.80 and 94.50. On the upside, resistances are at 95.35, 95.75 and 96.10.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 95.28  |  CLOSE = 95.22  |  HIGH = 95.3  |   LOW = 95.22
BID = 95.21  |  ASK = 95.22  |   PERCENT = 0.05
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 1  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - A rather upbeat US housing market report and a contained inflation report left the EUR/USD unchanged, notes the UBS analyst team.

"A slight positive surprise in the German ZEW survey lifted EURUSD slightly to a new cyclical high. However, market focus is clearly lying on the Fed communication on Wednesday", UBS says. "Does the Fed signal an end to the quantitative easing program and what would be the reason to end the program? The answers to these questions are key to our expected drop of EURUSD".

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - As the FOMC meeting gets underway, Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst at DailyFX notes that with markets geared for a disappointment – expectations are firmly biased towards a reduction in QE3 – anything close to a hold with a neutral tone could provoke one last leg lower in the USD/JPY.

"After topping on May 22 at 103.73, the USDJPY has been following the bearish path of a Rising Wedge, drawn from the April 2 low at 92.55. Similarly, the break below 95.20 last week may have also initiated another bearish pattern, a Broadening Wedge, drawn from the February 25 low at 90.84", says Vecchio.

"Accordingly, a break below 93.75 (last week's low) amid neutral/dovish commentary from the Fed and a sustained high pace of QE3 should prompt the next moves lower to 92.55 then potentially 90.84 over the coming week", he concludes.

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is stabilising around the key level at 1.3400 on Tuesday, as we enter the last part of the session in Wall Street.

EUR/USD ready for the FOMC

Big day for the shared currency on Wednesday, as the 2-day FOMC meeting will finish with the most-waited announcements by Chairman Bernanke regarding the likeliness (or not) of the Fed scaling back its monthly asset purchases. In the opinion of Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst at DailyFX, “if the Fed signals tomorrow that it will sustain a high pace of QE3 (>$70B/month), yields are due for a snapback as investors run back to the “QE-on” trade: stronger US equities; stronger US bonds; and a weaker US Dollar”.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is up 0.24% at 1.3401 and a break above 1.3434 (high Feb.20) would target 1.3456 (high Feb.14) en route to 1.3481 (76.4% of 1.3711-1.2740). On the flip side, support levels align at 1.3295 (low Jun.14) followed by 1.3279 (low Jun.13) and finally 1.3266 (low Jun.12).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3403  |  CLOSE = 1.3402  |  HIGH = 1.3404  |   LOW = 1.3401
BID = 1.3401  |  ASK = 1.3405  |   PERCENT = 0.0075
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - After trading sub 0.8000 levels the whole Tuesday's session, the NZD/USD jumped around 50 pips to test intra-day highs at 0.8020. Currently the pair is trading at 0.8005.

Holding the 0.8000 position and performing 0.20% positive on the day, the NZD/USD remains strongly bullish according to the YoutradeFX.com trend index in the 15-minute chart. Indicators such as CCI and Momentum are pointing to the north while the Stochastic and the MACD are neutral.

Fighting the 0.8000 level

If the pair holds the 0.8000 level, next resistances are at 0.8020 and 0.8040. On the downside, below the mentioned key level, 0.7950 and 0.7925 are supports.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.8009  |  CLOSE = 0.8  |  HIGH = 0.8011  |   LOW = 0.8
BID = 0.8  |  ASK = 0.8003  |   PERCENT = 0.1125
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 2  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - Optimism amongst investors is building up ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC gathering, as hopes that Bernanke may allay the ‘tapering’ chatter are growing bigger. On the opposite side, the greenback is trading in the defensive territory, hovering over session lows around 80.70. DowJones is up 0.87% followed by the Nasdaq, 0.88% and the S&P500, 0.74%.

Bourses in Europe closed mostly with gains with the exception of the CAC40, down 0.08% and the more general Stoxx600, down 0.08%. Traders were moving in a cautious mode on Tuesday, ahead of the Fed meeting due on Wednesday. The FTSE100 led the winners, advancing 0.69% ahead of the IBEX35, up 0.54%. Choppy session for the shared currency, bottoming out around 1.3320 on mixed German ZEW Survey just to climb beyond 1.3400 the figure afterwards.

In the commodities’ realm, the barrel of light crude oil is advancing 0.71% at $98.47 while the ounce troy of gold is retreating sharply, 1.19% at $1,366.

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - Fitch Ratings affirmed Switzerland AAA long-term rating Tuesday while keeping a stable outlook on the country.

Fitch cited diversified and wealthy economy, strong public finances and Switzerland's strong external finances and institutions.

The stable outlook reflects Fitch's assessment that the downside risks to the 'AAA' rating are currently not material.

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against its major rivals, is trading on the back foot on Tuesday, extending the intraday decline to the area of 80.70.

In light of the biggest event for the USD – the FOMC meeting due tomorrow – Senior Strategist Phillip Marey at Rabobank commented, “While the Fed Chairman may attempt to give more clarity about tapering off QE3, it will be difficult to reduce market uncertainty because there does not seem to be a consensus in the FOMC on an explicit criterion for stopping or tapering QE3. What’s more, the economic data that the Committee will be responding to are likely to remain mixed for the next few months”.

At the moment the index is retreating 0.29% at 80.73 with the next support at 80.50, 80.20 and 80.00; resistance levels line up at 81.00, 81.30 and 81.60.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - Arguably, the greatest challenge to the market’s recent “mine, everything” mantra has been the threat of a withdrawal of global liquidity.

According to the RBS Research Team, “The rise in US Treasury yields appears to reflect the market's concern that the Fed is prioritizing asset class volatility over inflation/growth. The strength of the US economy, or rather the lack of it, suggests that real yields need to stay very low, most probably negative. However, with inflation low and nominal yields rising, real yields have actually been rising fairly quickly.”

Markets are set to hear from the US central bank at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. It’s likely that the Fed will be happy to see that some of the intense heat has been taken out of the equity market. Higher mortgage rates will most likely be of more of a concern.

It’s possible that the Fed signals a continued easy monetary policy stance through to year-end, knocking back market expectations of a tapering of its asset purchases as early as September. However, “it’s not clear that risk markets will recover in response as other drivers of the recent market correction remain. The USD may also continue to perform poorly.” the team adds.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - We noted a couple of weeks ago that we felt borderline crazy when we told clients in the US a few weeks ago that 90.00 was possible in AUD/JPY - AUD/JPY was above 105.00 at the time.

According to Global FX Strategist Sean Callow at Westpac, “At the time, we argued "90.00 was achievable. Indeed it looked like it could be exceeded. Since then AUD/JPY has indeed hit and indeed overshot our objective.”

However, the speed of the decline looks like it is overdone here. The fall in AUD/JPY over the past 2 months now stands at just under 12%. Falls of 12-13% magnitude over a two-month period (or close to this level) typically represent an exhaustion point in terms of selling pressure in AUD/JPY. The clear exception was the episode in October 2008 when we saw close to a 40% drop in AUD/JPY over a 2-month period. This was obviously an exceptional period and excluding that episode, history suggests we aren't too far off a base in AUD/JPY in the context of the current sell off.

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - After bottoming in the area of 1.5560, the sterling has managed to gather traction and lift the GBP/USD to the current region around the mid 1.56s.

GBP/USD digested CPI figures

Market participants left behind the higher consumer prices in the UK during May, as they’re now focusing on the FOMC meeting due tomorrow. " With the UK economy gradually regaining upward momentum in the first half of this year and inflation still above target, investor expectations for further BoE monetary easing this year have been scaled back helping the pound to rebound after it had weakened sharply in Q1”, commented Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at BTMU.

GBP/USD relevant levels

At the moment the pair is retreating 0.53% at 1.5636 with the immediate support at 1.5521 (low Jun.11) ahead of 1.5488 (low Jun.7) and finally 1.5426 (61.8% of 1.5008-1.4685). On the upside, a breakout of 1.5723 (high Jun.18) would clear the way to 1.5753 (high Jun.17) and then 1.5789 (61.8% of 1.6380-1/4832).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5639  |  CLOSE = 1.5639  |  HIGH = 1.5642  |   LOW = 1.5635
BID = 1.5638  |  ASK = 1.5639  |   PERCENT = 0
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD has extended its recovery during American hours, supported by advance seen in stocks.

AUD/USD bottomed out at the 0.9440 area, weighed by RBA minutes and the downward revision in the Q1 Chinese current account, but it has managed to regain ground, rising back above the 0.9500 mark in recent dealings.

AUD/USD still looks vulnerable

At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9505/10 zone, still down 0.4% on the day. From a technical view, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at YoutradeFX.com, recently commented that technical readings present a strong bearish tone in 4-hour chart, supporting a stronger downward continuation on a break below 0.9420 support.

Bednarik locates supports at 0.9420, 0.9380 and 0.9345, while she sees resistances at 0.9510, 0.9560 and 0.9600.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9513  |  CLOSE = 0.9501  |  HIGH = 0.9515  |   LOW = 0.95
BID = 0.95  |  ASK = 0.9506  |   PERCENT = 0.1263
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -1  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's commodity-based currencies and outline the technical positions.

In terms of the AUD/USD, “The pair is consolidating; however with the MACD below its zero line upside should be limited with resistance at 0.9731. Support is at 0.9416 ahead of 0.9326, suggesting a bearish outlook.” In addition, in looking at the USD/CAD, our focus is on the key support at 1.0120 ahead of 1.0027 – resistance is at 1.0226.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The past fortnight has challenged many of the market’s most closely held views and positions.

In fact, there’s almost been a perfect storm in terms of news and events. According to the RBS Research Team, “Significantly greater volatility in Japanese equities and government bonds has continued to shake long USD/JPY positions. Weaker US data have challenged positions that try to take advantage of a relative outperformance of the US economy versus Europe.”

A combination of weaker external demand and higher global real yields has seen investors revisit their view that emerging market and commodity currencies have room to appreciate against the G4. This looks to have driven a recovery in the EUR, GBP, CHF and JPY against high beta currencies and the USD. Portfolio inflows into commodity and emerging markets assets in recent years have been significant. “It would therefore seem likely that markets will remain more volatile for some time to come.” the team adds.

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - The Cypriot president Nicos Anastasiades has asked Eurozone leaders for the redesign of it €10Bn bailout approved in March.

In a last's week letter obtained by Financial Times, Anastasiades said that the bailout was “implemented without careful preparation” wiping out the working capital of Cypriot industry.

The president warned the Troika that the "economy is driven into a deep recession, leading to a further rise in unemployment and making fiscal consolidation all the more difficult." Anastasiades also urges leaders "to review the possibilities in order to determine a viable prospect for Cyprus and its people."

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The USD/CHF is falling for the second consecutive session on Tuesday, penetrating the key support at 0.9200 against the backdrop of increasing risk appetite.

USD/CHF hit by dollar weakness

The benchmark pair for the risk aversion is extending its daily decline from late May highs around 0.9850, although finding good support in the vicinity of 0.9150. In the opinion of I.Spivak, Currency Strategist at DailyFX, “Prices declined as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, taking out support marked by a rising trend line set from early February and exposing the 0.92 figure. A push below that targets the 123.6% Fibonacci extension at 0.9056. The trend line – now at 0.9391 – has been recast as resistance.

USD/CHF relevant levels

At the moment the pair is losing 0.42% at 0.9187 with the next support at 0.9130 (low Jun.13) followed by 0.9059 (low Feb.6) and then 0.9024 (2013 low Feb.1). On the upside, a breakout of 0.9262 (high Jun.18) would bring 0.9271 (MA10d) and finally 0.9287 (high Jun.12).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9187  |  CLOSE = 0.9191  |  HIGH = 0.9192  |   LOW = 0.9181
BID = 0.919  |  ASK = 0.9191  |   PERCENT = -0.0435
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's majors and outline the technical positions.

Beginning with the USD/JPY, “The weakness since mid–May is approaching the significant support at 93.57. A closing break below this would be further negative opening 90.43. Resistance is at 96.10, suggesting a bearish intraday outlook.”

As for the GBP/USD, yesterday the pair posted a new recovery high. Our focus is on the strong resistance at 1.5789; a closing break above this would be further positive opening 1.5879, while support is at 1.5616. Finally, regarding the USD/CHF, the pair is consolidating to unwind the sharp overextended downside conditions with resistance at 0.9309. Support is at 0.9196 ahead of 0.9130.

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD advanced to fresh daily highs during the American session in the wake of soft US inflation and housing data that were relatively in line with expectations.

USD/CAD capped by 1.0215

However, the USD/CAD found resistance at the 1.0215/20 zone and pulled back slightly but has managed to hold above the 1.0200 mark so far. At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at the 1.0205 zone, where it is still up 0.2% on the day.

As for technical levels, if USD/CAD breaks above 1.0215, next resistances could be faced at 1.0225 (Jun 13 high) and 1.0250 (Jun 11 high). On the other hand, immediate supports are seen at 1.0175 (daily low) and 1.0150 (Jun 17 low).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.0206  |  CLOSE = 1.0214  |  HIGH = 1.0215  |   LOW = 1.0204
BID = 1.0211  |  ASK = 1.0217  |   PERCENT = -0.0783
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - To be sure, the FOMC meeting this week will be critical in determining the near-term path for commodity currencies.

According to Robert Rennie, an analyst at Westpac, “Our base case remains that Bernanke should repeat that the Fed is on course to consider tapering in coming months if the economy does not falter, but leave the statement unchanged. Such an outcome should give commodity currencies something of a short-term reprieve.”

We have therefore added 1/3 unit long AUD/JPY at 91.03 to our Forex Focus portfolio and will add another 1/3 unit on dips to 89.50. We will run a stop on this below 89.00. By reducing the capital size to 2/3 unit, we aim to limit our stop to 1%. Our objective for a bounce in AUD/JPY would be for a return towards the 94.00 area before selling returns.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is alternating gains and losses on Tuesday in quite a volatile session, now attempting once more to push EUR/USD beyond 1.3400 the figure.

EUR/USD now looks at FOMC

With most of the euro calendar now out of the way – Wednesday’s docket is almost irrelevant – market participants started to shift their attention to the FOMC meeting due tomorrow. In the view of Eric Theoret, Strategist at Scotiabank, the outlook on the cross remains bullish, adding, “all indicators suggestive of upside, but need to see a meaningful breach of 1.3400 to provide for further gains. Multi-session trend channel suggests support above 1.3320 with resistance beyond 1.3450”.

EUR/USD key levels

At the moment the pair is up 0.23% at 1.3399 and a breakout of 1.3434 (high Feb.20) would target 1.3456 (high Feb.14) en route to 1.3481 (76.4% of 1.3711-1.2740). On the flip side, support levels align at 1.3295 (low Jun.14) followed by 1.3279 (low Jun.13) and finally 1.3266 (low Jun.12).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3396  |  CLOSE = 1.3399  |  HIGH = 1.3401  |   LOW = 1.3393
BID = 1.3398  |  ASK = 1.3402  |   PERCENT = -0.0224
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - According to the RBS Research Team, “We expect that the range (2.00% to 2.30% in 10's) trade will continue at least until the Fed announcement on Wednesday, if not beyond.”

More specifically, “we recommend buying a dip against 2.30% ahead of the Fed, if we get it.” It was another quiet overnight as Treasuries held a 2bps range throughout both the Tokyo and London sessions. Our flows in Tokyo were light and two-way, and London had a small central bank seller of the front end. Total Treasury inter-dealer broker volume was 74% of the 10-day average through this morning.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - Precious metals ran into a buzzsaw Tuesday morning during US trading, incurring sizable losses with the FOMC on in the upcoming session.

Gold prices dip to key support

Gold prices pushed lower throughout the European session, ultimately breaking and settling below 1380.00 level, having thus activated a portended bearish scenario. A move lower towards the initial 1365.00 should provide some measure of stability, while alternative the 1390.00 resistance manage to hold the yellow metal in consolidation in the near-term. In these moments, gold has settled at USD $1363.40 per oz. Tuesday.

Silver faces heavy selling pressure

Silver prices are again under heavy selling pressure, having approached the minor ascending support on a four-hour basis. A break below this support could lead to further losses today. Overall, holding below the key 22.10 resistance level keeps the bearish outlook intact – a level that has previously been rebuffed. At the current levels, the price of silver has now moved to USD $21.56 per oz. during US trading.

WTI holds onto recent gains

WTI crude oil is holding above the key intraday support at 97.35, a break below this support will probably extend the correction towards 96.60 support area, where the ascending trend line for the latest bullish wave resides. Should a move occur to 96.50, that would provide another opportunity to long the commodity in the context of the bullish wave. At the time of writing, WTI crude prices have settled in the region of USD $98.06/bbl during US trading.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Kit Juckes at Societe Generale explains that Ben (Bernanke) said that if things go on improving he might taper sooner rather than later.

"John (Hilsenrath, WSJ), pointed out that this didn't mean imminent tapering. Robin (Harding, FT) suggests that the Fed will not back off but action is dependent on the economy." Hilsenrath and Harding aren't really very far apart, said Kit Juckes, but the reversal of recent trends (rising US yields, tumbling high-beta currencies, wider credit spreads) was put on hold.

He continues to say, "...current policy is creating market and economic distortions just as past periods did. The reaction to taper talk in EM, commodities and volatility shows where bubbles have been inflated. This is the most powerful argument in favour of the Fed taking the first baby-steps on the path away from super-easy policy. Another issue is that nominal GDP growth is slowing - 3.4% y/y in Q1 2013 after a post-crisis peak at 4.5% a year ago. SG economic forecasts look for a re-acceleration from here. The Fed may not need evidence of a return to ‘old normal' growth or signs of a re-acceleration in CPI or wage inflation to justify tapering. But nominal growth does need to turn a bit higher".

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The GBP/USD remains north of 1.56 today as attractive rates for importers hold above this level for the for the first time since February.

Despite most of 2013 feeling like gloomy times for dollar buyers, when we dig a bit deeper we can see that the 12 month average is 1.5695 so the recent move is an interesting return to a key pivot point, albeit unforeseen by many forecasters.

According to Lee McDarby, Corporate Treasury at Investec, “Rates do not look too comfortable when we see spikes into the 1.57’s which might be a sign that we are reaching the top of the tree around here after what has been a sharp and swift move higher.” GBP/EUR continues to be stuck in the mud in the 1.17’s right now and since March the pair has traded pretty frustratingly between 1.1650 and the high 1.18’s. The tug-of-war between dollar strength and weakness seems to have faded any interest in GBP/EUR into the background and it looks like it will take either drastic action from the incoming Mark Carney or an implosion in another EU Member State to catalyze some action.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - EUR/JPY has continued to print higher highs on the way up to test the resistance level of 127.90.

The pair had achieved some early session gains as the EUR continues to outperform across the majors and may continue to do so depending on the outcome of tomorrow’s FOMC. However, to reiterate from this mornings commentary, and acknowledging the broader trend, risks could still remain to the downside.

EUR/JPY capping

Depending on the outcome of the FOMC and feedback to the trading desks, the dollar could become dominant once again, and that would likely see EUR/JPY retract the bounce. Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank stated that 124.45 is still considered by her to be the break down point to 118.82/65, the February and April lows and the 38.2% retracement of the same move. She can see minor resistance around the 127.71, in the vicinity of where the pair has been held up currently and around February’s peak. She explains that immediate downside pressure will be maintained while EUR/JPY stays below the 131.30 June 11 high.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 127.93  |  CLOSE = 127.89  |  HIGH = 127.93  |   LOW = 127.86
BID = 127.88  |  ASK = 127.92  |   PERCENT = 0.02
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - After dipping to fresh weekly lows, GBP/USD managed to bounce and trimmed intraday losses as US stocks opened positively.

GBP/USD found support after hitting a 1-week low of 1.5564, although the recovery has been capped by the 1.5615 area so far, leaving the pair searching for direction in the vicinity of 1.5600, where it records a 0.8% loss.

GBP/USD holds the bearish tone

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at YoutradeFX.com, notes that GBP/USD shows an increasing bearish momentum in short-term charts, and points for a challenge of the 1.5550 support. "A break below this latter should trigger stops and see further depreciation in the pair", Bednarik adds.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5596  |  CLOSE = 1.5615  |  HIGH = 1.5617  |   LOW = 1.5594
BID = 1.5612  |  ASK = 1.5613  |   PERCENT = -0.1217
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Greek PM Antonis Samaras is expected to meet with Troika inspectors today at 6 pm local time. The officials will try to reach an agreement on several unresolved issues regarding the country's privatization program.

The plan had been undermined last week by the authorities' failure to sell the state-controlled natural gas supplier DEPA. The last-minute pullout of the Russian giant Gazprom from the deal left Athens unable to reach the 2.6 billion euro target for revenues from privatizations this year.

Other questions which might be discussed at the meeting include the closure of the Greek state broadcaster ERT last week as well as the failure of the main medical services provider EOPPY.

Greek and Troika officials will be trying to reach a consensus ahead of the Eurogroup meeting scheduled for Thursday.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The USD/JPY foreign exchange rate stalled at the 95.81 level Tuesday during US trading, triggering a movement that was erasing gains in these moments.

USD/JPY negative expectations intact

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The USD/JPY is touching around Linear Regression Indicator 34 and is approaching resistance level represented in 95.50 levels. Prolonged stability below the mentioned resistance supports keeps our negative expectations and ignoring any positive signal shown on momentum indicators.”

Following the recent easing, the USD/JPY is still residing in positive territory at 95.56, still advancing at +1.09% Tuesday. “The weakness since mid–May is approaching the significant support at 93.57. A closing break below this would be further negative opening 90.43. Resistance is at 96.10, suggesting a bearish intraday outlook.” Notes Gareth Berry, a Research Analyst at UBS.

“The USD/JPY has ground to a halt just above the 93.58 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2012-13 rise, that has thus far held the initial test. Near-term rallies are expected to remain tepid and should fail at 97.12/99.41 to leave overall pressure still on the downside. Failure at 93.58 is expected to trigger losses to the 50% retracement at 90.43.” warns Karen Jones, an analyst at Commerzbank.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 95.47  |  CLOSE = 95.55  |  HIGH = 95.62  |   LOW = 95.35
BID = 95.55  |  ASK = 95.56  |   PERCENT = -0.09
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/GBP managed to reverse its recent losses on Tuesday, underpinned by divergent EZ and UK economic data.

EUR/GBP rises above 100-day SMA

EUR/GBP climbed over 80 pips throughout the day, piercing above the 100-day SMA at 0.8545 and reached a 3-week high of 0.8581, following the release of US CPI. At time of writing, the cross is trading at the 0.8575 zone, where it records a 0.9% gain.

As for technical levels, if EUR/GBP manages to break above 0.8580, next resistance is seen at 0.8600 (psychological level), while supports could be faced at 0.8550/45 (intraday level/100-day SMA) and 0.8500 (psychological level).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.8577  |  CLOSE = 0.8579  |  HIGH = 0.8583  |   LOW = 0.8574
BID = 0.8578  |  ASK = 0.8581  |   PERCENT = -0.0233
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Emmanuel Ng, strategist at COBC, said that the EUR/USD in their view remains unchanged and multi-session.

He said the EURUSD may hover around the 1.3400 neighbourhood pending the FOMC and the slew of EZ numbers this week. In the interim, any failure to hold at 1.3400 may see a consolidation towards the 1.3360 area before 1.3300. For the USD/JPY, he suggests a top heavy stance may prevail on the back of shaky JPY-crosses and the open verdict on dollar strength at this juncture. He added that the 95.00 handle may remain pivotal in the near term with downside waypoints expected into 93.75, and then 92.40.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The EUR/USD bottomed out in the 1.3325 region earlier today, only to receive a strong impetus that culminated in a rapid recovery during US trading.

EUR/USD springs back

According to Karen Jones, an analyst at Commerzbank, “The EUR/USD charted an almost replica session to leave a positive outlook unchanged. Last week the market came close to the mid-January high at 1.3404. Directly overhead lies 1.3440/52, the 200-week MA and the 2011-2013 resistance line. This is key resistance and we look for this to hold and provoke failure.”

Following a surge during US trading, the EUR/USD has pared its losses to 1.3353, or just -0.10% at the time of writing. “Any downside will be limited as the EUR/USD bull trend is intact. Support is at 1.3259 ahead of 1.3163. Resistance is at 1.3390 ahead of 1.3520 – support is at 1.3266” notes Gareth Berry, a Research Analyst at US.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3383  |  CLOSE = 1.3393  |  HIGH = 1.3393  |   LOW = 1.3383
BID = 1.3392  |  ASK = 1.3394  |   PERCENT = -0.0747
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The US stock market opened slightly higher Tuesday, one day removed from a volatile session, which saw rumors dragging all major indices before an eventual recovery.

US data release leaves little for the imagination

Earlier today in the United States, the Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) has climbed +1.7% in May, matching expectations of +1.7%. In addition, the Consumer Price Index (YoY) was reported at +1.4% in May, in line with projections calling for +1.4%.

Beginning with the indices and composites, the NASDAQ rose +0.28% as it settles in region of 3461.67, up +9.68 points in these moments. In addition, the S&P 500 is trading in positive territory, operating at 1641.91, ascending +2.94 points or +0.18% at the time of writing. Finally, the Dow Jones has moved higher at the opening, trading in the zone of 15213.64, presently +0.22% after a movement of +33.79 points.

Sectors are mostly higher at the opening, however the Technology and Financial sectors have distinguished themselves as the winners thus far, rising +0.25% and +0.30% respectively. Moreover, the price of gold has settled at $1373.58 per oz., while silver is now negotiating a spot price of $21.76 per oz.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - USD/CHF had dropped heavily overnight but has since gathered back some space throughout the European session and after a series of US data releases.

USD/CHF re-positioned

USD/CHF is currently trading in the region of the pivot and oscillating between 0.9220/40 zone. The SNB meets this Thursday and it will be interesting to see if the SNB has something new to offer after the aggressive downgrade to inflation expectations in their last meeting. Before then, mind you, FOMC will be key focus in the market and would be more likely the catalyst for a direction one way or the other for the time being. At this time of writing, the indicators are suggesting that we may see some consolidation here, which would make sense prior to the FOMC coming up tomorrow and having found an equilibrium again along the pivot line. Resistances: 0.9265 - 0.9235 - 0.922. Supports: 0.913 - 0.9155 - 0.9175

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.922  |  CLOSE = 0.9223  |  HIGH = 0.9223  |   LOW = 0.9215
BID = 0.922  |  ASK = 0.9225  |   PERCENT = -0.0325
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's EUR crosses and note that there is a generally neutral-trending bias ahead.

“Any downside will be limited as the EUR/USD bull trend is intact. Support is at 1.3259 ahead of 1.3163. Resistance is at 1.3390 ahead of 1.3520 – support is at 1.3266” the analysts note. In terms of the EUR/CHF, the sharp sell-off is held by the support at 1.2267. A closing break would trigger deeper sell-off to 1.2196. Upside should be limited with strong resistance at 1.2386.

Moving to the EUR/GBP, the cross is trading choppy. Strong support at 0.8475 was tested on last Wednesday. A closing break here would open 0.8398. Resistance is at 0.8549 ahead of 0.8607. Finally, concerning the EUR/JPY, the strong support at 124.72; a closing break below this would be further negative opening 119.11. Resistance is at 128.12, suggesting a bearish intraday outlook.

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The Redbook index contracted 0.4% on a monthly basis and advanced 2.9% over the last twelve months in the week ended on June 9, against previous prints at -0.5% and 2.8%, respectively.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - AUD/USD has printed as relatively bearish for the US economy, which may offer some respite for the AUD/USD pair.

Despite the dollar making ground steadily elsewhere, AUD/USD have maintained higher regions since the data release.
AUD/USD jumped to 0.9575 from 0.9459 on the release of data revealing a number of factors in the US economy that would contribute to informing the market we are not out of the woods yet. Building permits fell month on month from 1.005m to 0.974m, below a consensus if 0.975m. Housing Starts printed a poorer number than the consensus, 0.914m vrs 0.950m, although coming in higher than the previous 0.856m. Meanwhile, CPI ex food and energy, month on month reads 1.7% and keeps in line with both consensus and previous. With those sets of benign US data, the market will focus its attention again to what the RBA minutes revealed, which do not bowed well for the Australian dollar in the long run. The RBA minutes for the June 4th meeting read: “inflation outlook might provide some scope for further easing”, “it was possible that the exchange rate would depreciate further over time as the terms of trade declined”. The green light for a weaker AUD. Up next on the list of economic factors to watch out for here comes in the form of FOMC tomorrow

Support seen for AUD/USD

Karen Jones at Commerzbank has said that a negative bias will remain while capped by 0.9792, the current June high. The 0.9388 support represents a major break down point longer term. A close below here will introduce scope to 0.9147, then 0.8550 en route to 0.8068, the 2010 low.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.946  |  CLOSE = 0.9469  |  HIGH = 0.9473  |   LOW = 0.9453
BID = 0.9467  |  ASK = 0.9469  |   PERCENT = -0.095
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - There has been no shortage of Fed-related headlines in the lead up to Wednesday's FOMC.

Yesterday, the FT published a commentary saying that Bernanke will likely use Wednesday's post-FOMC press conference to signal that the Fed is close to tapering asset purchases. The article also wrote that Bernanke will balance his message by saying subsequent tapering moves will depend on the path of the economy and in no way brings forward the timing of a rate rise.

The S&P500 fell almost 1%, and the USD index hit an intraday high of 80.9 (or +0.26%), in the hour after the article hit the newswires. However in an interesting turn of events, the FT reporter who wrote the article (US economy reporter Robin Harding) subsequently tweeted that "The Fed does not leak anything to any journalist to steer markets - especially during blackout" and that he has "been in the September taper camp for a while and I'd stick with that". According to the Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “”e suspect that this week Bernanke will continue to say tapering could happen this year but will be data dependent and that we are still a long way off from removing the very easy policy stance the Fed has in place.”

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD wavered sharply data showed US consumer prices rose in May, mainly in line with expectations, while housing data disappointed.

GBP/USD dips to weekly lows

GBP/USD initially received a mild boost and rose to the 1.5615 zone from 1.5590 before the CPI, but quickly turned back south, dipping to fresh weekly lows. At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at the 1.5575 zone, down 0.9% on the day, having hit a low of 1.5570 in recent dealings.

As for technical levels, GBP/USD could find immediate supports at 1.5520 (Jun 11 low) and 1.5500 (psychological level), while resistances are now seen at 1.5620 (200-hour SMA) and 1.5690 (200-day SMA).

Ahead of the FOMC

The greenback weakened as knee-jerk reaction to the data given that inflation pressures don't seem to be strong enough to prompt an early QE tapering process from the Fed. However, at this point data impact should be short-lived as investors await the Fed itself to shed more light on the future of the stimulus program.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5582  |  CLOSE = 1.5577  |  HIGH = 1.5584  |   LOW = 1.5574
BID = 1.5577  |  ASK = 1.5578  |   PERCENT = 0.0321
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD quickly climbed to the doorsteps of 1.3400 the figure after US consumer prices and housing data, although dropped soon after to the mid 1.33s.

EUR/USD vs. US data

In fact, US headline consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 1.4% and 0.1% on a monthly basis, vs. forecasts at 1.4% and 0.2%, respectively. Excluding food and energy costs – Core CPI – prices matched the median, advancing 1.7% YoY and 0.2% MoM. In the housing sector, both Building Permits and Housing Starts disappointed investors, printing 974K and 914K, respectively.

EUR/USD tech levels

At the moment the pair is down 0.11% at 1.3354 with the support levels aligning at 1.3295 (low Jun.14) followed by 1.3279 (low Jun.13) and finally 1.3266 (low Jun.12). On the upside, a surpass of 1.3434 (high Feb.20) would target 1.3456 (high Feb.14) en route to 1.3481 (76.4% of 1.3711-1.2740). On the downside,

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3357  |  CLOSE = 1.3352  |  HIGH = 1.3358  |   LOW = 1.3348
BID = 1.3351  |  ASK = 1.3352  |   PERCENT = 0.0374
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The NZD/USD technical pair has maintained a sideways consolidation during the start of US trading, despite the recent tranche of economic data that has moved other currency pairs.

NZD/USD still trading above support

Presently, the NZD/USD is still withering at a rate of -0.27% off its opening Tuesday, having settled at 0.7970. Despite earlier jitters, the NZD/USD finds itself trading above supports, which lie at 0.7950, then 0.7892, and finally 0.7818.

NZD/USD bottomed out?

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The NZD/USD dropped on Monday and Tuesday, steadying below the resistance of a setup similar to a Broadening Wedge Pattern, and dropped below 0.8065 as well. These technical events weaken the momentum of positivity quite clearly however, at the same time, make it difficult for us to suggest a downtrend since the pair is steady above 0.7920.”

In the United States, the Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) has climbed +1.7% in May, matching expectations of +1.7%. In addition, the Consumer Price Index (YoY) was reported at +1.4% in May, in line with projections calling for +1.4%. Housing Starts (MoM) yielded a figure of 0.914M in May, missing expectations of 0.950M. Finally, Building Permits (MoM) gave a result of 0.974M in May, compared with an estimate of 0.975M.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.7979  |  CLOSE = 0.7974  |  HIGH = 0.7992  |   LOW = 0.7967
BID = 0.7972  |  ASK = 0.7979  |   PERCENT = 0.0627
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The USD/JPY foreign exchange rate has built on its gains during US trading, having surged higher throughout the European session earlier.

USD/JPY moves on checkered economic data

In the United States, the Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) has climbed +1.7% in May, matching expectations of +1.7%. In addition, the Consumer Price Index (YoY) was reported at +1.4% in May, in line with projections calling for +1.4%. Housing Starts (MoM) yielded a figure of 0.914M in May, missing expectations of 0.950M. Finally, Building Permits (MoM) gave a result of 0.974M in May, compared with an estimate of 0.975M.

At the time of writing, the USD/JPY technical pair is trading at 95.49, up +0.98% during US trading, despite peaking recently at 95.60 (intraday high). The Mataf.net analyst team points to the propensity for short-term resistances at 95.70, then 96.18. On the decline, supportive measures are found at 94.31, then 93.83, and ultimately 93.37.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 95.49  |  CLOSE = 95.48  |  HIGH = 95.6  |   LOW = 95.28
BID = 95.46  |  ASK = 95.48  |   PERCENT = 0.01
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The Commerce Department has informed that Building Permits fell to 974K during May, a tad below the median at 975K and lower than April’s 1.005M (revised).

New Construction of US houses rose to 0.914M in the same period vs. forecasts at 950K and 856K previous (revised).

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The Department of Labour has informed that US consumer prices rose 1.4% on a yearly basis during May, banging on expectations at 1.4%. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.1% vs. 0.2% expected.

Core CPI, which strips food and energy costs, rose 1.7% over the last twelve months and 0.2% MoM. Both prints have matched the median.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The USD/CAD technical pair has fallen off earlier European highs of 1.0215, retreating below the key 1.0200 barrier after US data.

In the United States, the Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) has climbed +1.7% in May, matching expectations of +1.7%. In addition, the Consumer Price Index (YoY) was reported at +1.4% in May, in line with projections calling for +1.4%. Housing Starts (MoM) yielded a figure of 0.914M in May, missing expectations of 0.950M. Finally, Building Permits (MoM) gave a result of 0.974M in May, compared with an estimate of 0.975M.

USD/CAD could see swing to 1.0250

“The USD/CAD continues to show signs of trying to base, while the short-term bear pressure is moderating and the market has pushed through short-term channel resistance in the 1.0200 area in late morning European trade. We think an extension through 1.0210/15 (note 40-day MA at 1.0208) should see the USD rise to 1.0250/80.” suggests the TD Securities Team.

Technically speaking, the pair is operating at 1.0194, or +0.08% in these moments. The USD/CAD will look towards resistances at 1.0211 followed by 1.0235, and finally 1.0266. Alternatively, a movement to the downside and a paring of gains will usher in supports at 1.0156, then 1.0125, and eventually 1.0101, calculates the Mataf.net analyst team.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.0201  |  CLOSE = 1.0205  |  HIGH = 1.0208  |   LOW = 1.0191
BID = 1.02  |  ASK = 1.0205  |   PERCENT = -0.0392
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

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YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The USD/CHF foreign exchange rate made an attempt at the upside that stalled at the 0.9215 level earlier during the afternoon of European trading.

At the time of writing, the USD/CHF technical pair is operating at the 0.9200 level, down -0.26% Tuesday. Following a break below support. Mataf.net analysts point to the next short-term measures of support 0.9205, then 0.9181, and 0.9147. Alternatively, resistance lies ahead at 0.9261, onto 0.9295, and 0.9318

USD/CHF maintains negative outlook following break below 0.9205

According to the technical analyst team at ICN.com, “The USD/CHF’s bullish bias since last week wasn’t enough to push it towards stabilizing above the harmonic upside support. Moreover, linear regression indicator 34 weakens the upside momentum of the pair and keeps the overall bearish bias. However, trading below 0.9345 keeps the possibility of a downside move valid, as the pair has to break 0.9205 levels to confirm this negative outlook.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9208  |  CLOSE = 0.9204  |  HIGH = 0.9208  |   LOW = 0.9201
BID = 0.9204  |  ASK = 0.9205  |   PERCENT = 0.0435
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the Consumer Price Index for May at 12:30GMT, an important indicator for the Fed at this point, as inflation pressures could encourage the QE tapering process.

"A reading below expected will only suggest the economy continues in slow motion, and that QE will be here to stay", says Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at YoutradeFX.com. "A sudden increase in inflation won't have a big impact as it will be just one stand-alone reading, although a huge deviation close or above 2.0%, will likely be understood as positive for the USD, at least in the short term".

As for EUR/USD, the pair reached a marginal new high of 1.3398 during the European session, but lacked momentum to break above the 1.3400 mark as cautious tone prevails ahead of the FOMC meeting. If EUR/USD breaks its range to the upside, next target will be 1.3434 (Feb 20 high), while on the other hand, immediate supports are seen at the 1.3320 area (Jun 17 & 18 lows) and 1.3295 (Jun 16 low).

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - Investors have long suspected that AUD and CAD are the main components of an 'other' category of currencies.

According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “Confirmation of this next week is not likely to affect FX market pricing significantly, although the AUD/CAD could see some volatility if one of the two currencies emerges as a clear favorite.”

There is another potential consequence too – over 70% of the Australian commonwealth bond market is in foreign hands. Instinctively this given the inherent risk of sudden capital flight should concern investors. However, the IMF's upcoming data release could reduce – but justifiably not eliminate - worries on that front. We are likely to discover that reserve mangers hold the lion's share of the Australian bond market. Their investment horizons are measured in years, not days.

“That means the traditional image of a foreign investor who tends to flee at the first sign of trouble does not apply in this case.” Berry adds. Recent evidence from Japan on this is compelling. Despite the latest JGB convulsions foreigners have not cut and run. At least half of foreign holdings are tucked away on sovereign balance sheets and this has actually been a source of stability for the yen. So the scale of foreign positioning in Australian bonds is not as threatening for AUD as it first appears - a view next week's IMF data is likely to encourage.

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The USD continues to push the USD/CAD higher on Tuesday, driving the pair beyond the key resistance at 1.0200.

USD/CAD focused on CPI

The bullish momentum of the pair would be put to the test later, when the US economy releases its inflation figures for the month of May. “We look for US CPI to print in line with expectations, boosted by gasoline and food prices, while housing starts may marginally disappoint. CPI momentum is beginning to turn higher, and even though the pace of inflation should remain subdued in May, it is likely to mark the rebound in prices after two months of deflation”, noted Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities.

USD/CAD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is up 0.24% at 1.0211 facing the next hurdle at 1.0227 (high Jun.13) followed by 1.0231 (MA30d) and then 1.0288 (high Jun.7). On the flip side, a break below 1.0177 (low Jun.18) would open the door to 1.0150 (low Jun.17) and then 1.0137 (low Jun.14).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.0212  |  CLOSE = 1.0206  |  HIGH = 1.0214  |   LOW = 1.02
BID = 1.0206  |  ASK = 1.0207  |   PERCENT = 0.0588
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - Pairs in the FX market mostly stuck to tight ranges as uncertainty about the future of the US QE program keeps investors on the sideline as the Fed kicks off a 2-day meeting.

EUR/USD saw a small selloff in the wake of Draghi's dovish comments, but then reversed losses and hit a fresh 4-month high of 1.3398 after a solid German ZEW survey.

GBP/USD is among the worst performers, having briefly fallen below 1.5600, weighed by mixed UK data. Meanwhile, USD/JPY managed to climb back above 95.00, supported by gains in the Nikkei futures.

Elsewhere the AUD/USD extended its slide scored a low of 0.9438, while the USD/CAD records mild gains.

Main Headlines in Europe:

Draghi: ECB ready to act

UK: Annual CPI up 3.1% May

UK: Annual PPI – Output rises less than expected in May

UK: Annual Retail Price Index grows 3.1% in May

Germany: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment rises to 38.5 in June

EMU: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment improves to 30.6 in June

G8 calls for a quick implementation of the Eurozone banking union

European equities record narrow gains

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The sterling is intensifying its descent on Tuesday, currently dragging GBP/USD to fresh weekly lows around the key support at 1.5600.

UK CPI weights on GBP/USD

In the opinion of the Research team at RBS, “GBP/USD closed last week at its 200d ma, a level that has often provided topside resistance. The short-term outlook looks dependent on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. On balance, we do not expect to see significant further gains given expectations around the UK outlook have already adjusted significantly”. There are no further events in the UK today, although the release of US consumer prices would keep the pressure on the pair via the greenback.

GBP/USD key levels

At the moment the pair is retreating 0.66% at 1.5616 with the immediate support at 1.5521 (low Jun.11) ahead of 1.5488 (low Jun.7) and finally 1.5426 (61.8% of 1.5008-1.4685). On the upside, a breakout of 1.5723 (high Jun.18) would clear the way to 1.5753 (high Jun.17) and then 1.5789 (61.8% of 1.6380-1/4832).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5614  |  CLOSE = 1.5615  |  HIGH = 1.5617  |   LOW = 1.5612
BID = 1.5612  |  ASK = 1.562  |   PERCENT = -0.0064
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - Precious metals continued their uneven trading Tuesday, with the Fed meeting looming large over investors.

Gold bearishness to return?

Gold prices have traded lower Tuesday, thrown into a state of flux along with currency markets Tuesday. Despite the recent waning of commodities, the yellow metal remains buoyed above the critical 1366 support level, a break of which will signal a drop lower and a return of bearishness. At the time of writing, gold prices has settled at USD $1374.24 per oz. during European trading, operating near its intraday lows.

Silver spot prices in retreat

Silver spot prices also were dealt another blow, following what was a failed break above the 22.00 level yesterday. This key upside target/resistance (previous support) has continuously alluded the white metal, and only prolonged stability above this would help lend strength towards silver. At the current levels, the price of silver has now moved to USD $21.74 per oz. Tuesday, having started the week off on the wrong foot.

WTI turns south

WTI crude oil has broken the descending resistance, only to retest the 98.65 key horizontal resistance level, where it was rejected. A break above 98.65 is required to confirm further upside towards 100.00 and 100.70 major highs. On the other hand, a break below 97.35 intraday support signals a bearish intraday move towards 96.50. In these moments, WTI crude oil is negotiating a price of USD $97.56/bbl Tuesday.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - Last week’s Morning Star (using a blending technique) coupled with the rejection of 141.96 and a bullish turn in the slow stochastic oscillator points to a good chance of recovery for the week.

However, according to Technical Strategist Dmytro Bondar at RBS, “The main caveat to this trend is for Bunds is the 143.94 level (formed by a few Fibonacci retracements), specifically if it gets broken. If so, the main resistance levels would be 144.55 and 145.00 and ultimately 145.43.”

There might also be an initial reaction from the 143.94 level (today), but the short-term view would remain bullish once above 142.95. “The long-term view however remains negative, so if a bounce materializes, it would be seen as a L/T selling opportunity.” Bondar adds.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The European stock built on yesterday’s gains, recording modest gains Tuesday after the release of earlier economic data.

European data surprises

Earlier today in the EMU, the ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (June) came in at 30.6, compared with a figure of 27.6. Meanwhile in Germany, the ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (June) was reported at 38.5, beating expectations of 38.1. Finally, the ZEW – Current Situation (June) yielded a figure of 8.6, missing estimates of 9.5.

Beginning with commodities, the prices of gold and silver are trading at session lows, trading more specifically at USD $1374.80 and $21.74 per oz. respectively. In addition, the price of crude is operating at USD $97.55/bbl Tuesday.

Equities unable to breakout

Moving to indices and composites, the EURO STOXX 50 rose +0.07% as it settles in region of 2704.52, up +1.83 points in these moments. In addition, the FTSE 100 moved higher Tuesday, operating at 6384.74 ascending +54.25 points or +0.86% at the time of writing. Finally, the DAX has strengthened recently as well, trading in the zone of 8220.33 presently +0.06% after a movement of +4.60 points.

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD remains locked around 1.3380 after printing fresh highs in levels just shy of 1.3400 the figure on mixed results from the German ZEW Survey. Market sentiment is slightly biased towards risk appetite, as we get closer to the FOMC announcements tomorrow.

“Last week the market came close to the mid-January high at 1.3404. Directly overhead lies 1.3440/52, the 200-week ma and the 2011-2013 resistance line. This is key resistance and we look for this to hold and provoke failure”, noted Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

In addition, Strategists at UBS G.Yu and G.Berry keep the bullish stance on the pair, adding “Any downside will be limited as the bull trend is intact. Support is at 1.3259 ahead of 1.3163. Resistance is at 1.3390 ahead of 1.3520. Support is at 1.3266”.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Stephen Gallo, European Head, FX Strategy BMO Financial Group offers the major headlines


• ECB’s Draghi says ECB ready to act, ECB has “numerous” policy measures at hand, Thomson Reuters
• ECB’s Draghi says ECB is “far from exit”, Bloomberg
• G8 backs “Abenomics”, expresses concern about Japan’s fiscal policy, Bloomberg
• EU-27 new car registrations match 1993 low in May
• RBA minutes: inflation outlook provides scope for further easing, AUD could fall more on terms of trade,Bloomberg
• <a href="http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/event.aspx?id=0205d838-1106-4d7d-abdd-692f33fb5686">UK CPI at 2.7% y/y in May versus a reading of 2.6% expected, 2.4% previously
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index at 38.5 in June versus 38.1 expected, 36.4 previously

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - G8 leaders, who hold a two-day summit in Enniskillen in North Ireland this week, urged Eurozone countries to increase efforts to form a banking union in the area.

The G8 emphasized the importance of speeding up the process of building the banking union and generally of propping up the Eurozone economy. The officials insisted that it was necessary to continue implementing reforms as the area still remains in recession, even though the impact of the crisis has been waning.

The leaders of the eight wealthiest countries in the world also urged Japan to come up with a credible medium-term fiscal program. As far as the outlook for the global economy is concerned, the G8 agreed that it remains weak.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Strategist Jacqui Douglas for TD Securities said that the UK CPI rebounded in May, rising from 2.4% to 2.7% Y/Y, which was a little stronger than consensus of 2.6% but in line with their forecast.

He said, this reflected a return of prices to normal levels after the timing of Easter pushed travel costs lower across most of Europe. Looking at the next few months, he expects to see CPI pop briefly above 3% again in June (just on time for Carney’s first month as Governor of the BoE), before returning to the high-2s for the next several months.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Karan Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank had previously suggested that the 200 d ma would be a tuff area to crack for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD finding new form

With the previous reversal, she also said a break below the 1.5490 June 7 low is needed to alleviate immediate upside pressure and signal a slide back to the 55 day moving average at 1.5364 en route to the support line at 1.5054. As turbulent as we have seen how these markets can be of late, above Thursday’s 1.5736 high lies the 1.5782 61.8% retracement of this years move, 1.5794 200 week moving average is located here and beyond here lies 1.6040, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down move seen this year.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The IMF announced overnight that, on June 28th, it will reveal for the first time the size of reserve manager holdings in AUD and CAD.

Plans to do so have been in the pipeline for some time but now at last we have a precise date for when to expect this key data release. The IMF already tracks the changing currency composition of reserve manager portfolios. However, currently only USD, EUR, JPY, GBP and CHF holdings are published separately. Holdings of all other currencies are bundled together in a single 'other' category.

Could extant currencies be preferred?

According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “That's good enough to monitor the diversification trend into less liquid currencies over the past four years, but it offers no insight into which 'other' currencies are preferred.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Alexandra Fletcher for BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research said that Asian stocks trade cautiously as better than expected US manufacturing and home builder sentiment data overnight strengthened investor expectations of a fine tuning of the Fed's stimulus program.

He went onto say that the Hang Seng was down by 0.65% while Philippine stocks were up by more than 3% on domestic factors. He noted that Asian currencies were mostly weaker against the US dollar with the Indonesian Rupiah depreciating up to 0.61%. Key economic data releasing later today includes US housing starts and building permits data. Focus in EEMEA will be on CBT rates decision in Turkey along with the April average gross wages in Hungary and May average gross wages in Poland.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - NZD/USD printed a low of the session at 0.7940 and below the 200d ma

NZD/USD was printing 0.8100 last night before the pair was caught up in the move lower when the AUD slid after the release of the RBA Minutes (to a low of $US0.9500), dragging the Kiwi along with it (-1% each). Said Alvin Pontoh for TD Securities. He went onto say that paradoxically, there was nothing in the Minutes to suggest that the RBA was in any rush to cut rates, and indeed the overnight swap markets pared its expectation for a July rate cut from 27% to 22% following the Minutes’ release.

NZD/USD posed for 0.7760

NZD/USD has a resistance around the pivot 0.8020 while momentum indicators bring 0.7900 into focus targeting 0.7760 within a heavy set of bearish indicators, breaking through EMA10 and SMA200.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.7962  |  CLOSE = 0.7963  |  HIGH = 0.7965  |   LOW = 0.796
BID = 0.7961  |  ASK = 0.7965  |   PERCENT = -0.0126
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The USD/JPY technical pair bolted higher during European trading, establishing fresh session highs at 94.45 Tuesday.

USD/JPY must reside above 93.55 to avert bearish extension

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The USD/JPY is fluctuating within a limited range below its linear regression indicator 34, keeping the possibility of a downside move valid. The pair will face a barrier before extending bearishness, which is 38.2% correction at 93.55. Ultimately however, breaking 93.55 levels might get the pair into a new downside wave.”

At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is exploding higher at a rate of +0.90%, negotiating an exchange rate of 95.35. After moving above resistance at 95.24, the Mataf.net analyst team points to the next corrective measures for the pair at 95.70, onto 96.18.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 95.38  |  CLOSE = 95.34  |  HIGH = 95.44  |   LOW = 95.28
BID = 95.33  |  ASK = 95.35  |   PERCENT = 0.04
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The GBP/USD continues its march south on Tuesday, accelerated after the consumer prices in the British economy rose beyond expectations during May.

GBP/USD extends its correction lower

After Monday’s highs around 1.5750, the sterling has initiated a bear-correction to the current lows in the mid 1.56s, as sentiment worsened ahead of the FOMC meeting due tomorrow. Recall that the Swiss bank UBS remains bullish on the pair, as Strategists G.Yu and G.Berry commented, “Yesterday the pair posted a new recovery high. Our focus is on the strong resistance at 1.5789; a closing break above this would be further positive opening 1.5879. Support is at 1.5616”.

GBP/USD levels to watch

The pair is now losing 0.0.42% at 1.5653 with the next support at 1.5626 (MA10d) followed by 1.5616 (low Jun.14) and then 1.5521 (low Jun.11). On the upside, a breakout of 1.5723 (high Jun.18) would expose 1.5753 (high Jun.17) and finally 1.5789 (61.8% of 1.6380-1/4832).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5652  |  CLOSE = 1.5656  |  HIGH = 1.566  |   LOW = 1.565
BID = 1.5655  |  ASK = 1.5656  |   PERCENT = -0.0255
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The EUR/USD foreign exchange rate could not summit the 1.3400 level during European trading (1.3999 session high), easing lower in recent moments after the failed attempt.

At the time of writing, the EUR/USD has retreated back to 1.3384, still up +0.10% above its opening Tuesday. Despite the recent falter, Mataf.net analysts point to the next level of resistive correction for the EUR/USD at 1.3391, then 1.3419, and finally 1.3455. On the pullback, supportive structures will trigger at 1.3327, ahead of 1.3291 and finally 1.3263.

EUR/USD full steams ahead

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The EUR/USD managed to stabilize above 1.3345 – therefore, the possibility of extending the bullish move is valid today and the linear regression indicators are positive supporting our expectations.”

EUR/USD in flux after ZEW surprises

Earlier today in the EMU, the ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (June) came in at 30.6, compared with a figure of 27.6. Meanwhile in Germany, the ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (June) was reported at 38.5, beating expectations of 38.1. Finally, the ZEW – Current Situation (June) yielded a figure of 8.6, missing estimates of 9.5.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3383  |  CLOSE = 1.3383  |  HIGH = 1.3387  |   LOW = 1.3379
BID = 1.3383  |  ASK = 1.3384  |   PERCENT = 0
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (London) - AUD/USD has broken lower to reach 0.9440, in a continuation from overnights drop zone around 0.9570.

Last night, the AUD/USD fell under further pressure in the market following he RBA minutes which revealed that the RBA are giving a green light to Aussie dollar weakness, concerned in the main to chinas slow down and uncertainty with their major trading partner.

AUD/USD support seen 0.9388

Karen Jones at Commerzbank has said that a negative bias will remain while capped by 0.9792, the current June high.
The 0.9388 support represents a major break down point longer term. A close below here will introduce scope to 0.9147, then 0.8550 en route to 0.8068, the 2010 low.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.945  |  CLOSE = 0.9451  |  HIGH = 0.9455  |   LOW = 0.9446
BID = 0.9451  |  ASK = 0.9453  |   PERCENT = -0.0106
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The EUR/CHF technical cross careened into negative territory Tuesday, breaking briefly below the 1.2300 barrier during European trading.

EUR/CHF roiled on rising sentiments in Europe

Earlier today in the EMU, the ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (June) came in at 30.6, compared with a figure of 27.6. Meanwhile in Germany, the ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (June) was reported at 38.5, beating expectations of 38.1. Finally, the ZEW – Current Situation (June) yielded a figure of 8.6, missing estimates of 9.5.

At the time of writing, the EUR/CHF foreign exchange rate has bounce off earlier lows (1.2291) to retest the 1.2300 barrier. According to the Mataf.net analyst team, the pair is residing at first support at 1.2299, and will encounter additional measures at 1.2269, ahead of 1.2236. On the ascension, a break above the 1.2362 handle will initiate resistances at 1.2395 and 1.2425.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.2303  |  CLOSE = 1.2305  |  HIGH = 1.2306  |   LOW = 1.2298
BID = 1.2303  |  ASK = 1.2304  |   PERCENT = -0.0163
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The GBP/JPY foreign exchange rate eased mightily off of earlier highs during European trading (149.62), following what was otherwise an upbeat data release out of the UK.

GBP/JPY falls on upbeat UK data

In the United Kingdom, Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at +2.2% in May, beating estimates of +2.1%. In addition, the Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed +3.1% in May, exceeding expectations of +2.6%. Finally, the Consumer Price Index (MoM) netted a rise of +0.2% in May, compared with projections calling for only +0.1%.

At the time of writing, the GBP/JPY technical pair is still entrenched in positive territory at 149.03 or a +0.37% thus far. Given the recent levels of strength, Mataf.net analysts calculate resistive measures for the pair at 149.51, onto 150.04 and 150.62. On the decline, a break below the 148.40 handle will initiate supports at 147.82 and 147.29.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 149.04  |  CLOSE = 148.99  |  HIGH = 149.05  |   LOW = 148.98
BID = 148.96  |  ASK = 149.01  |   PERCENT = 0.04
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (London) - EUR/GBP has printed a high of 0.8547, trading off from the support line formed yesterday at 0.8500.

We have seen the first raft of key data releases this morning in the market ahead of US data coming out this afternoon. In the UK, we had a mixed bag that revealed, all in all, that core CPI was higher than previous and beating expectations. Core CPI for the month of May, year on year, came in at 2.2% vrs 2.1% expected and 2% previous while month on month remained at 0.2%, beating expectations at 0.1%. CPI including food and energy printed much higher than expectations at 3.1% vrs 2.6% expected and 2.4% previous year on year. Meanwhile, sentiment for business activity in the Eurozone picked up measured by the ZEW survey printing 30.6 vrs 27.6 previous, and similarly the same went for the sentiment in Germany with ZEW printing 38.5 vrs 38.1 expected and 36.4 previous. Sentiment vrs current printed more bullish for the Euro.

EUR/GBP back on track

Spot had been unable to break the top-side Bollinger band in recent weeks, allowing it to touch lower just beneath. With the recent bounce back in the channel, closing the gap widening and the bandwidth again, the pair is back in the green while ma’s are offering buy signals on the hourly chart. The pair has a key support at 0.8470 while targeting May highs at 0.8600.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.8545  |  CLOSE = 0.8546  |  HIGH = 0.8549  |   LOW = 0.8542
BID = 0.8545  |  ASK = 0.8547  |   PERCENT = -0.0117
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Extremely

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The EUR/JPY technical cross drifted nearly 30 pips off session highs Tuesday (127.57) in recent miments, on the heels of some key economic data.

EUR/JPY bullishness hinges on stability above 125.00

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The EUR/JPY pair rebounded slightly yesterday after testing the key horizontal support at 125.00 level. The bullish correctional bounce could extend further possibly towards a retest of the broken ascending support near 128.00. Ultimately, the bullish scenario requires the pivotal level at 125.00 to remain intact.”

In the EMU, the ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (June) came in at 30.6, compared with a figure of 27.6. Meanwhile in Germany, the ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (June) was reported at 38.5, beating expectations of 38.1. Finally, the ZEW – Current Situation (June) yielded a figure of 8.6, missing estimates of 9.5.

EUR/JPY breaches first resistance

Amidst the recent pullback Tuesday, the EUR/JPY is now settling at 127.31 in these moments, securing a robust gain of +0.79% above it’s opening. After surging above calculated resistance at 127.05, the Mataf.net analyst team points to the next levels of resistive correction at 127.42, onto 127.93.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 127.34  |  CLOSE = 127.37  |  HIGH = 127.43  |   LOW = 127.27
BID = 127.35  |  ASK = 127.38  |   PERCENT = -0.02
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - Mixed results from the German ZEW Survey in June lifted the EUR/USD to the boundaries of the critical resistance at 1.3400 on Tuesday.

EUR/USD keeps multi-month highs

The shared currency accelerated its intraday upside after the Economic Sentiment in the firs economy of the bloc improved to 38.5, while the Current Situation fell to 8.6, missing the median at 9.5. The pair kept the upper end of today’s range however, retracing some pips after fresh highs around 1.3400 the figure.

EUR/USD key levels

At the moment the pair is up 0.11% at 1.3382 and a surpass of 1.3434 (high Feb.20) would target 1.3456 (high Feb.14) en route to 1.3481 (76.4% of 1.3711-1.2740). On the downside, support levels align at 1.3295 (low Jun.14) followed by 1.3279 (low Jun.13) and finally 1.3266 (low Jun.12).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3383  |  CLOSE = 1.3381  |  HIGH = 1.3399  |   LOW = 1.337
BID = 1.3379  |  ASK = 1.3383  |   PERCENT = 0.0149
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The USD/CHF foreign exchange rate fell off a cliff Tuesday, breaking through support after the release of economic data in the EMU and Germany.

USD/CHF tumbles on European data

In the EMU, the ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (June) came in at 30.6, compared with a figure of 27.6. Meanwhile in Germany, the ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (June) was reported at 38.5, beating expectations of 38.1. Finally, the ZEW – Current Situation (June) yielded a figure of 8.6, missing estimates of 9.5.

In these moments, the pair is trading at 0.9180, down -0.49% below it’s opening. Following an earlier drop below the 0.9204 support, Mataf.net analysts identify the next short-term measures of correction at 0.9268, then 0.9181, and 0.9147. Meanwhile, resistance lies ahead at 0.9261, onto 0.9295, and 0.9318.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9195  |  CLOSE = 0.9188  |  HIGH = 0.9203  |   LOW = 0.9174
BID = 0.9187  |  ASK = 0.919  |   PERCENT = 0.0762
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment rose to 30.6 points in June, from 27.6 points in May, the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung reported on Tuesday.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The German ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment improved to 38.5 points in June, from 36.4 points in May, the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung reported today. Market consensus pointed to an increase to only 38.1 points.

The German ZEW Survey – Current Situation fell to 8.6 points from 8.9 points and against forecasts of a rise to 9.5 points.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - On an annual basis the UK DCLG House Price Index increased 2.6% in April, following 2.7% growth in March, according to data released today by the Office for National Statistics. This result is in line with expectations.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Year-over-year the UK Retail Price Index rose 3.1% in May, up from the 2.9% increase registered the previous month, National Statistics reported on Tuesday. This result is in line with consensus.

On a monthly basis the UK Retail Price Index climbed 0.2%, following +0.3%, as expected.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - In the year to May 2013 UK PPI – Output n.s.a. grew 1.2% in May, in comparison with a increase of 0.9% last month, National Statistics reported today. Analysts expected more growth of 1.5%.

On a monthly basis UK PPI – Output edged remained unchanged in May, following a 0.1% fall in April, as expected.

Annual UK PPI – Input n.s.a. rose 2.2% in May,compared with April's 0.1% drop and below forecasts of 2.5% growth. Between April and May UK PPI – Input fell 0.3%, after declining 2.3% between March and April and against projections of no change.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - According to data released today by National Statistics, UK annual inflation rose 3.1% in May, up from 2.4% growth registered the previous month. This result is above forecasts of 2.6%. On a monthly basis UK CPI was at 0.2% in May, following +0.2% in April, slightly above expectations of +0.1%.

Year-over-year Core CPI rose 2.2% in May, up from 2% in April and above consensus of +2.1%. On a monthly basis Core CPI declined 0.2% in June, following a 0.2% fall in May.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - GBP/USD has printed a high through 1.5700 to 1.5710 the high in the 5 minute chart only to reverse back into 1.5670/90 territories.

A relatively mixed bag of data which was released has left the pair at a cross roads while we await the FOMC tomorrow and other key data lined up form the US for this afternoon. In the UK, core CPI YoY gave the pound a lift coming in beating expectations at 2.2% vrs 2.1% expected and up on 2% previous. The market has seen a raft of recently bullish UK data, and these numbers are likely to keep the pair bid and supported for the time being. The pair has previously been feeling a little heavy around the 200d ma, but with such a print in the green this zone remains with sight.

GBP/USD levels

Karan Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank had previously suggested that the 200 d ma would be a tuff area to crack for the pair. With the previous reversal, she also said a break below the 1.5490 June 7 low is needed to alleviate immediate upside pressure and signal a slide back to the 55 day moving average at 1.5364 en route to the support line at 1.5054. As turbulent as we have seen how these markets can be of late, above Thursday’s 1.5736 high lies the 1.5782 61.8% retracement of this years move, 1.5794 200 week moving average is located here and beyond here lies 1.6040, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down move seen this year.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5694  |  CLOSE = 1.5693  |  HIGH = 1.5711  |   LOW = 1.5674
BID = 1.5692  |  ASK = 1.5697  |   PERCENT = 0.0064
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Lodnon) - EUR/JPY has jumped higher since ECB president Draghi spoke this morning on the open of the European session.

EUR/JPY is printing 125.57 as a high score, some 110 pips higher on the session so far. The Yen has been hit else-where this morning, despite a moderate improvement Japanese Industrial Production which came in better than the previous at -3.4% vrs -6.7%.

EUR/JPY charted an inside day leaving the view unchanged.

Kare Jones, analyst for Commerzbank had already said that, in the near term, the risk is that we will see a small rebound off the 125.00/124.45 band of support (mid-April low and the 23.6% retracement of the entire move up from the July 2012 low) and we are now seeing this move perhaps. This is a key band of support but she said despite a bounce off it being seen, risks remain on the downside. 124.45 is considered by her to be the break down point to 118.82/65, the February and April lows and the 38.2% retracement of the same move.
She can see minor resistance around the 127.71 February peak. She explains that immediate downside pressure will be maintained while EUR/JPY stays below the 131.30 June 11 high.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 127.48  |  CLOSE = 127.42  |  HIGH = 127.53  |   LOW = 127.4
BID = 127.38  |  ASK = 127.48  |   PERCENT = 0.05
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - A sudden burst of buying interest in the bloc currency has lifted the EUR/USD to fresh multi-month highs around 1.3390, last seen in late February.

EUR/USD turns positive, eyes on 1.3400

In light of the upcoming ZEW Survey, Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at BTMU, added, “Sentiment amongst German financial analysts is expected to have improved further in June in anticipation of a recovery in growth in the second half of this year in Germany. Evidence of a gradual improvement in cyclical conditions in the euro-zone is helping to support the euro in the near-term”.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is up 0.11% at 1.3382 and a surpass of 1.3434 (high Feb.20) would target 1.3456 (high Feb.14) en route to 1.3481 (76.4% of 1.3711-1.2740). On the downside, support levels align at 1.3295 (low Jun.14) followed by 1.3279 (low Jun.13) and finally 1.3266 (low Jun.12).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3378  |  CLOSE = 1.3382  |  HIGH = 1.3385  |   LOW = 1.3378
BID = 1.338  |  ASK = 1.3383  |   PERCENT = -0.0299
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (London) - EUR/GBP has ticked up sealing the gap formed on Fridays close / Mondays open.

While the market has been waiting for UK CPI due at 8.30 GMT, we have been listening to ECB president Draghi speaking. While the EUR/USD dropped initially, the market has since digested his comments. EUR/USD has moved higher again while cable has shed some significant pips overnight and through the European session also. EUR/GBP has been benefiting from this activity, up 30 pips since the open. We now await the ZEW for Eurozone and Germany, with expectations to be a moderate uptick in activity.

EUR/GBP back on track

Spot had been unable to break the top-side Bollinger band in recent weeks, allowing it to touch lower just beneath. With the recent bounce back in the channel, closing the gap widening and the bandwidth again, the pair is back in the green while ma’s are offering buy signals on the hourly chart. The pair has a key support at 0.8470 while targeting May highs at 0.8600.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.852  |  CLOSE = 0.8526  |  HIGH = 0.8528  |   LOW = 0.852
BID = 0.8525  |  ASK = 0.8528  |   PERCENT = -0.0704
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The inflation figures are due next in the British economy. Market consensus expects consumer prices to have expanded at an annual pace of 2.6% during May, up from April’s rise of 2.4%. Core prices would follow suit, rising 2.1% vs. 2.0% previous.

The sterling continues to hover around its 200-day moving average at 1.5700 on Tuesday, although trading on the back foot ahead of the upcoming releases. The critical levels to watch on the GBP/USD are located at 1.5723 (session highs so far) and then 1.5753 (Monday’s highs). On the downside, the next support level lies at 1.5663 (today’s bottom) and then the 10-day moving average at 1.5626.

“A recovery above 1.5660 on the other hand, will deny the possibility of a downside continuation and see pair aiming back higher towards the 1.5710/30 price zone”, comments Valeria Bednarik, Currency Analyst at YoutradeFX.com.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - GBP/USD is printing much lower on the London open having failed to hold onto the 200d ma.

1.5650 would close the gap on the chart after Fridays fall to a low of 1.5616 and Mondays Asian open above 1.5700. Today is busy on the calendar as we head into the FOMC tomorrow. Key data to monitor will be US CPI and housing starts in the afternoon, while coming up this morning prior to those releases, UK core CPI is expected at 2.1% vrs a previous 2%.

GBP/USD key levels

Karan Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank had previously suggested that the 200 d ma would be a tuff area to crack for the pair. With the reversal, she also said a break below the 1.5490 June 7 low is needed to alleviate immediate upside pressure and signal a slide back to the 55 day moving average at 1.5364 en route to the support line at 1.5054. As turbulent as we have seen how these markets can be of late, above Thursday’s 1.5736 high lies the 1.5782 61.8% retracement of this years move, 1.5794 200 week moving average is located here and beyond here lies 1.6040, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down move seen this year.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5666  |  CLOSE = 1.5676  |  HIGH = 1.5677  |   LOW = 1.5663
BID = 1.5675  |  ASK = 1.5678  |   PERCENT = -0.0638
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The pessimism surrounding the euro continues to exacerbate the intraday decline, pushing the EUR/USD to fresh lows in the proximity of 1.3330 on Tuesday.

Draghi’s comments weighted on EUR/USD

The selling pressure in the euro has intensified after President Draghi emphasized that the central bank has an open mind on non-standard monetary policy. The central banker also underlined that the stability in prices remains the main objective. In light of the upcoming ZEW Survey, Strategist Alvin Pontoh at TD Securities commented, “We expect a mixed message from the ZEW, with small upside risks to current sentiment but future expectations look likely to remain close to flat, which would disappoint the consensus view for improvement in June”.

EUR/USD tech levels

At the moment, the pair is down 0.20% at 1.3338 with the next support at 1.3295 (low Jun.14) followed by 1.3279 (low Jun.13) and finally 1.3266 (low Jun.12). On the upside, a break above 1.3390 (high Jun.13) would open the door to 1.3434 (high Feb.20) and then 1.3456 (high Feb.14).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3336  |  CLOSE = 1.3336  |  HIGH = 1.3338  |   LOW = 1.3331
BID = 1.3335  |  ASK = 1.3339  |   PERCENT = 0
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (London) - USD/CHF has been range bound between 0.9220 / 0.9270 topside (April/May lows), and a long way down from the 0.9840 highs of May.

The SNB meets this Thursday and it will be interesting to see if the SNB has something new to offer after the aggressive downgrade to inflation expectations in their last meeting. Before then, mind you, FOMC will be key focus in the market and would be more likely the catalyst for a direction one way or the other for the time being. Stephen Gallo at BMO said last week that they expect the SNB to strike a more dovish tone at this week’s assessment of monetary policy, leaving market participants with the right incentives to consider progressive CHF sales as a viable opportunity for profit under current circumstances.

USD/CHF ripe for a bounce

On the basis of recent weekly changes in USD/CHF, Stephen Gallo said last week the pair appears ripe for a nice bounce. Indeed, the pair have halted and on the charts it appears that momentum is building up to the upside this week. With USD/CHF positioning nicely, he thinks that Bernanke and the FOMC opting to maintain a rough market consensus for a September tapering will make USD/CHF an excellent buying opportunity from the aforementioned support area, should the SNB choose to go “dovish” on Thursday. MA’s in the short term are offering a bullish signal while in the longer term, the pair remain offered and ma’s indicate further to go with a neutral stance on the weekly charts.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9253  |  CLOSE = 0.9257  |  HIGH = 0.9261  |   LOW = 0.9252
BID = 0.9255  |  ASK = 0.926  |   PERCENT = -0.0432
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - ECB President Mario Draghi, who appeared today at a farewell conference for Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer in Jerusalem, said that the situation in the Eurozone was improving and that the central bank was ready to deploy standard interest rate policy and non-standard measures “if circumstances warrant”, to prop up the recovery.

The ECB head said that some of the measures might have unintended consequences but that it should not be a reason for not using them. Draghi assured that the ECB's monetary policy has “regained steering capacity” and that the Governing Council is still able to “deliver our objective of price stability by the low level of interest rates.”

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - Monday’s bullish attempt of the Aussie dollar faltered in the proximity of 0.9570, sparking a pullback in AUD/USD that found support around 0.9500 the figure overnight.

RBA Minutes weighting on AUD/USD

The RBA released its minutes early morning in Asia, and one of the main issues was the still high level of the AUD. “The picture remains the same, the RBA has a dovish bias and is focused on the transition from mining sector led growth to the non-mining sector. There hasn’t been any new insight on this recently and, hence, the RBA is pretty much repeating previous views”, commented Adrian Foster, Strategist at Rabobank.

AUD/USD support/resistance levels

As of writing the pair is down 0.35% at 0.9510 and a breach of the psychological level at 0.9500 would bring 0.9430 (low Jun.13). On the upside, resistance levels align at 0.9655 (high Jun.14) ahead of 0.9665 (high Jun.13) and then 0.9675 (high Jun.6).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9509  |  CLOSE = 0.9504  |  HIGH = 0.9513  |   LOW = 0.9499
BID = 0.9503  |  ASK = 0.9505  |   PERCENT = 0.0526
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (London) - The USD/JPY highs of 103.75 in May seem long forgotten as the correction brings us to 0.9428, and not far off from the April lows 0.9256.

The pair has found support here for the time being as the market prepares itself for FOMC tomorrow. This is overshadowing such data as last nights Japanese Industrial Production which came in better than the previous at -3.4% vrs -6.7%. Coming up today, we also have the release of US housing starts and US CPI.

USD/JPY on standby

Analyst, Karen Jones for Commerzbank said that USD/JPY has ground to a halt just above the 93.58 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2012-13 rise, and this has held the initial test. She explains that near term rallies are expected to remain tepid and should fail at 97.12/99.41 to leave overall pressure still on the downside. She sights any failure at 93.58 would be expected to trigger losses to the 50% retracement at 90.43.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 94.86  |  CLOSE = 94.87  |  HIGH = 94.91  |   LOW = 94.78
BID = 94.86  |  ASK = 94.87  |   PERCENT = -0.01
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The bearish tone in the shared currency continues to drive the EUR/USD lower on Tuesday, prolonging its decline from Monday’s highs around 1.3380.

EUR/USD cautious ahead of German ZEW

The German ZEW Survey will be in the limelight during the European morning, with market forecasts expecting both the Economic Sentiment and the Current Situation to improve to 38.1 and 9.5 for the month of June, respectively. Market participants will also focus on the speech by ECB’s M.Drgahi.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is down 0.09% at 1.3354 with the next support at 1.3295 (low Jun.14) followed by 1.3279 (low Jun.13) and finally 1.3266 (low Jun.12). On the upside, a break above 1.3390 (high Jun.13) would open the door to 1.3434 (high Feb.20) and then 1.3456 (high Feb.14).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3349  |  CLOSE = 1.3348  |  HIGH = 1.335  |   LOW = 1.3346
BID = 1.3348  |  ASK = 1.3349  |   PERCENT = 0.0075
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 1  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Cable is last at fresh session lows 1.5699 retracing from session highs at 1.5739, on the back of broad USD strength. The pair is about flat for the week so far, capped below yesterday's weekly and fresh 4-month highs at 1.5750, ahead of key risk event at 08:30 GMT in the form of UK CPI.

The pair holding a positive bias

According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at Fxstreet.com, “The pair maintains a strong positive bias, with a break above 1.5770 probably triggering stops and seeing a strong price acceleration.” In words of analyst at Windsor Brokers and contributor at YoutradeFX.com Slobodan Drvenica, “Immediate targets lay at 1.5780/88, double Fibonacci resistance, 61.8% retracement/100% expansion,” with the downside “ideally contained above 1.5615, to keep bulls intact,” Drevenica said.

Key technical levels

Immediate support to the downside for GBP/USD lies at yesterday's weekly lows 1.5680, followed by Thursday's lows at 1.5644, and Friday's lows at 1.5614. To the upside, closest resistance shows at recent session/Monday's Asian session/Thursday's highs 1.5739, followed by yesterday's fresh 4-month highs at 1.5750, and Feb 11 highs at 1.5808.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5699  |  CLOSE = 1.57  |  HIGH = 1.5702  |   LOW = 1.5698
BID = 1.5699  |  ASK = 1.57  |   PERCENT = -0.0064
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 1  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - In what promises to be an extremely busy and volatile week for EUR/USD, the pair has started out on a strong note climbing 21 pips to close at 1.3365. Analysts are already looking towards the upcoming FOMC meeting which will conclude on June 19th as a major catalyst which may dictate price action this week.

Analysts at Rabobank went on to discuss a few reasons why they believe the market is so on edge about what the Fed will have to say regarding tapering asset purchases. “The market uncertainty about the pace of QE3 is caused not only by the wide divergence of views within the FOMC, but also by the mixed signals that the economic data are giving. In fact, several FOMC members have admitted that they will need to see more data to get a clear picture where the US economy is heading.”

In going on to further elaborate about this topic, Rabobank mentioned, “The words of Bernanke and other Fed speakers are only indicative of FOMC participants’ reaction functions to economic data. They do not tell us anything about the economic data that they will be reacting to. The Fed is not better at forecasting the economy than others.”

In conclusion, Rabobank added they do not believe current economic data is strong enough to warrant any QE3 tapering in the near term. Furthermore, they cited weak inflation data, as well as non-farm payroll releases which continue to come in below 200k as two of the primary reasons the Fed will hesitate in stopping asset purchases.

Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi-UFJ went on to point out some important developments in the most recent weekly IMM position report which may also have influence on the pair as we progress throughout the week. “Our sense that EUR/USD is a lot more about positioning than anything positive about the euro-zone is certainly consistent with the weekly IMM data, which revealed a sharp reduction in euro short positions – in the past two weeks euro short positions have dropped by 80% to the smallest total since February.” To conclude his view, Halpenny went on to comment given the massive unwind the pair has seen over the past few weeks, EUR/USD will most likely have trouble advancing higher from current levels.

Thomas Anthonj, FX Strategist at JP Morgan is still of the opinion the most recent move higher up towards the 1.3400 level is nothing more than a counter-trend rally. “The big picture in EUR/USD remains negative as long as 1.3480/1.3520 is not broken decisively,” Anthonj added. In further discussing the bearish outlook, Anthonj went on to comment a minimum decline toward 1.2436 is expected. In conclusion Athonj commented, “A clear break above 1.3521 would negate the bearish view, and may set the stage a much broader recovery in EUR/USD."

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3353  |  CLOSE = 1.3348  |  HIGH = 1.3354  |   LOW = 1.3347
BID = 1.3346  |  ASK = 1.335  |   PERCENT = 0.0375
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - USD has advanced across the board today in the Asia-Pacific specially against Aussie, but also against Yen, Euro, Pound, or Kiwi, back to 80.71 for the USD index spot (DXY) paring some of the losses from late NY session when fell from weekly highs at 80.87.

EUR/USD has printed session lows at 1.3353, and AUD/USD at 0.9499, while USD/JPY posted session highs at 94.95. Gold and Oil as usual in last trading days little changed although both slightly to the downside, with local share markets mostly trading in the negative.

RBA minutes showed the Australian central bank left current stance of monetary policy as appropriate, the RBA said, while leaving door open for further easing given the inflation outlook, in case should that be required to support demand. China CB leading index came in lower than expected at +0.3% from previous +1.5%, at lowest level of 2013.

Main headlines in the Asian Session:

Japan’s economy minister Amari: Abenomics well received at G8 summit

Flash: The Fed 'tapering’ will happen - Nomura

Commodities Brief: Precious metals still searching for direction

RBA minutes: Inflation outlook provides scope for further easing

AUD/USD plummets below 0.9530 post-RBA minutes

China CB Leading Economic Index down to 0.3 in May from 1.5

Today’s option expiries

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The IMF announced that on June 28th it will reveal for the first time the size of reserve manager holdings in AUD and CAD, an unprecedented occurrence, that according to UBS FX Strategist Gareth Berry, could see some
some volatility in AUD/CAD depending on the holdings composition to be unveiled.

Berry notes: "The IMF already tracks the changing currency composition of reserve manager portfolios, with only USD, EUR, JPY, GBP and CHF holdings published separately. Holdings of all other currencies are bundled together in a single 'other' category."

That, up until now, has offers no insight into which 'other' currencies are preferred, Berry says, adding that "We have long suspected that AUD and CAD are the main components of the 'other' category, and while confirmation of this next week is not likely to affect pricing significantly, some AUDCAD volatility if one of the two emerges as a clear favourite may be seen."

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The AUD/JPY is inching higher in Asia trade, at one point trading as high as 90.71 before giving up early gains and currently sitting up seven pips at 90.17.

RBA minutes release has little influence thus far

Earlier in the session, the RBA released the minutes from their most recent monthly meeting. Thus far, the release has had very little influence as the pair consolidates in a narrow range. YoutradeFX.com took a detailed look into the release and went on to breakdown some of the important developments. From the RBA: "Inflation outlook as currently assessed might provide some scope for further easing, should that be required to support demand." On the Australian Dollar, the central bank said the currency remains "noticeably" lower, yet still high relative to export prices. The RBA stated that "it is possible that the Australian dollar will fall further with the drop in terms of trade”, YoutradeFX.com added.

Technical set up still provides bearish influence

The YoutradeFX.com Trend Index remains in bearish set up on the daily chart. Furthermore, price remains below both the 9 and 20 dma’s which is also a bearish technical development. On a final note, the RSI (14) has been unable to build any value above the 40 level indicating momentum sellers may still hold a “sell the rally” vs. “buy the dip” mentality. Initial resistance sits at 91.54 (previous day high), while first support comes in at 89.93 (previous day low).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 90.12  |  CLOSE = 90.19  |  HIGH = 90.24  |   LOW = 90.09
BID = 90.17  |  ASK = 90.19  |   PERCENT = -0.08
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Local share markets in the Asia-Pacific are mostly all in the negative with the exception of Korean Kospi (just the opposite of yesterday) which trades up +0.18% for the session being. Led by US SP500 futures that trade near session lows, retracing from a +0.76% advanced for the week by the NY close, Nikkei index is down -0.70% below the 13k mark, after a soft positive start to session highs above 13140.

Australian ASX index is down -0.98%, while Hong-Kong's Hang-Seng -0.78%, and Shanghai Composite index also down -0.38%. Sentiment for the day is for a mild risk-off, with the USD advancing across the board, ahead of big day Wednesday with FOMC.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - After trading as high as 149.43 at one point in the day, the GBP/JPY encountered firm resistance and leaked lower later in the day to finish up 34 pips at 148.44.

UK CPI data due out at 8:30GMT

Market participants should be aware that the UK will be released its latest CPI data later on in the session. Analysts at Rabobank decided to shed some light on the upcoming release. “The UK CPI release is anticipated to be a non-event as it is expected to remain within the BoE’s 1-3% target band (at 2.6% YoY) and as the market looks more to the changes that the new governor, Mark Carney, might introduce to the BoE’s modus operandi when he takes the chair in early July,” Rabobank concluded.

Technical set up still favors the bear camp

From a longer term technical perspective, the technical set up on the daily chart continues to give the bear camp the advantage. The YoutradeFX.com Trend Index remains strongly bearish on the daily chart, while the ob/os index remains neutral. Furthermore, both short term moving averages and the RSI (14) are also bearish. Often times when these indicators all line up in a bearish set up, it may help to influence a “sell the rally” mentality as we progress throughout the week. Initial resistance remains at 149.43 (previous day high), while first support sits at 147.85 (previous day low)

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 148.99  |  CLOSE = 148.78  |  HIGH = 148.99  |   LOW = 148.77
BID = 148.75  |  ASK = 148.82  |   PERCENT = 0.14
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - After trading as high as 149.43 at one point in the day, the GBP/JPYencountered firm resistance and leaked lower later in the day to finish up 34 pips at 148.44.

UK CPI data due out at 8:30GMT

Market participants should be aware that the UK will be released its latest CPI data later on in the session. Analysts at Rabobank decided to shed some light on the upcoming release. “The
Technical set up still favors the bear camp

From a longer term technical perspective, the set up on the daily chart appears to give the bear camp the advantage. The YoutradeFX.com Trend Index remains strongly bearish on the daily chart, while the ob/os index remains neutral. Furthermore, both short term moving averages and the RSI (14) are also bearish. Often times when these indicators all line up in a bearish set up, it may help to influence a “sell the rally” mentality as we progress throughout the week. Initial resistance remains at 149.43 (previous day high), while first support sits at 147.85 (previous day low).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 148.99  |  CLOSE = 148.91  |  HIGH = 148.99  |   LOW = 148.9
BID = 148.89  |  ASK = 148.92  |   PERCENT = 0.05
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The big picture in EUR/USD remains negative as long as 1.3480/1.3520 is not broken decisively, according to JP Morgan FX Straregist Thomas Anthonj.

Anthonj still believes that "The big picture is still favoring the view that the recovery from 1.2746 (April low) is nothing else but a classical 3- step countertrend rally with a maximum upside potential of 1.3483/1.3521 (int. 76.4 %/pivot)."

Amid this bearish view, Anthonj explains how they have opened a strategic short position, "in expectation of a minimum decline to 1.2436/26 and intend to add up either at 1.3450 or on a break below key-support at 1.3177/73 (pivot/minor 38.2 %) as a break below the latter would confirm the countertrend rally top in place" the Strategist notes.

A clear break above 1.3521 would negate Anthonj's bearish view, and may set the stage for what he calls "a much broader recovery in EUR/USD."

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/JPYfinished the day slightly higher, climbing 65 pips to finish at 126.27. Currently, the pair is up another 38 pips during the Asia session at 126.64.

German ZEW on tap at 9:00GMT

Economic data in the coming session will be fairly busy from both regions. To kick things off, Japan will release a couple of reports at 4:30GMT including Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. Later on the day, we will see the German ZEW figures which will be released at 9:00GMT. According to analysts at Rabobank, “Germany’s ZEW is of interest for what it signals about investor and analyst reaction to recent market volatility. A small improvement is expected, suggesting respondents are not too concerned.”

EUR/JPY short term charts still promote a bearish tilt

Val Bednarik, Chief Analyst at YoutradeFX.com gave some of her most recent thoughts on the current technical set up of the short term time frame charts. “The EUR/JPY found sellers around the 127.00 level, former support and now strong resistance, where the hourly 100 SMA stands now. While indicators stands flat above their midlines, moving averages continue heading lower above current price and distance in between both, 100 and 200 SMA’s widening, which keeps the pressure to the downside.” In conclusion, Bedanarik went on to mention the mid day sell off in US stocks also seemed to promote some intra day selling in the Yen crosses.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 126.6  |  CLOSE = 126.56  |  HIGH = 126.71  |   LOW = 126.53
BID = 126.55  |  ASK = 126.62  |   PERCENT = 0.04
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - AUD/USD is last trading at fresh session lows 0.9527 plummeting from recent session highs at 0.9574, following latest RBA meeting minutes, where the Australian central bank has stated that “the inflation outlook as currently assessed might provide some scope for further easing.”

According to analyst at Windsor Brokers and contributor at YoutradeFX.com Slobodan Drvenica, the Aussie might be building a top formation for a further slide to come, “with a clear break below 0.95, required to confirm,” Drvenica said. The pair is last at 0.9518, down -0.58% for the week so far, and -9.6% in last 6 months.

Immediate support to the downside for AUD/USD lies at yesterday's fresh weekly lows 0.9508, followed by June 10 highs at 0.9481, while closest resistance to the upside shows at yesterday's Asian session lows 0.9551, followed by recent session highs at 0.9570.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9518  |  CLOSE = 0.952  |  HIGH = 0.9521  |   LOW = 0.9517
BID = 0.9519  |  ASK = 0.9521  |   PERCENT = -0.021
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Neutral  |   Strength = 0  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board held on June 5 points that the inflation outlook might give further scope to cut rates.

From the RBA: "Inflation outlook as currently assessed might provide some scope for further easing, should that be required to support demand."

On the Australian Dollar, the central bank said the currency remains "noticeably" lower, yet still high relative to export prices. The RBA stated that "it is possible that the Australian dollar will fall further with the drop in terms of trade."

On growth prospect, the RBA thinks "Australia growth will be a bit below trend in the near-term. Housing market improving, with business conditions somewhat subdued."

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Today's RBA minutes is likely to acknowledge an easing bias but keep the market in two minds about the likely timing, says RBS Strategist Greg Gibbs.

Gibbs adds: "We have no reason to think it should alter rate expectations. Currently the market is seeing a 27% change of a cut in July, and a 71% chance of a cut in August."

Gibbs points also at the latest IMM positioning - quite short the AUD - as a factor to be cautious, as it leaves the selling side vulnerable to a short squeeze.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - After trading as high as 81.06 early in the session, the DXY was unable to maintain a firm bid at higher prices and leaked lower later in the day to finish flat at 80.81.

FOMC meeting to heighten DXY volatility

Although the DXY has suffered steep declines of nearly 4.43% since the last week of May, Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst at Daily FX believes further downside may be limited as we head into the FOMC meeting. “The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is working on its second consecutive Inside Day today, and only its fourth positive day over the past fourteen, as investors have hit the brakes on recent volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting this Wednesday, added Vecchio.

In further summing up his thoughts Vecchio commented, “Overall, however, there’s a certain “calm before the storm” feeling afoot right now, and the JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index has plummeted by -9.80% from its yearly high set on Thursday, confirming the downswing in short-term fear. Nevertheless, FX volatility measures have been elevated near their highest level since June 2012.” In conclusion, Vecchio went on to say he believes the US Dollar will be forming a bottom soon after the Fed Rate Decision.

Current technical set up still not confirming a bottom

David Solin of FXA went on discuss a few technical developments on the DXY charts that may help influence direction as we progress through the week. “Broader US$ is consolidating from last week's low at 80.50 and with the market oversold after the tumble from the May 23rd high at 84.50, argues risk is rising for at least a few weeks of correcting higher (and potentially much more). Also, the slowing downside momentum over the last few weeks adds to this view of an approaching bottom,” Solin commented. In concluding his thoughts, Solin went on to say market participants may be better off being patient over the next few days, and establishing long positions near the 80.40 level would provide a better risk/reward set up.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The RBA Minutes will be published at 01:30 GMT, an event that may produce some short-term volatility in the AUD/USD, depending on the wording used on monetary policy.

The 20-day EMA remains key resistance

Despite the increase in participation from buyers in the last trading days, the 20-day EMA still presents a stiff resistance for the AUD/USD, with the last attempts through 0.9560 meeting with strong selling interest.

RBA minutes to provide clues?

One of the main reasons to blame for such a sustained period of weakness in the AUD/USD through May is the RBA economic policy, with the central bank having embarked on a new easing phase to adjust the economy to its new fundamental landscape.

Since the last meeting rates were unchanged, the market will be looking for tips on upcoming movements.

According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at YoutradeFX.com, "a dovish statement or the possibility of another rate cut in the near future, will put Australian dollar under pressure, particularly against strong yen."

On the other hand, "if somehow the Central Bank results to offer a more optimistic outlook and rate cuts are not tip toed for upcoming months, Aussie may surge strongly, particularly against weak dollar" Bednarik adds.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9564  |  CLOSE = 0.9567  |  HIGH = 0.9571  |   LOW = 0.9562
BID = 0.9564  |  ASK = 0.957  |   PERCENT = -0.0314
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The Fed ‘tapering’ is going to happen, says Nomura Strategist Bob Janjuah.

According to Janjuah: "Gap between central banks and fundamentals is at dangerous levels, with positioning, sentiment, speculation, margin and leverage at levels unseen since 2006/2007"

Janjuah thinks that the main Fed's concern now is not allowing, or be perceived to allow, "the creation of any kind of excessive leverage driven speculative bubbles which, if they collapse, go on to threaten the financial stability of the US" Janjuah said.

So for Janjuah, ‘tapering’ is going to happen: "It will be gentle, it will be well telegraphed, and the key will be to avoid a major shock to the real economy."

Janjuah expands that "the Fed is going to taper because it is getting very fearful that it is creating a number of significant and dangerous leverage driven speculative bubbles that could threaten the financial stability of the US."

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - After the failed attempt to rally above the 95.10/15 resistance, the USD/JPY still looks tentatively bearish, with a break of 93.81 key support still required to open up further downside, says Chris Capre, Founder at 2ndSkies.

In view of Capre, following the aggressive 4-week of selling, "the pair has formed back to back inside bars or an ii pattern, which was all formed within a large tailed pin bar at the 93.81 support". Capre adds that Monday's inverted pin bar, from an order flow perspective, "translates into a failed attempt to rally."

The pair, still trapped within a short term range between 96.00 and 93.81, needs to see the latter taken out in order to qualify for its next downside target at 92.45, Capre believes. On the contrary, a break above 96.00 suggests 97.00 might be challenged, Capre thinks.

Overall, Capre favors the downside, "looking to rejoin the downtrend on a breakdown of the inside bars, or a pullback towards resistance" the trader said.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Bernanke's post-FOMC press conference is the primary market mover for this week. According to John Normand, Head of FX at JP Morgan, no material change to the statement is expected.

However, Normand notes "Bernanke should explain how tapering differs from tightening (and even pausing, which comes between those two phases) and should deny that the Fed has been using taper talk to trigger a repricing of fixed income markets."

Since the market may have misread the Fed's intentions about the timing of tapering, Normand thinks "fixed income-sensitive currencies (commodity FX, EM, high-yielders) can rally into the event and just after" the Strategist said.

EUR/USD is last at 1.3362 retracing from session and weekly highs at 1.3382, off early London session weekly lows at 1.3318. The pair is in the positive for the week so far but still little change, awaiting for FED Bernanke on Wed.

Waiting for FOMC

According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at Fxstreet.com, “dominant trend is bullish and the upside remains favored, as long as price finds buyers on dips down to 1.3240.” She believes that “expectations over the FOMC meeting later this week, are keeping investors on their toes and rumors hitting the wires will be the main market movers these days,” Bednarik said.

Key technical levels

The analyst finds support levels at: 1.3350, 1.3310 and 1.3270, while resistance levels at: 1.3400, 1.3440 and 1.3480.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3362  |  CLOSE = 1.3363  |  HIGH = 1.3368  |   LOW = 1.336
BID = 1.3362  |  ASK = 1.3364  |   PERCENT = -0.0075
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The precious metals markets continued their sideways drift, with gold trading in a very narrow range and closing down 0.43% at 1390 while silver gave up 1.3% to finish at 21.82.

Oil continues to inch towards $100

After trading as high as 98.74 at one point in the day, oil was unable to sustain the bulk of its gains and finished up 0.07% at 97.82. The technical set up on the daily/weekly charts has continued to improve, and it will now be important for the bulls to hold onto the previous resistance trend line near 97.30 (will now act as support). First resistance sits at 98.74 (high of previous day), followed by 99.47 (the 200 dma on weekly chart).

Gold technical set up still neutral in the short term

Slobodan Drvencia, analyst at Windsor Brokers and contributor at YoutradeFX.com provided some of his technical analysis opinions on the gold chart, detailing a few levels to keep an eye on as we progress through the coming week. “Spot Gold trades in a directionless mode, with price moving within narrowing range that formed triangle. Neutral short-term studies keep the sideways mode, with violation of triangle support at 1378, seen as downside trigger for test of initial 1378/73 supports, while attempt through 1390, triangle resistance, would expose recent range tops at 1392/94, above which to open psychological 1400 barrier for retest and confirm bullish stance,” Drvencia concluded.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Despite no indication of strong signs of a rebound are present at this point, bear pressure is easing up on USD/CAD, according to Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TDS.

The formation of a descending wedge pattern over the course of the past week, is, in view of Osborne, "synonymous with weakening downward momentum." The abrupt bounce off 1.0150 level, while not enough positive signs of a sustained price
rotation higher, suggest that the strong selling pressure is unlikely to continue, Osborne adds.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The NZD/USD experienced a volatile day of price action, at one point trading as high as 0.8098 but then losing its bid and closing down 51 pips at 0.7988.

NZD Economic calendar remains light until later in week

The economic calendar out of NZD will remain light during the coming session, with no major reports due out. However, it should be noted NZD GDP (Q1) will be released on the June 19th at 22:45 GMT. Analysts are looking for an increase of 0.6%, which is down from the previous reading of 1.5%

NZD/USD technical picture showing small signs of improvement

The YoutradeFX.com Trend Index is now reading slightly bullish set up on the daily chart, while the ob/os index reads neutral. Price has closed above the 9dma for a third consecutive day which is a positive development in the short term. The next goal for the bull camp will be to build value and close above the 20dma which is 0.8019. It should be noted the RSI (14) is still failing to make much progress above the 45 level which indicates a lack of momentum buying is still hurting the bulls chances of major advances. Initial support sits at 0.7970 (the 9dma), while first resistance is at 0.8050 (previous support, now resistance on 1 hour chart).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.8001  |  CLOSE = 0.7992  |  HIGH = 0.8003  |   LOW = 0.799
BID = 0.7991  |  ASK = 0.7993  |   PERCENT = 0.1126
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

AUD/JPY is last at 90.52, near session highs, and about the same price it was almost 2 weeks ago back in June 07, when the cross hit rock bottom after a massive sell-off coming from June 04 97.40 highs, extending the decline started by Aprill 11 above 105.

7 trading days at around same level

The cross bounced from mentioned level to past Monday's weekly highs at 93.83, then fell again to fresh 5-month lows past Thursday at 88.90, increasing volatility on the way, to around 200 pips per day on average for last 14 trading days, close to 3-year highs in daily volatility.

This means that while in last 7 trading days price has been unchanged around the current 90.50 mark, the 7 days before that, price fell almost a -9%, which would mean there has been some consolidation in these last 7 days after previous 7 days sell-off.

Key technical levels

Immediate support to the downside for AUD/JPY lies at recent session lows 90.11, followed by June 11 lows at 89.99, and June 13 fresh 5-month lows at 88.89. To the upside, closest resistance shows at current levels as June 07 lows 90.50, followed by yesterday's weekly highs at 91.56, and Friday's highs at 91.90.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 90.5  |  CLOSE = 90.47  |  HIGH = 90.54  |   LOW = 90.39
BID = 90.44  |  ASK = 90.51  |   PERCENT = 0.04
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - A summary of views from Societe Generale's European clients suggests that the ECB is ready for negative interest rates. Sebastien Galy, senior FX strategist at the bank, notes that the impact would be clearly negative on the EUR: "Investors do react badly when asked to pay on their own deposits", adding that "European money markets have already adapted to a new world of ultra low rates and are hence far less at risk."

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - After trading as high as 0.9640 earlier in the day, the AUD/USD was unable to maintain its bid and finished down 30 pips at 0.9537.

RBA Minutes due out 1:30GMT

Analysts at NAB Global Markets were pointing towards the latest release of the RBA Minutes due out at bit later in the session as a possible catalyst to help influence price action in the coming days. “The RBA release the full minutes of their June Board meeting when they left rates unchanged and released a shortened statement, implying less of a need to re-adjust their views much on the outlook. The minutes are not often big market moving events and this one is likely to be little different.”

NAB later went on to discuss a few other details they would be looking for which could be important to to monitor during the release. “We’ll be interested to read how the RBA staff viewed the then about to be released Q1 GDP. Their medium term outlook for business investment outlook in the light of the Q1 Capex survey can’t have been too negative since the RBA was content to leave rates on hold. They had the bulk of the pre-GDP Q1 partials at that Board meeting, the big subsequent surprise being the moderate 0.6% gain in household consumption given strong 2.2% Q1 retail volumes growth,” NAB concluded.

AUD/USD struggling to find momentum buyers

The technical set up on the daily chart of AUD/USD has made some improvement over the last four trading days, but the bulls will need to continue to show additional follow through to help turn the short term trend in their favor. Price is now consolidating above the 9dma (0.9527) which is a constructive development, but it will need to build value above the 20dma (0.9608) to further improve the set up. The RSI (14) is still finding a difficult time maintaining much ground above the 50 level, which is a sign the bulls are having a tough time establishing any type of momentum follow through.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.955  |  CLOSE = 0.9552  |  HIGH = 0.9554  |   LOW = 0.9548
BID = 0.9549  |  ASK = 0.9554  |   PERCENT = -0.0209
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - The Greenback trade higher on Monday against is major competitors except the Euro, how joined the talks on QE tapering to advance to the highest level since June 13 at 1.3380.

The market was focused on Wednesday's Fed economic Outlook, however, as FXbrief's analyst Jamie Coleman said in a early report, "the market has no clue what the Fed’s gonna do, and even if they did, they won’t know what to buy or sell on the news. In this line, the dollar's rise was limited.

The GBP/USD was capped at 1.5750 and launched to 1.5680, now it's trading at 157.20. The USD/JPY recovered some ground to hold the 94.00 position and now it's closing the day at 94.45. The AUD/USD extended decline to test the 0.9500 area and the USD/CAD tested the 1.0200 level.

Main headlines in the American session:

US: NY Empire State index rose to 7.84 in June

Canadian home price index +3.6% in may

G8 leaders say economic prospects remain weak but downside risks have been reduced – RTRS

Fed to hint tapering is close

Wall Street posts gains but tapering is weighting

German economy to slow this summer, warns Bundesbank