Notizie

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - oh, who would ever wanted to fight the USD? Since the May 1st high of 1.3240, the EUR/USD fell around 440 pips in just two weeks to test the 1.2800 area in the Friday's session. The pair closed the day at 1.2833, 0.36% negative on the day.

In the short term, the perspective remains negative as the YoutradeFX.com trend index says the EUR/USD is slightly bearish in the 1-day chart. Indicators such as MACD, CCI and Momentum are pointing to the south while the Stochastic is Bullish.

"The strong bearish momentum seen in EUR/USD this week, has put the pair under risk of massive selloff as price is approaching a key support level, the neckline of a H&S figure around 1.2750," YoutradeFX.com Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik commented in a recent report. "Considering the fact that the year low is at 1.2744, and therefore stops below should be large, a break lower should be the kick start of another round of dollar demand against the Euro."

Among these lines, with the euro zone contracting for its sixth consecutive quarter and, of course, leaving the door open for another negative print in the Q2 GDP, it seems more and more plausible that those peaks in EUR/USD back in February will be remembered as the best moments of the cross in the present year.

“The continued depreciation of EUR/USD drove the DXY Index to reach an intraday high of near 84.10, almost matching the high reached in July 2012," Korber continued. "We recommend a risk-neutral short EUR basket trade for those who look to sidestep the periodic short-covering rallies in EUR/USD."

The YoutradeFX.com forecast poll showed a neutral bias for the EUR/USD in the week ahead as the next Friday's target is 1.2821 while the 1-month is 1.2898 and 1.867 as 3-month price.

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - Another day and another positive day for the Greenback as better than expected US data fueled sentiment and risk appetite with the dollar advancing against all its major competitors.

The EUR/USD declines to test the 1.2800 level, fresh lowest level since April 4th. The GBP/USD broke below the 1.5175 level to reach a fresh lowest since April 4th too at 1.5155. The USD/JPY advanced further and it climbed to the highest level since August 2008 at 103.30.

The AUD/USD continued with its downtrend as the pair collapsed further to 0.9710, lowest since June 2012.

Main headlines in the American session:

US Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index grows to 83.7 in May from 76.4 in Apr

US: The Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index up to 83.7 in May

US leading indicators +0.6% vs +0.2% expected

Troika releases upbeat report on Greece

Fitch downgrades Slovenia to 'BBB+'; Negative Outlook

Wall Street rallies on upbeat economic data

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - The USD/JPY extended its advanced in the late American session with the pair conquering the 103.00 level and beyond.

The Dollar jumped around 40 pips against the Yen in the Friday's latest hours from 102.90 to reach the highest level since August 2008 at 103.30. Currently the USD/JPY prices at 103.20, 0.92% positive on the day. The perspective remains slightly bullish according to the YoutradeFX.com trend index in the 1-hour chart. Indicators such as MACD, CCI and Momentum are pointing to the north while the Stochastic is bearish.

Next resistance is at 103.50 (low Sep.30 2008) followed by 103.54 (low Sep.16 2008) and then 105.40 (high Oct.6 2008). On the downside, a breach of 102.68 (high May 16) would expose 102.08 (low May 17) and finally 101.83 (low May 16).

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - New highs to end the week in the US stocks market as investor's confidence was fueled by a better than expected economic data.

Impressive rally in Wall Street as stocks extended rally late in day after a good opening. This is the fourth straight week of stock gains with the Dow and S&P in record highs.

The Dow Jones advanced 121.18 points or 0.80% to end the day at 15,354.40. The DJIA is 1.56% up on the week. The S&P 500 added 15.65 points or 0.95% to 1,666.12, 1.98% positive on the week. The Nasdaq rallied 33.73 points or 0.97 to close at the highest level since the .com crash at 3,498.97. The Composite won 1.82% on the weekly basis.

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - After rising 600 pips in May from 97.00 in May 1st, the USD/JPY is now trading above the 103.00 level and according to the Rabobank analyst team, the perspective is positive in the long term.

"At present the increase in risk appetite in the financial system combined with the aggressive nature of BoJ policy is sufficient to suggest that USD/JPY will remain on an upward path for some months," points the Rabobank team. "We expect that the Fed will be paring back its asset purchases in Q1 next year."

"This action should support USD/JPY further during the 6 to 12 mth horizon," Rabobank states. "However, the more successful Abe’s policies prove to be in improving the business environment in Japan, the more traction will be offered to the JPY and the pace of USD/JPY gains will be tempered."

"We have revised up our 12 mth USD/JPY forecasts moderately to 105.00 and maintain our long standing forecast that on a 3-5 year view USD/JPY will be trading in the 115 region."

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - The high volume of Fed bond purchases as part of the QE program had put pressure on the dollar for a considerable time, according to Ulrich Leuchtmann, analyst at Commerzbank.

"Recent speculation about an imminent reduction of the QE3 volume have been making the rounds, supporting the US currency on the FX markets", says the analyst. "We consider this speculation to be inappropriate and therefore expect a weaker dollar over the coming months".

"As for the USD outlook, this means in our view that the motives for the recent USD recovery are based on false expectations and we therefore expect to see EUR-USD, AUD-USD etc recovering soon", he adds.

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - The GBP/JPY is trading again above the 156.50 after being rejected by the 156.65 level and finding support at 156.10 in the American session.

Currently the pair is at 156.50, 0.23% positive on the day. The short term perspective is slightly bullish according to the YoutradeFX.com trend index in the 15-minute chart. Indicators such as MACD, CCI and Momentum are pointing to the north while the Stochastic is bearish.

Above the 156.50 level, next resistances are at 156.75 and 157.00. On the downside, 156.00, 155.65 and 155.40 are supports.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Bad week for the single currency, falling from Monday’s highs in the proximities of 1.3030 to today’s lows in sub 1.2800 levels, with the USD strength as the main catalyst.

Monday will bring a very light docket in both the euro area and the US, with Industrial Orders/Sales in Italy and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index followed by a speech by Fed’s Evans.

EUR/USD is now losing 0.36% at 1.2834 and a breach of 1.2796 (low May 17) would aim for 1.2754 (weekly cloud base) and finally 1.2740 (2013 low Apr.14).
On the flip side, resistance barriers align at 1.2850 (prior intraday lows) followed by 1.2890 (high May 17) and then 1.2930 (high May 16).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.2823  |  CLOSE = 1.283  |  HIGH = 1.2831  |   LOW = 1.2816
BID = 1.283  |  ASK = 1.283  |   PERCENT = -0.0546
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The USD dollar keeps pushing higher at the end of the trading week, lifting the cross to fresh highs above the handle at 103.00.

Despite the impressive upside in the cross, Currency Analyst Christopher Vecchio at DailyFX commented, “It is worth noting that retail traders remain aggressively long the Yen, with positioning thus suggesting that any strength seen in the Yen is worth fading”.

As of writing, USD/JPY is up 0.86% at 103.14 with the next resistance at 103.50 (low Sep.30 2008) followed by 103.54 (low Sep.16 2008) and then 105.40 (high Oct.6 2008).
On the downside, a breach of 102.68 (high May 16) would expose 102.08 (low May 17) and finally 101.83 (low May 16).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 103.18  |  CLOSE = 103.17  |  HIGH = 103.2  |   LOW = 103.12
BID = 103.12  |  ASK = 103.21  |   PERCENT = 0.01
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Positive results in the US economy are acting as extra support for the greenback, which is closing the week with strong gains above 84.00 the figure.

“The US dollar is finishing the week firmly for two reasons. The first is positive developments for the dollar, though we are skeptical of how quickly the Fed tapers off its purchases given the subdued price pressures and slow gains in non-farm payrolls… The second reason is a deterioration of the macro-fundamentals in Europe and the dollar bloc, along with no major objection to continued yen weakness”, remarked the BBH Global Currency Strategy Team.

At the moment, the index is up 0.75% at 84.34 and according to tradingcentral.com, the next barriers up line up at 84.50 and 84.70 while support levels align at 83.55 and 83.30.

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/JPY managed to erase intraday losses during the American session as the euro is resisting better than the yen before the USD stampede, with EUR/USD holding above 1.2800 and USD/JPY breaking 103.00.

EUR/JPY found support and bounced from the 10-day SMA around 131.25 at the beginning of the NY session, and rose over 100 pips to a fresh 2-day high at the 132.30 zone. At time of writing, EUR/JPY is trading around 132.20, recording a 0.4% gain on Friday.

In terms of technical levels, above 132.30, next resistances could be found at 132.45 (high May 15) and 132.76 (2013 high). On the other hand supports are seen at 131.25 (daily low/10-day SMA) and 131.10 (high Apr 10).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 132.2  |  CLOSE = 132.26  |  HIGH = 132.33  |   LOW = 132.2
BID = 132.24  |  ASK = 132.27  |   PERCENT = -0.04
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Better-than-expected data from the US CB Leading Indicator and the consumer sentiment gauged by the U. of Michigan index are bolstering today’s upside in the US equities, heading towards its fourth consecutive week of gains. The greenback, measured by the US Dollar Index, is testing intraday highs in the vicinity of 84.35/40 and closing the week with strong gains.
DowJones is up 0.34%, following by the S&P500 and the Nasdaq, advancing 0.46% and 0.45%, respectively.

Bourses in Euroland climbed to multi-year highs on Friday, propped up by the upbeat US data, allaying concerns about the US recovery. The CAC40 advanced 0.56%, seconded by the FTSE100, 0.53% and the IBEX35, 0.47%.
Another volatile session for the single currency, navigating around the area of 1.2830/35 after dipping to session lows in sub 1.2800 levels. The ongoing USD rally has been punishing the EUR throughout the week, dragging the cross from Monday’s tops around 1.3030.

In the commodities’ front, the selling pressure continues to hammer the ounce of gold, down 1.67% at $1,364 while the barrel of WTI is up 0.67% at $95.80.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The Mexican peso is losing ground against its neighbour on Friday, after the economic activity in the Aztec economy expanded less than forecasts in the first quarter: 0.5% QoQ and 0.8% YoY, vs. 0.8% and 3.2% respectively.

“If data continue to come in soft in Q2 and Q3, then a rate cut will become very likely in Q3 or Q4. However, with inflation of 4.7% y/y still well above the 2-4% target range, easing won't be imminent and we see no move at the June 7 meeting”, noted the BBH Global Currency Strategy Team.

The pair is now advancing 0.42% at 12.3356 and a surpass of 12.4786 (MA100d) would bring 12.6440 (weekly high Mar. 15)
On the other hand, support levels line up at 12.2448 (MA50d) ahead of 12.1598 (MA21d).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 12.337  |  CLOSE = 12.334  |  HIGH = 12.3372  |   LOW = 12.3307
BID = 12.3321  |  ASK = 12.3361  |   PERCENT = 0.0243
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - Fitch ratings downgraded Slovenia's sovereign debt rating from 'A-' to 'BBB+' according to a recent press release.

The Agency says that the country's outlook is 'negative. "The macroeconomic and fiscal outlook has deteriorated significantly since Fitch's last rating review of the Slovenian sovereign in August 2012. The agency now forecasts a 2% contraction in real GDP in 2013 and a decline of 0.3% in 2014," Fitch commented.

"Fitch now projects that a larger GGD than previously expected, a poor macroeconomic outlook, and costs deriving from bank recapitalization and the issuance of state guarantees for "bad bank" (BAMC) bonds will cause gross general government debt (GGGD) to rise to 72% of GDP in 2013-14, up from 22% in 2008."

Overall, Fitch forecasts that "the general government deficit (GGD, net of bank recapitalization costs) will rise to 5% of GDP in 2013 from 4% in 2012, against a target set down in the end-2012 budget law of 2.8%."

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - The Australian dollar continued to weaken during the American session and printed yet another 11-month of 0.9710 against the dollar, as the greenback received another boost following better-than-expected US confidence data.

However, the Aussie managed to stabilize above the 0.9710 level and entered in a consolidation phase that has extended over the last hours. At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9730/35 zone, where it is 0.7% below its opening price.

The Aussie has been among the worst performers in May, having lost over 650 pips from the monthly opening and fallen 11 out of its 13 trading days.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9738  |  CLOSE = 0.9743  |  HIGH = 0.9743  |   LOW = 0.9735
BID = 0.974  |  ASK = 0.9746  |   PERCENT = -0.0513
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The increasing selling interest around the euro is challenging the key support at 1.2800 on Friday, always within the prevailing USD strength as backdrop.

According to Camilla Sutton, Strategist at Scotiabank, the bank’s outlook on the cross remains bearish. “All signals are in sell territory, the 50‐day has crossed below the 200‐day and the RSI is at just 38, leaving lots of downside before being oversold. We expect a near‐term test down through 1.28”, concluded Sutton.

EUR/USD is now losing 0.47% at 1.2822 and a breach of 1.2796 (low May 17) would aim for 1.2754 (weekly cloud base) and finally 1.2740 (2013 low Apr.14).
On the flip side, resistance barriers align at 1.2850 (prior intraday lows) followed by 1.2890 (high May 17) and then 1.2930 (high May 16).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.2818  |  CLOSE = 1.2818  |  HIGH = 1.2825  |   LOW = 1.2815
BID = 1.2816  |  ASK = 1.2819  |   PERCENT = 0
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - Following a steep rally, the US dollar lost momentum and gave up ground against the loonie as investors take profit ahead of the weekend.

USD/CAD turned lower after peaking at 1.0312, its strongest in 2 months, dipping back below 1.0300 in recent dealings. At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading around 1.0275, where it is still up 0.8% on the day.

In terms of technical levels, immediate supports could be fund at 1.0260 (10-hour SMA) and 1.0230 (21-hour SMA), while resistances are seen at 1.0312 (daily high) and 1.0330 (high Mar 7).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.0274  |  CLOSE = 1.0276  |  HIGH = 1.0278  |   LOW = 1.0271
BID = 1.0275  |  ASK = 1.0281  |   PERCENT = -0.0195
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The selling pressure in the risk-associated assets is intensifying on Friday, driving the pound to the area of 1.5170/75 and challenging previous lows around 1.5160.

The sterling would remain under pressure ahead of next week’s calendar in the UK, as many significant releases are due: consumer prices in April, public sector finances, BoE minutes, Q1 GDP and retail sales during April.

As of writing, the cross is losing 0.63% at 1.5174 with the next support at 1.5162 (low May 17) ahead of 1.5128 (61.85 of 1.4832-1.5607) and then 1.5034 (low Apr.4).
On the flip side, a breakout of 1.5282 (high May 17) would aim for 1.5323 (high May 16) and then 1.5331 (high May 14).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5176  |  CLOSE = 1.5174  |  HIGH = 1.5179  |   LOW = 1.517
BID = 1.5171  |  ASK = 1.5176  |   PERCENT = 0.0132
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's commodity-based currencies and outline the technical positions.

In terms of the AUD/USD, “The pair extended its weakness and is under selling pressure. There is no major support until 0.9582, though resistance is at 0.9919.” In addition, in looking at the USD/CAD, a neutral bias persists as there is resistance at 1.0219 ahead of 1.0294 – support is at 1.0149 ahead of 1.0082.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's majors and outline the technical positions.

Beginning with the USD/JPY, with the broader bull trend in place, the next major resistance focus is at 105.60. Support is at 101.26, though bullishness prevails. As for the GBP/USD, “Support is at 1.5174 and 1.5128; a closing break below the latter would be negative as it would confirm MACD settling below its zero line, extending weakness to 1.5034. Resistance is at 1.5339 ahead of 1.5390, suggesting a neutral near-term outlook.”

Finally, regarding the USD/CHF, as long as support at 0.9557 holds, there is scope for resumption of upside. Resistance is at 0.9748, a break above would open 0.9810 and then 0.9972.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - The pair has been leading the market and has gapped out on the charts this afternoon to break the 0.9700 level on a broad based dollar rally.

The Swissie wasn’t settling for just a 100-pip move on the day and business was being done through the 0.9745 resistances closing an hourly stick with a high of 0.9761. At time of writing, this pair has stepped down a peg on profit taking before the London close to a slight 15 pips above the figure and now trading at 0.9715 again.

The first suggested levels to be tested are the 78.6% correction at 0.9770. A close above the previous resistance levels and above the pivot on the downside brings the next target into play coming as 0.9835. However, the market may wish to collect some more profits in NY and open next week for another go below the figure. Support to the downside comes in with previous resistance zones with a 0.9645 pivot on the hourly chart.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9721  |  CLOSE = 0.9716  |  HIGH = 0.9724  |   LOW = 0.971
BID = 0.9714  |  ASK = 0.9716  |   PERCENT = 0.0515
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - In light of recent European rates and sectoral performance, “We downgrade food and beverages to an underweight (from neutral) and personal and household goods to a neutral.”

Moreover, “we remain overweight luxury goods as a sub sector, given more attractive valuations and more sensitivity to an improvement in global growth, especially in China. We initiate a recommendation to be long FTSE 100 versus the SMI on a currency hedged basis.” The team notes.

The Swiss market is expensive – on almost a peak premium versus the FTSE 100. And moreover we see the UK as more geared to an improvement in the global cycle and less vulnerable to a relative sell-off in consumer staples. The UK should also benefit from continued supportive monetary policy, which is already showing signs of helping boost the housing market.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The European Commission and the International Monetary Fund released a report on Friday, in which they assure that Greece's austerity efforts are bringing fruit and that the country's economy should start expanding again next year.

According to the document, Greek GDP is expected to rise by 0.6% in 2014. The deficit forecast for the country was lowered to 1.7% of GDP in 2015 and of 2.1% GDP in 2016.

Troika officials suggest that Greece has made substantial progress, carrying out the reforms required under the rescue program. They see that “public finances are steadily improving, the banking sector recapitalisation has reached an advanced stage”, but they remind that there are still actions which need to be taken.

“The fiscal outlook depends to a large extent on progress in strengthening the tax and social security revenue administrations,” they emphasize. The Troika is also concerned about the state of the Greek banking sector, and about the elevated unemployment rate, which is expected to reach a peak of 27% this year and then drop to 26.0% in 2014 and to 21.0% in 2016.

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - Following a phase of consolidation, dollar's bulls finally gathered enough momentum to send USD/JPY above the 103.00 mark on Friday, underpinned by better-than-expected US confidence data.

USD/JPY broke above the 102.75 level and rallied to a fresh high of 103.11, last seen Oct 7 2008. At time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 103.00, where it posts a 0.8% daily gain.

On the upside, next resistance levels could be found at 103.27 (high Oct 7 2008) and 103.50 (low Sep 30 2008). On the downside, supports might be faced at 102.05 (daily low) and 101.80 (low May 16).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 102.52  |  CLOSE = 102.5  |  HIGH = 102.55  |   LOW = 102.49
BID = 103.03  |  ASK = 103.05  |   PERCENT = 0.02
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Given the market is still struggling to digest the existing easing program, many investors have wondered how could the BoJ hope to ease further if inflation remains elusive.

Moreover, will the USD/JPY spot rally stall when the market realizes this? Fortunately for yen bears, other avenues to ease are still available as we have previously discussed, but even greater policymaker creativity may be called for.

According to Gareth Berry, a Research Analyst at UBS, “Ongoing JGB turbulence has kept yen FX volatility elevated in the long dated tenors. Implied volatilities seem to be pricing in the possibility - however remote - of an eventual JGB market panic. Were this to occur, the USD/JPY spot would quickly shake off its indifference and an acceleration of the bearish yen trend would likely ensue - at least initially.”

YoutradeFX.com (London) - The research team at Commerzbank note the recent break lower and say this is directional. "The market is now under pressure to sell off to 1.5035/28 4th April low and the 20th March low." – Analyst,
Karen Jones, Commerzbank

She goes on to say that the support at 1.4994 is regarded as the last defence for 1.4832, the March low. They mention that short-term rallies are expected to remain capped 1.5335/85 and key resistance is regarded as its 1.5601/50% retracement of the move seen this year, while capped here the market is viewed as having topped.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The US CB Leading Indicator increased 0.6% in April, compared with the 0.2% drop in March, the Conference Board revealed on Friday. Analysts expected a 0.2% rise.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Earlier today, European Central Bank Executive Board member Yves Mersch said an asset-quality review and a stress test for European banks should be carried out by mid-2014, likely ahead of the central bank takes up supervision duties.

The Single Supervisory Mechanism at the ECB “could undertake the asset-quality review in the third quarter of this year until the first quarter of next year,” Mersch noted in a speech in London today, adding that a stress test would be conducted in coordination with the European Banking Authority. “Such a comprehensive assessment is needed before the SSM becomes operational,” he added.

Indeed, European leaders decided in June last year to lend powers to oversee European banks to the Frankfurt-based ECB, as part of a so-called banking union with the aim of breaking the link between governments’ creditworthiness and commercial lenders. The ECB is scheduled to begin supervision by the middle of 2014.

The ECB supervision “should create a level playing field for the European banking industry and remove any national biases or supervisory forbearance, and prevent the hiding of bad assets – or even leniency – towards so-called ’national champions,’” Mersch said.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Preliminary data released by the Reuters/University of Michigan shows that the Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 83.7 in May, from 76.4 in April. Market consensus pointed to less growth to 78.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (London) - EUR/GBP has been a non-event throughout the European sessions this week, bar Mondays and Wednesdays moves of 100 pips. Today has been no exception, and technically there are or no indicators when it comes to watching paint dry.

But reminding ourselves, that we are not literally watching paint dry, the drivers outside of this pair have seen some action this afternoon and there is still time yet in NY ahead of profit taking before the weekend to perhaps see some activity outside of this…10…pip…range. Cable and EUR/USD has seen some aggressive drops in thinner market conditions and as a result EUR/GBP has been pretty side-lined to say the least, but looking ahead to next week there are plenty of data releases in a heavy European calendar to invite the market back into play with this pair, and perhaps it may take a lead of its own.

In the UK, CPI arrives on Tuesday, with BoE minutes the following morning, and GDP/ Retails Sales on Thursday. In Euroland, German PPI arrives early on Tuesday, PMI on Thursday and GDP and IFO for Friday. Supports are 0.8420 and 0.8395. Resistances are 0.8460 and 0.8495

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.8436  |  CLOSE = 0.844  |  HIGH = 0.8444  |   LOW = 0.8433
BID = 0.844  |  ASK = 0.8441  |   PERCENT = -0.0474
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 1  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Given the low European interest rates, weak economic activity and a high-risk premium have made yield, predictable growth and safety attractive to investors.

According to the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs, “We continue to believe that companies with high yields that have balance sheet strength and can grow dividends will perform well. The search for growth, however, may shift towards earnings prospects and away from the top line. The premium for top line and safety should moderate in our view.

The winning sectors in recent years have not necessarily been economically ‘defensive’; telecoms and utilities have been among the worst performers. The best performing sectors have offered economic defensive characteristics together with stable top-line growth – a combination of growth with safety. “The valuation of these stocks has reached levels that look, in our view, too steep given the moderating risks and improved forward global growth prospects. The significant outperformance of the SMI, despite a lower ERP over recent months, illustrates this point.” the team adds.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD rushed its fall at the beginning of the New York session, as investors appeal for the greenback put the pair back under pressure.

EUR/USD broke below the 1.2840 support zone and dropped as low as 1.2801 in recent dealings before finding support. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at the 1.2810 zone, where it records a 0.5% loss on the day.

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at YoutradeFX.com notes that EUR/USD has scope for a downward continuation, eyeing the 1.2744 level, this year low. Bednarik locates next supports at 1.2785 and 1.2744, while she places resistances at 1.2840 and 1.2890 ahead of 1.2930.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.2808  |  CLOSE = 1.2808  |  HIGH = 1.2811  |   LOW = 1.2807
BID = 1.2808  |  ASK = 1.2809  |   PERCENT = 0
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The US stock market opened higher Friday, despite the lack of any meaningful catalyst for the markets. Indeed, the USD has strengthened across the board, and stocks have rallied off of yesterdays lows at the opening.

Beginning with the indices and composites, the NASDAQ rose +0.56% as it settles in region of 3484.28, up +19.46 points in these moments. In addition, the S&P 500 is trading in negative territory, operating at 1657.52, ascending +7.05 points or +0.43% at the time of writing. Finally, the Dow Jones has edged higher at the opening, trading in the zone of 15235.98, presently +0.02% after a movement of +2.72 points.

Sectors are nearly all positive at the opening, however the Consumer Cyclical and Capital Goods sectors have distinguished themselves as the lone winners thus far, rising +0.65% and +0.58% respectively. In other news, the price of crude is testing USD $95.79/bbl Friday.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - The pair has been leading the market and has gapped out on the charts this afternoon to break the 0.9700 level. Challenging Thursday’s high of 0.9709, these levels have not been traded since then all the way back in August 2012, in what is now a dollar positive environment.

The break came on the release of a dovish CPI reading for Canada, in a thin market ahead of the weekend and where much of the less confidant bulls had been squeezed out on stops across the majors of the past 24hrs.

The Swissie will mostly likely resume the recent ranges, and it is worth noting that gaps in the charts do tend to get filled, but as the end of the week approaches, there is still more volatility to play out ahead and resistances in the pair are 0.9710 (daily) and 0.9745 (weekly) on the daily / weekly candles. Support is…well, in the dollar its-self but technically it comes now as 0.9685 and 0.9645 pivot point (and EMA50).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9699  |  CLOSE = 0.9714  |  HIGH = 0.9715  |   LOW = 0.9699
BID = 0.9713  |  ASK = 0.9718  |   PERCENT = -0.1544
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The AUD/USD took a tumble during US trading Friday, bottoming out in recent moments at 0.9722 (intraday low), before experiencing a minor recovery to the 0.9739/42 level at the time of writing.

According to the ICN.com technical analyst team, “The AUD/USD is steady below the minor resistance at 0.9770 and consolidating below this level makes us hold onto our bearish expectations for today. We depend as well on the breakout below 161.8% to extend bearishness and trading below this level at 0.9825 support the test of 0.9645 areas at least.”

At this juncture, the cross is facing a staunch decline of -0.67% off its opening Friday. In terms of the AUD/USD, “The pair extended its weakness and is under selling pressure. There is no major support until 0.9582, though resistance is at 0.9919, suggesting a bearish outlook.” warns Gareth Berry, a Research Analyst at UBS.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9733  |  CLOSE = 0.974  |  HIGH = 0.9745  |   LOW = 0.9728
BID = 0.974  |  ASK = 0.9741  |   PERCENT = -0.0719
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - According to data released today by Statistics Canada, Canadian annual inflation rose 0.4% in April, following 1% growth registered the previous month. This result is lower than analysts' forecasts of +0.6%. On a monthly basis Canadian CPI fell 0.2% in April, after rising 0.2% in March, against expectations of remaining unchanged.

CPI – Core remained unchanged in April, after growing 0.3% in March.

Year-over-year Bank of Canada CPI Core climbed 1.1% in April, down from 1.4% in March. On a monthly basis Bank of Canada CPI Core increased 0.1%, following a 0.2% rise.

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - The Dollar is currently rising across the board and against the Japanese Yen, the Greenback has jumped to trade at intra-day highs at 102.60.

The USD/JPY advanced around 40 pips in the latest couple of hours from 102.25 area to test again the 102.60 zone. Currently the pair is trading at 102.55, 0.28% positive on the day. Short term perspective remains slightly bullish according to the YoutradeFX.com trend index. Indicators such as MACD, CCI and Momentum are pointing to the north while the Stochastic is neutral in the 15 minutes chart.

Above the 102.60, next supports are at 102.75, multi-year highs, and the 103.00 psychological level. On the downside, 102.20 is the next support ahead of 102.00 and 101.85.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 102.56  |  CLOSE = 102.49  |  HIGH = 102.62  |   LOW = 102.49
BID = 102.49  |  ASK = 102.53  |   PERCENT = 0.07
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Cable is reacting to activity else where in the market, and at the release of a dovish set of inflationary numbers from Canada, the USD marched on markedly across the board with gaps in the charts. Gaps do tend to be filled which is worth noting, but for now, 1.5190 support is looking highly vulnerable.

The cable has a strong support line at 1.5200 and 1.5190 but otherwise a break below 1.5200 and what support there could be at 1.5190 or 1.5175 (weekly support) may lead to a break out and continuation of the bear trend targeting March and April support at 1.5110. To the upside, there are the daily ranges in sight still with the 1.5264 pivot as an obvious target for a close above that to signal a correction attempt for 1.5340.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5206  |  CLOSE = 1.52  |  HIGH = 1.5207  |   LOW = 1.5196
BID = 1.5198  |  ASK = 1.52  |   PERCENT = 0.0395
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - Following a couple of days of consolidation, the EUR/USD finally broke below the 1.2840/45 area, which had contained every bearish attempt this week, and stretched to fresh 6-week lows at the beginning of the American session.

EUR/USD triggered stops on the break and quickly fell to a low of 1.2818, last seen Apr 4. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.2825/30, where it posts a 0.4% daily loss.

Immediate supports are now seen at 1.2800 (psychological level) and 1.2746 (2013 low). On the upside, the 1.2890 zone should offer resistance on bounces, followed by 1.2930 (high May 16).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.2831  |  CLOSE = 1.283  |  HIGH = 1.2833  |   LOW = 1.2818
BID = 1.2828  |  ASK = 1.2829  |   PERCENT = 0.0078
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Neutral  |   Strength = 0  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/CAD cruised ahead to an intraday high of 1.3231 Friday, before easing slightly in the aftermath of the Canadian data release during US trading.

Indeed, the pair is now trading at the 1.3200 level, up a steadfast +0.52% thus far during US trading. Mataf.net technical analysts point to resistances for the EUR/CAD at 1.3196 onto 1.3240, after a previous jump above the 1.3159. Conversely, the pair is slated to face calculated support at 1.3078, then 1.3034, and ultimately 1.2997.

In Canada, the Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY and MoM) came in at +1.1% in April (against expectations of +1.2%) and +0.1% in April (vs. a projection of +0.2%). Additionally, the Consumer Price Index (YoY) yielded a climb of +0.4% in April, against estimates of +0.6%.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3197  |  CLOSE = 1.3198  |  HIGH = 1.322  |   LOW = 1.3196
BID = 1.3194  |  ASK = 1.3204  |   PERCENT = -0.0076
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 2  |  OBO Recommendation = Extremely

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Canadian Wholesale Sales expanded at a monthly pace of 0.3% during March, missing the median at 0.4% albeit bettering February’s 0.1% advance.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The USD/CAD surge has been unchecked, barreling through multiple resistances and establishing a fresh intraday high of 1.0303/08, or +1.02%.

Following an earlier surge above resistance at 1.0270 and 1.0295, Mataf.net analysts point to the next level of correction for the USD/CAD at 1.0310 and 1.0355. On the decline, supportive structures abound at 1.0154, ahead of 1.0123, and finally 1.0096.

In Canada, the Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY and MoM) came in at +1.1% in April (against expectations of +1.2%) and +0.1% in April (vs. a projection of +0.2%). Additionally, the Consumer Price Index (YoY) yielded a climb of +0.4% in April, against estimates of +0.6%.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.0285  |  CLOSE = 1.03  |  HIGH = 1.0308  |   LOW = 1.0285
BID = 1.0301  |  ASK = 1.0302  |   PERCENT = -0.1456
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The sterling is now eroding the previous attempt to the boundaries of 1.5260, easing to the region of 1.5230/35 as the USD strength keeps weighting on the cross.

In addition, and always framed within the broader dollar rally, “The $1.2845 area is providing support for the euro in recent days, likewise $1.5200 for sterling and 102.75 for the yen. If those levels hold into the European close, then we may see the dollar get hit with some profit taking in the North American afternoon ahead of the weekend”, suggested the BBH Global Currency Strategy Team.

The cross is now retreating 0.23% at 1.5231 with the next support at 1.5197 (low May 16) ahead of 1.5173 (low May 15) and finally 1.5128 (61.8% of 1.4832-1.5607).
On the upside, a surpass of 1.5282 (high May 17) would then target 1.5323 (high May 16) and then 1.5331 (high May 14).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5236  |  CLOSE = 1.5227  |  HIGH = 1.5236  |   LOW = 1.5226
BID = 1.5227  |  ASK = 1.5229  |   PERCENT = 0.0591
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Ahead of Canadian CPI, research teams at TD Securities not that the Loonie is pressuring daily resistance at 1.0260 and above the 40-day MA.

They think the next level to focus on is 1.0300/10 weekly break-out resistance, above which they feel the prospects for a sharper rally in USD/CAD will be enhanced significantly. Intraday, the team are looking for good support on dips to the 1.0200/20 area. Overall TD Securities remain USD bullish.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's EUR crosses and note that there is a generally neutral-trending bias ahead.

In particular, The EUR/USD maintains a bearish outlook intraday, as the pair is under pressure, trading close to Wednesday's low at 1.2843. A break below this would expose 1.2746 ahead of 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.2943 ahead of 1.3029. In terms of the EUR/CHF, with bullish trend in place, the focus is on resistance at 1.2525, a break above this would open 1.2569. Meanwhile support is at 1.2361, suggesting a bullish intraday view.

Moving to the EUR/GBP, with the MACD below its zero line, the focus is on support at 0.8389. A break below this would expose the important 0.8587. There is an important resistance area at 0.8517 and 0.8546. Finally, concerning the EUR/JPY, the first resistance is at 132.77, a break above this would open 134.38 ahead of the more critical 138.49. Despite a bullish outlook, support is at 129.92.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen told reporters on Friday that the German economy is robust but unless the country's government implemented necessary reforms, it probably wouldn't grow more in the second quarter of the year than in the first quarter. According to recent data German Q1 GDP rose by 0.1%, narrowly escaping a recession.

Furthermore, Asmussen warned that some countries in Europe are facing a “decade of adjustment” and assured that the ECB's monetary policy would remain expansive for as long as needed. He added however that maintaining low interest rates for a prolonged time could result in a mis-allocation of resources.

Finally, the ECB policymaker emphasized the importance a quick implementation of the EU banking union, which in his opinion should be completed by the summer of 2014. He also added that the situation in the Eurozone should improve gradually this year and that the euro is a stable currency.

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - The Australian dollar remains among the worst performers in the FX space. While most crosses consolidate in slim ranges, the AUD/USD dropped to hit yet another low on Friday.

AUD/USD broke below 0.9800 during the Asian session and extended its decline to a fresh 11-month trough of 0.9727 before finding support. At time of writing, the cross is trading around 0.9750, recording a 0.6% loss, having fallen 11 out of the last 13 trading days.

As for technical levels, immediate supports could be found at 0.9727 (daily low) and the 0.9710/00 area (low Jun 5 2012/psychological level). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 0.9830 (daily high) and 0.9880 (100-hour SMA).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9757  |  CLOSE = 0.975  |  HIGH = 0.976  |   LOW = 0.9748
BID = 0.975  |  ASK = 0.9751  |   PERCENT = 0.0718
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Well, nothing seems to stop the greenback on its way up, as demonstrated by the fifth session in positive figures out of the last seven, or climbing from near parity levels to today’s tops around 1.0250.

Data wise, Canadian consumer prices are due later, and Tim Davis, Strategist at TD Securities commented, “Today’s inflation report should look rather soft… The weakness in core prices is expected to reflect lower auto prices and clothing prices, as well as base year effects, while headline inflation will also face downside pressure from energy prices”.

USD/CAD is now up 0.54% at 1.0251 with the next hurdle at 1.0279 (high Apr.24) ahead of 1.0286 (high Apr.22) and then 1.0295 (high Apr.17).
On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.0181 (low May 17) would expose 1.0159 (MA30d) and finally 1.0149 (low May 16).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.0251  |  CLOSE = 1.0253  |  HIGH = 1.0255  |   LOW = 1.0247
BID = 1.0252  |  ASK = 1.0253  |   PERCENT = -0.0195
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - It is now six weeks since BoJ Governor Kuroda announced a new program of monetary easing, and still the JGB market remains unsettled.

According to Gareth Berry, a Research Analyst at UBS, “One benign interpretation of the turbulence is that liquidity has dried up and so JGB price action should be disregarded given the allegedly small volumes involved – however, that interpretation has just been laid to rest.”

The Japan Securities Dealers Association reported this week that JGB turnover in April hit an 11-month high. As an engineer might put it, this price action is signal not noise. Many FX participants observe these JGB gyrations with a sense of detached bewilderment - a reasonable stance given the USD/JPY spot has so far shown little interest in the JGB market and continues to march higher regardless. However, “we think a more active approach to JGB surveillance by FX investors is now warranted.” Berry adds.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - After the short-lived attempt to follow through 1.2890, sellers have now kicked down the euro back to the 1.2860.65 area.

In the view of Stephen Gallo, Strategist at BMO, “Ultra-short-term, FX is essentially caught between digesting a near-term weakening of the economy data, particularly on inflation, with a more hawkish slant to some recent Fed speak. That’s a tough trade from a directional perspective”.

EUR/USD is now losing 0.16% at 1.2861 and a breach of 1.2843 (low May 15) would aim for the psychological mark at 1.2800 en route to 1.2740 (2013 low Apr.14).
On the flip side, resistance barriers align at 1.2930 (high May 16) followed by 1.2943 (high May 15) and then 1.3030 (high May 14).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.2859  |  CLOSE = 1.2866  |  HIGH = 1.2866  |   LOW = 1.2857
BID = 1.2864  |  ASK = 1.2865  |   PERCENT = -0.0544
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (London) - The research team at Commerzbank have noted USD/CHF no change, and that the market is faltering just ahead of its next resistance at 0.9769/72.

They say this is the location of the 78.6% retracement and the June 2012 high. They also have regarded this as the last defence for the 0.9950/1.000 long term resistance and that this is the location of the 2012 high, the 61.8% retracement of the move down from 2010 and psychological resistance. They expect that dips lower are likely to find that good support on pullbacks to the 0.9540/0.9490 and the previous resistance line now acts as support at 0.9467.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Nomura strategists note that this week was dominated by USD, which rallied stronger across both G10 and EM, while equities were mostly lower, other than in the US.

The begin by commenting that they revised their USD forecast several weeks ago to incorporate further long term USD strength. However, they add that they also indicated the EUR/USD could pop higher in the very short term, driven by better news of fiscal consolidation (less front loaded). They continue to note that last week, however, saw USD move higher, led by USD/JPY breaking 100 for the first time since 2009 on stronger US data and expectations of aggressive Japanese investment in foreign securities. Further, USD also gained broadly against EUR, AUD, GBP and CHF, as well as against EM. They write, “In relation to Europe, EUR/CHF and European stocks have been beneficiaries, while EUR/USD has fallen, driven by the broad based USD strength. Hence, we have decided to exit our upside EUR/USD tactical one-touch position.”

They continue, asking, “What about USD broadly?” They feel that the tensions between long- and short-run considerations on the USD outlook create a trading dilemma. The long-run story is clearly bullish, in their view, but the short-run story is much more mixed because of the potential for still-soft US data in the next few months. However, the note that there is a danger in being too short term focused. They write, “The turn in JPY has been quick and has demonstrated the importance of momentum when a multi-year cycle turns. Something similar could happen to the broader-based USD REER, which is still trading near the lows. As such, we have entered strategic long-term USD bullish exposure via options against EUR and CAD. We would look to add spot exposure should we reach better entry points over the coming weeks.”

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The European stock notched modest gains Friday, as market tranquility seems to have prevailed in the absence of any major drivers. Earlier today in the EMU, Construction Output s.a. (MoM) came in at -1.7% in March, compared to -0.3% previously. Moreover, Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) declined -7.9% in March, relative to +1.7% in the previous month.

Beginning with the indices and composites, the EURO STOXX 50 grew +0.18% as it settles in region of 2804.53, up +5.19 points in these moments. In addition, the FTSE 100 is trading in positive territory, operating at 6712.36, ascending +24.83 points or +0.37% at the time of writing. Finally, the DAX has strengthened recently, trading in the zone of 8377.94 presently +0.17% after a movement of +8.07 points.

Moving to commodities the prices of gold and silver are trading at USD $1379.09 and $22.52 per oz. respectively. In addition, the price of crude is operating at USD $95.53/bbl Friday.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Other markets are largely leading Cable for the time being. The pair is oscillating in a tight range in European markets since the stop loss activity above 1.5272 and then 1.5310.

This will have reduced the market somewhat, squeezing out the less bearish of the bears, especially before the weekend. This can be evident with a lack of momentum being indicated in consolidation just off from the support line 1.5220 and halting way before the handle, 1.5000.

Stochastic on the hourly chart offers a positive bias here, but otherwise a break below 1.5200 and what support there could be at 1.5190 or 1.5175 (weekly support) may lead to a break out and continuation of the bear trend targeting March and April support at 1.5110. To the upside, albeit in an overall bear trend, there are the daily ranges in sight still with the 1.5264 pivot as an obvious target for a close above that to signal a correction attempt for 1.5340.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5248  |  CLOSE = 1.5243  |  HIGH = 1.525  |   LOW = 1.5238
BID = 1.5242  |  ASK = 1.5244  |   PERCENT = 0.0328
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The USD rally is taking a breather, giving some oxygen to the riskier assets and allowing the shared currency to print intraday highs around 1.2890 during the European afternoon.

“We remain sceptical of the ability of the USD to sustain a significant and broad based rally. In the face of this year’s fiscal tightening Fed Chairman Bernanke remains reluctant to move away from his dovish position, indicating that he is in no rush to remove monetary tightening”, assessed Jane Foley, Strategist at Rabobank.

EUR/USD is now flat at 1.2881 and a breach of 1.2843 (low May 15) would aim for the psychological mark at 1.2800 en route to 1.2740 (2013 low Apr.14).
On the flip side, resistance barriers align at 1.2930 (high May 16) followed by 1.2943 (high May 15) and then 1.3030 (high May 14).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.2887  |  CLOSE = 1.2883  |  HIGH = 1.2888  |   LOW = 1.288
BID = 1.2883  |  ASK = 1.2884  |   PERCENT = 0.031
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Societe Generale strategist Vincent Chaigneau notes that USD is on a roll, and he believes that it is only the beginning.

Following a small correction in late April, he notes that the dollar is rallying with a vengeance and a pause may be due, but recent moves confirm the shape of things to come, namely dollar gains will be far bigger in H2, as the Fed exit debate heats up. Overall, he notes that the dollar in late April saw its biggest year-to-date correction. He writes, “Indeed, the US dollar has staged a sharp rebound this month, beating all G10 and major EM currencies. (Further), The trade-weighted dollar has surged.”

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The recently shining USD/JPY found itself in a quagmire Friday, having been stonewalled at the 102.65 level (session high) during European trading to settle at 102.31/32 presently.

Following a topple of over 30 pips, the cross is now only up +0.03% Friday. Despite the recent setbacks however, “The USD/JPY remains bullish with the broader bull trend in place, leaving the next major resistance focus is at 105.60. Meanwhile, support lies below at 101.26 should a greater pullback occur.” Suggests Gareth Berry, a Research Analyst at UBS.

According to the ICN.com analyst team, “The USD/JPY is trading in a sideways range that tends to the upside, which is normal in light of stability above Linear Regression Indicators and being in an ascending channel. Moreover, prolonged stability above 102.15 forces us to expect an extension to the bullish move.”

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 102.31  |  CLOSE = 102.3  |  HIGH = 102.34  |   LOW = 102.29
BID = 102.29  |  ASK = 102.33  |   PERCENT = 0.01
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Sterling seems to be struggling this morning despite the GBP/USD closing higher yesterday evening – the dollar still appears to want to grind higher against the rest of its G10 rivals but encouragingly GBP/USD has found a bit of a range around 1.52/1.53.

We did see some volatility yesterday with the market reacting to US Federal Reserve speakers. In particular usually dovish San Francisco member Williams’ made some decidedly undovelike comments calling for a slowdown in QE purchases starting from this the summer and a complete halt by the end of the year, this followed other hawkish statements from Fed’s Fisher, Plosser and Lacker earlier in the day. According to Lee McDarby, Corporate Treasury at Investec, “The GBP/EUR would appear very comfortable in its 1.18 home for the time being.”

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The sterling has been following its European counterpart these last sessions, remaining subdued amidst the ongoing USD rally which saw the cross falling from highs around the 1.5600 handle in early May to the area of 1.5170/75 last Tuesday.

In the view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, “the market has traded through but not closed below the end of April low at 1.5198, and is consolidating here. The recent break lower is directional and the market is now under pressure to sell off to 1.5035/28 4th April low and the 20th March low”.

In addition, G.Yu and G.Berry, Strategists at the Swiss lender UBS, commented, “Support is at 1.5174 and 1.5128; a closing break below the latter would be negative as it would confirm MACD settling below its zero line, extending weakness to 1.5034. Resistance is at 1.5339 ahead of 1.5390”. Recall that the bank hold a neutral bias on the cross.

Next week’s UK docket includes April Consumer Prices, Public Sector finances, BoE Minutes, Q1 GDP figures and Retail Sales.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - With whispers of negative rates from dovish Central Banks, Bank of America / Merrill Lynch are not so convinced for the time being and offer a less risky framework as a suggestion.

The Global Research team suggests a framework for the European Central Bank (ECB) to carry out outright loan purchases and expand its balance sheet, which in our view would be more efficient and less risky than negative rates. And for The Bank of England, with slightly brighter economic outlook suggests to their research team that monetary policy will remain on hold at least until Mark Carney arrives in July.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Gold prices have weakened during European trading Friday, erasing an otherwise positive early performance and falling off highs at 1388. As such, the movement lower took the yellow metal to the depths of 1373 before a mild recovery back to USD $1378.48 per oz. at the time of writing. The outlook remains strictly bearish for the commodity, as precious metals have performed staunchly lower intraweek.

Silver trading off highs
The price of silver rebounded after testing the region near the 22.00 threshold, however the price is now pushing towards the neckline for a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern that is clear on the hourly time interval. The neckline resides at 22.80 level, and thus a break and stability above the level could extend the bullish bounce initially towards 23.25 broken support level. At the time of writing, silver spot prices finds themselves under siege at USD $22.51 per oz. Friday, following a movement below its highs of 22.71.

WTI bounces to 200-day SMA
After recording a giant hammer candlestick at its 200-day SMA, WTI crude oil bounced higher currently retesting the broken ascending support. However, the price could be completing a retest of the broken trend line ahead of moving back lower, where holding below 95.50 is necessary for a bearish scenario to remain valid. In these moments, crude is negotiating a price of USD $95.00/bbl.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The shared currency kept the range after the Construction Output in the euro area contracted 1.7% on a monthly basis during March, prolonging the negative momentum in the cross after February’s drop of 0.3%.

Against the backdrop of mounting rumours about the next steps of the Fed, Strategist Derek Halpenny at BTMU commented, “Next week we have Bernanke testifying to the Joint Economic Committee (Wednesday) and this is now is a very important event for shaping market expectations”.

As of writing, the pair is losing 0.10% at 1.2869 with the next support at 1.2843 (low May 15) ahead of the psychological mark at 1.2800 and finally 1.2740 (2013 low Apr.14).
On the flip side, a breakout of 1.2930 (high May 16) would open the door to 1.2943 (high May 15) and then 1.3030 (high May 14).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.2872  |  CLOSE = 1.287  |  HIGH = 1.2874  |   LOW = 1.2867
BID = 1.287  |  ASK = 1.2871  |   PERCENT = 0.0155
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/GBP has coasted higher in recent minutes, inking fresh maximums at the time of writing during European trading, presently trading in the heights of 0.8449/56.

The pair has flexed its muscles Friday, operating positively at a rate of +0.14% – the pair will face calculated resistance at 0.8458, then 0.8483, and finally 0.8502. On the pullback, a movement below 0.8414 will initiate supportive structures at 0.8395 ahead of 0.8397, notes the Mataf.net analyst team.

In the EMU, Construction Output s.a. (MoM) came in at -1.7% in March, compared to -0.3% previously. Moreover, Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) declined -7.9% in March, relative to +1.7% in the previous month.

According to the ICN.com Technical Analyst Team, “The EUR/GBP continued to move lower yesterday, pushing towards 0.8600 key support level again. The bearish bias will continue to be favored so long as the descending resistance -shown on the daily chart above -and 0.8500 key resistance are halting upside attempts.”

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.8447  |  CLOSE = 0.8451  |  HIGH = 0.8452  |   LOW = 0.8445
BID = 0.8451  |  ASK = 0.8451  |   PERCENT = -0.0473
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (London) - The Pair have exceeded its previous high this week on a bull run since the decline on Wednesday with the dollar leading the herd.

The Loonie lost some ground yesterday in the face of poorer US data but has since recovered to resistance 1.0250 and the EUR is whimpering below 1.2880. All that is relevant in light of this pair exceeding resistance and the daily trend line to the top side in the face of a bullish dollar index, especially in a dovish BoC outlook and commodities that are currently taking a hit. There are weekly resistance levels at 1.3245 and support at 1.3140, where the pair broke up from 1.3120 and away from the figure.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3196  |  CLOSE = 1.3189  |  HIGH = 1.3203  |   LOW = 1.3189
BID = 1.319  |  ASK = 1.3191  |   PERCENT = 0.0531
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 2  |  OBO Recommendation = Extremely

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The USD/CHF has traded unevenly Friday during European trading, in what has been a relatively muted session – indeed, following some soft economic data in the EMU, the cross is now trading at 0.9661/63.

Technically speaking, the pair is trading positively, up +0.14% at the time of writing. Mataf.net analysts point to resistive means for the USD/CHF at 0.9722, ahead of 0.9788, and ultimately 0.9827. Conversely, a break below the 0.9617 handle will initiate support at 0.9578 and 0.9512.

In the EMU, Construction Output s.a. (MoM) came in at -1.7% in March, compared to -0.3% previously. Moreover, Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) declined -7.9% in March, relative to +1.7% in the previous month.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9656  |  CLOSE = 0.9659  |  HIGH = 0.9665  |   LOW = 0.9654
BID = 0.9658  |  ASK = 0.9663  |   PERCENT = -0.0311
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/JPY catapulted off of its overnight lows at 131.48, spanning over 50 pips during European trading to test the key 132.00 upside barrier in these moments.

Following a movement of +0.18% above it’s opening, the EUR/JPY will encounter the following short-term resistances at 132.17, then 132.64, and finally 133.09. Conversely, the pair is projected to face support at 131.25, then 130.80, and eventually 130.33.

According to the ICN.com Analyst Team, “The EUR/JPY continues to fluctuate within a relatively tight range for the past few days, around 132.00 level, while RSI continues to lose the bullish momentum. The pair has also broken the short term ascending support while moving sideways. We would like to see RSI move higher again while price breaks and hold above 132.00 and preferably 132.50 to confirm further upside.”

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 131.97  |  CLOSE = 132  |  HIGH = 132.05  |   LOW = 131.91
BID = 132  |  ASK = 132.01  |   PERCENT = -0.02
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - After an ephemeral attempt to the area of 1.2880/85, the shared currency returned to the comfort zone around 1.2860/65 on Friday, ahead of EMU’s Construction Output.

After yesterday’s comments by San Francisco’s Fed J.Williams regarding the chance that the Fed could exit from the current QE programme sooner than previously though, Senior Analyst Flemming Nielsen at Danske Bank commented, “If his comments are mirrored by more members in the Fed Minutes that will be published next week, it will most likely boost the dollar further”.

As of writing, the pair is losing 0.13% at 1.2864 with the next support at 1.2843 (low May 15) ahead of the psychological mark at 1.2800 and finally 1.2740 (2013 low Apr.14).
On the flip side, a breakout of 1.2930 (high May 16) would open the door to 1.2943 (high May 15) and then 1.3030 (high May 14).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.2864  |  CLOSE = 1.2865  |  HIGH = 1.2867  |   LOW = 1.286
BID = 1.2865  |  ASK = 1.2866  |   PERCENT = -0.0078
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Research teams at TD Securities noted that January data came in strong on the heels of the sound US data at the beginning of the year.

However, they highlighted in the remainder of the quarter, weakness has filtered through in both the industry and services. Disappointing March IP last week sealed the negative outlook for Q1 GDP growth, so they now expect a lower growth rate of 1.4% Y/Y (cons 1.1%), down from 3.2% in Q4, with upside risks stemming from financial services and downsides potentially from agriculture.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - The technical analysis team at Commerzbank had an initial target of 0.9871/62 for the pair. This is the location of the 200 week ma and the 2011-2013 uptrend, and they are now looking for further losses. They said that rallies will find initial resistance at 0.9934/1.0020 and are expected to find that the previous range lows at 1.0100/16 to offer good interim resistance.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The Japanese yen has resumed its downside against the greenback on Friday, meandering around the mid 102.00s and heading towards Thursday’s tops around 102.65/70.

In the data sphere, the relevant Machinery Orders in the Japanese economy expanded at an annual pace of 2.4% in March, leaving behind February’s 11.3% pronounced drop. According to G.Yu and G.Berry, Strategists at UBS, the outlook on the cross remains bullish, adding, “With the broader bull trend in place, the next major resistance focus is at 105.60. Support is at 101.26”.

At the moment, the cross is up 0.24% en 102.52 with the next resistance at 102.68 (high May 16) ahead of 102.77 (2013 high May 15) and finally 103.00 (psychological level).
On the flip side, a breakdown of 102.08 (low May 17) would expose 101.83 (low May 16) and then 101.56 (38.2% of 96.99-102.77).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 102.48  |  CLOSE = 102.56  |  HIGH = 102.58  |   LOW = 102.46
BID = 102.55  |  ASK = 102.57  |   PERCENT = -0.08
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Asian equities built on yesterdays mostly strong performance, notching steadfast gains Friday and leading to a positive day overall across the board.

Beginning with the indices and composites, the Shanghai rose +1.38% as it settles in region of 2282.87, up +31.06 points in these moments. In addition, the Nikkei 225 is trading in positive territory, operating at 15138.12, climbing +100.88 points or +0.67% at the time of writing. Finally, the Hang Seng Index has edged higher today, trading in the zone of 23082.38, presently +0.17% after a movement of +38.44 points.

Moving to commodities the prices of gold and silver are trading at USD $1375.84 and $22.49 per oz. respectively. Moreover, the price of crude is operating at USD $95.06/bbl Friday.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - The Aussie dollar has been a poor performer this week (month), and has lost major ground to the JPY on Yen liquidation in a highly long USD market.

The AUD/JPY has been tested again through parity and now struggles below a resistance line forming in the European session at the 100.00 handle. A close below this psychological line may confirm the prospect for a descending wedge formation on the daily chart. This support line was first tested in April after a decline in the longer-term bull trend line’s high of 105.46.

However, action in the pair’s counterparts may limit further declines if the Yen can cover some old ground against the dollar and manage a close above 103.00. On the other hand, the Aussie also comes into play and the bears might falter much below the 200-week ma in the location of the long term support line on this aggressive move down from the resistance 105.80 to the old 0.9740 levels. A confirmation of rallies capped back to previous range lows in the Aussie at 1.0020 could help reaffirm a reversal in AUD/JPY to the downside. Previous resistance levels would play as support levels on the way down.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 99.84  |  CLOSE = 99.8  |  HIGH = 99.87  |   LOW = 99.77
BID = 99.79  |  ASK = 99.81  |   PERCENT = 0.05
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The GBP/USD took a tumble overnight, bottoming out earlier at 1.5229 (intraday low) during European trading – with a lack of drivers facing the pair, the cross continues to trade negatively.

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The GBP/USD achieved two of the suggested targets of the bullish correction, and when the pair moved back to the downside it remained limited above 1.5220. Prolonged stability above 1.5220 represented in 50% correction gives the possibility of moving to the upside again.”

At the time of writing, the cross has recovered the mark 1.5238/41, still down -0.18% off its opening - the Mataf.net analyst team postulates the next means of support at 1.5207, followed by 1.5139, and ultimately 1.5082. Should the pair recover its losses, a movement above 1.5332 will initiate short-term supports for the GBP/USD at 1.5389, and 1.5457.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5314  |  CLOSE = 1.5314  |  HIGH = 1.5321  |   LOW = 1.5312
BID = 1.5239  |  ASK = 1.5243  |   PERCENT = 0
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - DBS Group analysts note that yesterday’s strong rally in the US dollar hit a brick wall after US inflationand jobs data came in well below expectations.

They note that CPI inflation retreated to 1.1% YoY in April from 1.5% in the previous month, further away from the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Elsewhere, Initial jobless claims bounced above 350K to 360K for the latest week ending May 11, and they ask, “How does this change the outlook for QE3?”

According to San Francisco Fed President John Williams,the US economy has held up better-than-expected despite the fiscal consolidation. They write, “While there is more confidence in the jobs market, its present recovery is only sufficient to consider tapering asset purchases, but not strong enough to end QE3.” Based on his assumption for growth to accelerate to 3.25% in 2014 from 2.5% this year, they note that Williams reckoned that the recent decline in inflation is temporary.

Further, while open to reducing asset purchases as early as summer, Williams was careful to add that this depended on his assumptions for recovery. In the end, they feel that the tone on asset purchases will probably be set by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke next week, when he testifies before the Joint Economic Committee on May 22. They write, “Expect many questions from US lawmakers on the Fed’s intentions on asset purchases. Until then, exchange rates are likely to consolidate after a week of strong USD gains.”

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The USD/CAD recently cruised to daily highs at 1.0247 during European trading Friday, having built on yesterdays bullish path higher that continued seemingly unabated overnight.

Later today at 12:30 GMT, investors get the only real action of the day with a tranche of economic data in Canada. These indicators include a variety of CPI indices, all of which are projected to rise in the month of April.

In these moments however, the pair has eased slightly, capped by resistance that culminated in a move towards 1.0234/38. Following an earlier surge above resistance at 1.0212, Mataf.net analysts point to the next level of correction for the USD/CAD at 1.0239 and 1.0270. On the decline, supportive structures abound at 1.0154, ahead of 1.0123, and finally 1.0096.

According to the ICN.com technical analyst team, “The USD/CAD continued it’s upside rally and breached 1.0215 levels. Breaching 1.0215 levels increases positivity and might extend the bullish move today, as Linear Regression Indicators supports these expectations. Momentum indicators are showing intraday overbought signals, which make it necessary to stabilize above 1.0185 levels in order not to trigger the negative signals.”

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.0234  |  CLOSE = 1.0233  |  HIGH = 1.0237  |   LOW = 1.0229
BID = 1.0232  |  ASK = 1.0234  |   PERCENT = 0.0098
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

Tomos Rhys Edwards, Bank of America / Merrill Lynch Global Research comments on the global macro backdrop and said that it remains unambiguously one of "High Liquidity" and "Low Growth" (but crucially not "no growth"). His team is likely to remain bullish equities, bearish bonds and cash, and neutral commodities until a recession begins or, more likely, in their view, stronger growth and anticipation of lower liquidity induce fears of a bond crash and a bout of contagion to risk assets.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that finally, there is a little piece of good news for Europe.

He sees that the new car registration data showing the first increase in registrations in Europe in nineteen months, and registrations jumped 1.8% in April on an annual basis fueled by demand in the UK and Germany. Year-to-date sales are still 7% lower from a year earlier but at least we now have some evidence of improvement. He writes, “We continue to expect the euro to hold in and remain within distance of the 1.3000 level. Strong portfolio inflows and a substantially healthier current account position means good underlying euro demand.”

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank notes that after a choppy session, the major currencies ended mixed against the dollar on Thu with the cyclicals (NZD, AUD, CAD) notably weaker on the day across G10 space.

He begins by commenting that late in the NY, dollar bulls were however encouraged after the remarks from the Fed’s Williams indicating that the Fed may consider paring its asset purchase program late this year if the labor market continues to strengthen. However, he continues to note that the remarks were not a watershed for the dollar given the softer than expected US data flow (Philly Fed, CPI and initial claims last night) this week. He writes, “On this front, our MSIs (Macro Surprise Indices) for the US economy have also been soft of late.”

Looking ahead, Ng feels that the conditionality attached to the quantitative triggers for a Fed exit remain in place, indicating that dollar fortunes are expected to remain a function of data as much as Fed speak, with the former not giving an explicit green light as yet. However, he feels that Fed communication may well be gradually morphing into a less dovish animal, with Williams joining Fisher, Lacker and Plosser this week in painting a more optimistic picture and addressing a tapering of the asset purchase program. Meanwhile, Ng finishes by noting that given the current asynchrony of expected monetary policy responses by different global central banks, any further hints from the Fed on this front may see the commodity/growth linked currencies bear the brunt of dollar bullishness.”

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The NZD/USD plunged overnight towards the 0.8100 barrier, twice breaching this key figure (0.8089 session low), before stabilizing in this region during European trading today.

With the pair entrenched in negative territory, the cross is now facing a decline of -0.66% as it tests the 0.8100 barrier. Consistent with the calculations of the Mataf.net analyst team, the NZD/USD is presently trading at support level at 0.8108, ahead of 0.8061, and finally 0.7982. Alternatively, a paring of recent losses will drive the cross towards resistances at 0.8234, then 0.8313, onto 0.8360.

According to the ICN.com technical analyst team, “The NZD/USD has dropped to around 0.8155, where it is likely that the downtrend will extend initially to 0.8105. Linear Regression Indicators are negative, supporting the extension of that trend.”

Overnight, the market was fairly subdued, with New Zealand reporting its Producer Price Index – Output (QoQ) in Q1 at +0.8%, exceeding a consensus of 0.0%. In addition, the Producer Price Index – Input (QoQ) yielded a figure of +0.8%, against estimates of +0.2%.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.8095  |  CLOSE = 0.8101  |  HIGH = 0.8104  |   LOW = 0.8093
BID = 0.8099  |  ASK = 0.8102  |   PERCENT = -0.0741
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Sebastien Galy, Senior FX Strategist at Societe Generale recommends that investors consider going long AUD/NZD.

He begins by noting that he expects the AUD will catch its breath now that last weeks RBA cut is digested, and he sees virtually no chance of another cut as early as June. On the data front, he notes that Australian exports are recovering despite the China slowdown. On the other hand, he adds that the RBNZ is willing to prevent NZD appreciation via intervention, while the long positioning is crowded. He finishes by writing, “Finally, the AUD/NZD has a low correlation to broader market risk factors.”

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Research teams at TD Securities commented on their opinions for Canadian dollar related news and said that today’s inflation report should look rather soft.

They explained that this is expected with headline CPI falling from 1.0% to 0.5% Y/Y (mkt 0.6%) and core CPI sliding from 1.4% to 0.9% Y/Y (mkt 1.2%), reaching a new cyclical low for the latter. The weakness in core prices is expected by them to reflect lower auto prices and clothing prices, as well as base year effects, while headline inflation will also face downside pressure from energy prices, but will be supported by the shift from HST to PST in British Columbia.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The shared currency has given away most of Thursday’s gains and is back trading around the mid 1.28s after peaking in the boundaries of 1.2930 post-US poor data.

In general, the likeliness of the Fed tapering its ongoing QE programme plus the economic weakness surrounding the euro area are the main catalysts of the recent fragility around the euro, keeping the FX community outlook on the cross heavily tilted to the downside:

“EUR/USD should enjoy some support from a dovish Bernanke but Europe’s grim economic momentum suggests selling the pair on rallies”, recommended Sean Callow, Strategist at Westapac.

Furthermore, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, suggested, “Key short term resistance is the resistance line drawn from the February peak, this is located at 1.3148. However only above the 1.3243 recent high would negate our bearish outlook and this is not favoured”.

And G.Berry and G.Yu, Strategists at UBS, commented, “The pair is under pressure, trading close to Wednesday’s low at 1.2843. A break below this would expose 1.2746 ahead of 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.2943 ahead of 1.3029”. Recall that the Swiss bank keeps its bearish stance on the cross.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Karen Jones at Commerzbank, Head of Technical analysis explains that the EUR/USD has sold off to and is holding at 1.2839, the 78.6% retracement of the move from April. She said that while this may prompt a small pause in the down-move, they ultimately look for it to break.

Her team highlights that this is considered to be the last defense for the 1.2740 recent low. They expect intraday rallies to fail 1.2977/1.3018 and while capped here the market will remain directly offered. Their department note’s the base of the cloud lies at 1.2939 and is expected to act as additional resistance

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The USD/CHF managed to rebound successfully off of yesterdays tumble, mounting a steadfast recovery and chugging along this morning during European trading Friday.

In these moments, the pair is now trading at 0.9672/73, still up +0.27%, despite trading slightly off its highs at 0.9688. According to the Mataf.net technical analyst team, per a rise in the USD/CHF, the cross will encounter its next short-term resistances at 0.9713, followed by 0.9777, and 0.9844. Conversely, the pair is set to face calculated support at 0.9582, then 0.9515, and ultimately 0.9451.

“The USD/CHF is in great volatility but managed to stay positive. Levels 0.9610 halted the bullish momentum and brought positivity back, we think that stability above 0.9610 is enough to keep our positive expectations today. We should point out that watching the pair around 0.9770 levels as they determine the trend.” notes the ICN.com Technical Analyst team.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.967  |  CLOSE = 0.9675  |  HIGH = 0.9678  |   LOW = 0.9668
BID = 0.9674  |  ASK = 0.9676  |   PERCENT = -0.0517
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The USD/JPY pared most of yesterday’s losses overnight, recently capped at the 102.59 figure (session high), before easing back towards 102.45/49 in these moments during European trading.

At this juncture the cross is operating +0.20% above its opening Friday and Mataf.net analysts point to resistive means for the USD/JPY at 102.66, onto 103.10, and ultimately 103.51. Conversely, a break below the 101.81 handle will initiate support at 101.40 and 100.96.

“JGB yields are now significantly higher than they were before Kuroda's announcement on April 4th. That's a mixed blessing for life insurers who prize the absence of volatility as much as attractive returns. However if the JGB market eventually finds a new stable equilibrium at these higher yields, the case for investing overseas in search of yield enhancement would be somewhat undermined. In this case, a further extension of the USDJPY rally may be delayed until the Fed signals concrete plans to taper QE3 bond purchases.” warns Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 102.48  |  CLOSE = 102.47  |  HIGH = 102.5  |   LOW = 102.46
BID = 102.47  |  ASK = 102.48  |   PERCENT = 0.01
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

EUR/GBP had benefited from a delayed reaction in cable yesterday night. EUR had been the first to lose ground to the dollar after hearing Fed officials talking about the likeliness of tapering its current QE programme.

The EUR has shed over 80 pips since yesterday and led EUR/GBP down from resistance 0.8460/65 by 40 pips to the low 0.8420. It now drifts higher into the official London open to trade circa 0.8440/46.

This pair has been oscillating between indecisive counterparts since Tuesday from a high of 0.8517. It's direction or any possible breakouts will be determined in the price action of those pairs where the market is more concentrated. Support comes at 0.8420, yesterdays low, followed by the 0.8394 fib line where the pair has failed previously in April lows.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.8441  |  CLOSE = 0.844  |  HIGH = 0.8449  |   LOW = 0.8438
BID = 0.844  |  ASK = 0.8441  |   PERCENT = 0.0118
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (London) - In yesterday’s European session we saw Sterling bounce from 1.5200 support and climb to a high of 1.5320 on poor US data in an oversubscribed and very long USD market place.

The US session capped that move and put the pair back into it’s place when Aisia took over. Asian market bears have offered the quote over to us in Europe again and this morning we are taking over 20 pips below pivot point 1.5263 where the pair is now ebbing and flowing.

The session will be quite light data wise today, but there is the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (May) coming up in the afternoon at 14.55 BST and indeed Bernanke is speaking on Saturday, at 1500GMT. The speech topic is “Economic Prospects for the Long Run”, and traders may wish to be square before the weekend. 1.5200 will act as support again and may be tested for a third run this week. Similar ranges are likely to apply. 1.5173 is the cloud base so the market could expect some momentum below there on a break out.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.524  |  CLOSE = 1.5237  |  HIGH = 1.5242  |   LOW = 1.5232
BID = 1.5237  |  ASK = 1.5239  |   PERCENT = 0.0197
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - With EUR/SEK slightly up on the week at 8.5916 but just off Tuesday´s weekly high at 8.6570, the highest since early February, RBS Strategist Greg Gibbs can see a potential trade opportunity.

He writes, “It’s not in my normal comfort zone, but a trade I am looking at is long EUR/SEK,” He favours this view as part of a persistent move towards a decrease in fear surrounding the EUR crisis. Further, he feels that part of the reason for a weaker AUD of late has been less safe haven demand, and the same applies for SEK. Gibbs finishes by expanding, commenting that, “Recent indicators in SEK also suggest its economy under-performing,”

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Richard Yetsenga, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ, believes that it is easy to associate strong recent global currency moves with expectations of future Fed activity.

Nevertheless, he continues to note that ANZ economists are certainly not expecting any Fed tapering of its bond purchases until early 2014. He continues to add, “The recent fall in inflation indicators is supportive of that call, as are the underlying signs of further repair still needed in the US labour market.”

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The selling pressure surrounding the Australian dollar remains intact on Friday, after the cross left behind the key support at 0.9800 overnight to currently trade around the mid 0.97s.

“The Aussie’s decline has been orderly, and given the RBA’s easing bias and lingering concerns over China’s economy, AUD/USD seems set to probe fresh lows since early June
2012”, suggested Sean Callow, Strategist at the Australian Westpac.

At the moment the cross is losing 0.62% at 0.9747 with the next support at 0.9738 (low Jun.6 2012) ahead of 0.9711 (low Jun.5 2012) and finally the psychological level at 0.9600.
On the upside, a breakout of 0.9885 (hourly highs May 16) would expose 0.9913 (high May 16) and then 0.9920 (high May 15).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9749  |  CLOSE = 0.9743  |  HIGH = 0.9751  |   LOW = 0.9735
BID = 0.9742  |  ASK = 0.9743  |   PERCENT = 0.0616
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Richard Yetsenga, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ, believes that it would be easy to suggest that the strong recent global currency moves are based on expectations that the Fed might taper its bond purchases soon.

He continues to note that ANZ economists are certainly not expecting any Fed tapering until early 2014. He writes, “The recent fall in inflation indicators is supportive of that call, as are the underlying signs of further repair still needed in the US labour market.”

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The shared currency is retracing yesterday’s gains after climbing to the area of 1.2930 post-US data to the current region of 1.2880/85.

The knee-jerk in the USD rally that sparked a ray of hope amongst bulls proved to be short lived, with the greenback returning to full speed towards the end of the session in Wall St. on Thursday, after Fed officials kept alive the likeliness of the Fed tapering its current QE programme.

As of writing, EUR/USD is down 0.14% at 1.2864 with the next support at 1.2843 (low May 15) ahead of the psychological mark at 1.2800 and finally 1.2740 (2013 low Apr.14).
On the flip side, resistance levels line up at 1.2943 (high May 15) followed by 1.3030 (high May 14) and then 1.3050 (MA30d).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.2866  |  CLOSE = 1.2861  |  HIGH = 1.2868  |   LOW = 1.286
BID = 1.2861  |  ASK = 1.2862  |   PERCENT = 0.0389
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - During May 16, Nomura asked global clients to share their views on the Yen. The key results were: "1) A majority of investors hold USDJPY longs. Their conviction is higher than in previous surveys. 2) Most frequent USDJPY target is 105-110 for end-2013 and 110-115 for end-2014. 3) Hedge funds and retail investors are expected to be the two key drivers for further JPY weakness. 4) Expectations for the BOJ to achieve 2% inflation is clearly higher than previous surveys..."

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Nasty day for commodity currencies “down under” such as the Aussie that has lost -0.81% in the current session alone, and about -2.77% for the week so far, last at fresh 11-month lows 0.9740. The NZD/USD posted a fresh 6-month low below the 0.81 handle, and USD/CAD a 1-month high at 1.0223. EUR/USD was more stable down 20 pips at 1.2860, while USD/JPY was mostly unchanged around the 102.25 level.

Local share markets show green lights all around, with Kospi up +0.82%, Nikkei index again above the 15k points mark up +0.50% for the day, and Australian ASX higher by +0.47%, while US futures did not move much. Gold fell to the $1380 mark, while Oil slipped below the $95 handle.

Japan posted the best Core machinery orders in over a year, up more than +14% m/m, way above the +3% market expected, showing some signs of economic recovery, and China Conference Board Leading Index rose a +1.5% in April, at the fastest pace for this year.

Fed’s Williams: Expects inflation to edge back up

Soros cuts Gold holdings

Commodities Brief: Precious metals finish mixed, Oil adds to previous gains

USD/JPY finishes slightly lower after narrow range day

Japan's GDP, Machine orders hint at improving fundamentals

GBP/USD showing signs of bottoming, more upside to follow? - 2nd Skies Forex

Greek PM Samaras speaking in Beijing – says Greece is ‘anchored’ in the Eurozone

NZD/USD blasts through previous session lows as support at 0.8140 folds

China’s Jiang: EU is the main instrument for diversifying China’s FX reserves

AUD/USD, how far can it go? 0.9750/10 next demand

Technical picture continues to become more bearish for EUR/USD

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - An earthquake has hit the town of Christchurch in New Zealand, with media reporting that it was the first to be felt with so much intensity in months.

According to the New Zealand Herald, "initial reports by GeoNet said it was a magnitude-4.1 shake, located 25km south-west of Christchurch, near Darfield, at a depth of 7km."

The New Zealand-based newspaper also reports on people's reaction on twitter: "Sharp jolt in Cashmere. Scared the beejesus out of me,'' said one person on the TradeMe community forum. Another saying: "A wobble and a bit of noise ... first one I've felt in months ... I actually said a rude word!''

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/USD traded in a fairly narrow range, closing flat on the session at 1.2883. After recent US economic data had come in better than expected the past few weeks, this week has been a different story to say the least. Economic reports out of the US came in below expectations again in the past session, which initially helped the EUR/USD bounce off earlier lows made during the European session. The only major report due out of either region will be the Michigan Consumer Confidence data at 13:55GMT

According to analysts at Westpac, “EUR/USD rallied from under 1.2850 early London to a high of 1.2930 after the mostly weak US data. The subsequent decline to 1.2870/80 came in part on comments from European Commission’s Tajani who said the euro is too strong and that the ECB should be “more like the Fed”, managing the “currency in a way that supports exports.”

They went on to add ”EUR/USD fell about 30 pips on comments from SF Fed president Williams, who said that the Fed could “reduce somewhat the pace of our securities purchases, perhaps as early as this summer” and end the program late this year “if all goes as hoped.” Williams actually made the same comments on 3 April but the market is very sensitive to all talk of QE ‘tapering’.”

However, there were also remarks from Eurozone officials that helped cap any serious EUR/USD advances. According to Kathy Lien at BK Asset Management, “The euro came under selling pressure today against the U.S. dollar after European Industry Commissioner Tajani tried to talk down the currency. As the head of an agency whose goal is to protect the export sector, Tajani complained that the euro is too strong and called on the central bank to manage the currency in a way that would help exports. Considering that the euro has been in a downtrend since the beginning of the month and has lost over 5% since the beginning of February, some investors may be surprised by the timing of Tajani's comments”


From a short term technical perspective, the 1 hour chart is starting to display charteristics of picking up bearish momentum. The RSI (14) has recently broken back below 40 (note it failed the 60 level perfectly on two different occasions yesterday), which could contribute to further momentum selling. Furthermore, price remains below both the 9 and 20 dma’s which should continue to influence a “sell the rally” mentality.

Furthermore, looking at the long term picture there are two important developments to point out. The first is that the pair is now approaching a support trend line (1.2850 area) on the weekly chart that connects the swing lows from late July 2012 and March/April 2013. A break of this level would most likely lead to further selling down towards the 1.2770 (neckline of head & shoulders on weekly chart). Note this pattern has been forming since Sept 2012, and if confirmed has a measured move price target down near 1.1870. It should be noted the ADX (7) is still downward sloping and at an extremely low value (21.40) on the weekly chart. Expect this indicator to really take off and display strong trend characteristics should the head & shoulders top pattern be confirmed.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.2856  |  CLOSE = 1.2861  |  HIGH = 1.2862  |   LOW = 1.2854
BID = 1.2859  |  ASK = 1.2861  |   PERCENT = -0.0389
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Following a negative day in the US, with major equity indexes off yesterday's all time highs, all share markets across the Asia-Pacific are posting gains, lead by the Korean Kospi that advances around a +0.84% for the day so far, to end a positive week overall in the region. Nikkei index regains the 15000 handle, up +0.32% for the day at 15090.

Shanghai index is up +0.13%, Hong-Kong's Hang-Seng climbs +0.17%, and Australian ASX gains +0.46%, all helped on risk on sentiment, on the back of best Japan core machinery orders in over a year, and China CB leading index at the highest of the year.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The Australian Dollar is the big story in the Forex market at the moment, after falling without mercy for 10 days in a row (if today's losses are confirmed), erasing in the process almost 600 pips or a 6% off its value vs the USD.

Many traders are understandably starting to question how far can the decline go until a meaningful correction is in place. To find clues, let's look at the price action history. Firstly, it is worth noting how the trend has been progressing in a non-volatile fashion, with some pretty consistent order flow and weak pullbacks, suggestive of low participation from the submissive side.

Yesterday's attempts to create deeper, wilder corrective swings failed miserably after price faced with noted supply at 0.9875-90, from where the selling resumed in earnest.

Before a trend turns, there should be a more consistent buying activity producing stronger rebounds - ideally taking out previous swing highs -, an indication that the tide is turning. Only when a trend goes from non-volatile to volatile, barring a major shocker, that is when a trend reversal could be coming, an scenario that still is not present in the AUD/USD order flow, thus as recommended earlier today, "bounces should be consistently welcomed by grateful sellers at supply areas."

Moreover, the Australian Dollar/US Dollar outright liquidation is developing in a textbook impulsive/corrective nature, with the red candles being the most present, largest in the entire set and plenty of closes towards the lows vs corrective smaller bullish candles, which also show a mixture of indecisiveness when moving higher (buyers not convinced).

The next major test to measure sellers dominance will be at 0.9750/10 demand, as per last June 6 2012 bullish sentiment, with a penetration setting the stage for larger losses towards early June'12 lows at 0.9580.

On the upside, it is going to be a tough series of battles for the Aussie to upgrade its 'bullish' technical status. As mentioned above, we should ideally see a wilder two-way volatility hinting at higher buyer's participation in the market.

Price should first regain 0.98 barrier followed by 0.9820/30 supply - as per the latest selloff origin - although that would be only the beginning, as no real prospects of buying strategies may make much sense until the 0.9920 resistance is out of the way.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9761  |  CLOSE = 0.9756  |  HIGH = 0.9764  |   LOW = 0.9753
BID = 0.9755  |  ASK = 0.9757  |   PERCENT = 0.0513
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - With EUR/SEK last at 8.5916, off Tuesday's weekly high at 8.6570, the highest since early Feb, and still slightly into the positive for the week, RBS FX Trading Strategist Greg Gibbs thinks is a worth looking long trade. “It’s not in my normal comfort zone, but a trade I am looking at is long EUR/SEK,” Greg says, adding: “This is because we are seeing a persistent move towards less fear of a EUR crisis,” he notes.

As he also states, “part of the reason for a weaker AUD is less safe haven demand,” which in his view, “The same is true for SEK which has acted as a haven from EUR crisis risk.”

“EUR/SEK is exhibiting the early signs of diverging from a long held down-trend,”Mr Gibbs expands, with “Recent indicators in SEK also suggest its economy under-performing,” the analysts concludes.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The Kiwi/Yen is currently trading down 65 pips at 82.93 during the Asia session, breaking below a critical support trend line which was sitting near the 0.8350 level.

According to Fan Yang, CMT, of FXTimes, "NZD/JPY has been in an ascending triangle since the middle of April. You do see a slight bullish bias in the 4H chart since 1) it is an ascending triangle, and 2) because price is still above the 200-SMA in the 4H chart, which is coincident with the ascending triangle support. A break below 83.40 could be a sign of breakout and could open up the bottom of the ascending triangle, which is around the 61.8% retracement near the 81.00 handle”

The FXStreet.com Trend Index remains slightly bearish on the 1 hour chart, while the OB/OS index reads oversold. The RSI (14) is showing a bullish divergence (price makes new low, price does not) which could help spark a short term counter-trend bounce. Initial support now sits at 82.70 (support on 1 hour chart), followed by 81.93 (the upward sloping 50dma). First resistance now sits at 83.16 (the 9dma on 1 hour chart), followed by 83.32 (the 20dma on 1 hour chart)

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 82.9  |  CLOSE = 82.91  |  HIGH = 82.95  |   LOW = 82.89
BID = 82.9  |  ASK = 82.93  |   PERCENT = -0.02
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - “It would be neat and convenient to suggest that the strong global currency moves over the past week or so are primarily based on expectations that the Fed might taper its bond purchases soon,” says Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ Richard Yetsenga, although “Certainly our economists don’t expect any Fed tapering until early 2014,” Richard warns.

“The recent fall in inflation indicators is supportive of that call, as are the underlying signs of further repair still needed in the US labour market,” the analyst concludes.

The US CPI which was released today came in at 1.1 vs. 1.3 estimates, and some analysts are quick to point out this is occurrence is now a global dilemma which could have an interesting impact on the foreign exchange market.

The US CPI which was released today came in at 1.1 vs. 1.3 estimates, and some analysts are quick to point out this is occurrence is now a global dilemma which could have an interesting impact on the foreign exchange market.
According to analysts at ANZ, “The fall in inflation in recent months has become central. We have seen downside inflation surprises from the US, EU, China, Australia, the Philippines and Taiwan, among others. Our China Commodity Index, which foreshadowed the fall in the China CPI, has been negative in %y/y terms since the beginning of 2012.”

They went on to comment,” It has taken us some time to determine what this inflation dynamic meant for currencies. One obvious conclusion from much lower global inflation is that central banks would keep policy easy for longer. But again, this doesn’t fit with the recent discussion on the Fed; though of course it does fit with the price action in equities. At the very least it does suggest that those currencies struggling with high inflation will see some reprieve, and those benefitting from stronger commodity prices will lose support. That suggests favouring INR and IDR, at the margin, over AUD and NZD (we are currently long USD/IDR). “

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The USD/CHF is edging higher in Asia trade, up 20 pips at 0.9667 which is just below the important resistance trend line on the 1 hour chart near 0.9875.

The FXStreet.com Trend Index remains slightly bullish on the 1 hour chat, while the OB/OS index reads overbought. Short term moving averages on the 1 hour chart are also bullish, with price sitting above both the 9 and 20 dma’s. Initial resistance sits at 0.9675 (noted above), followed by 0.9708 (reversal candle on 1 hour chart). Initial support sits at 0.9644 (the 20 dma on 1 hour chart) , followed by 0.9611 (bullish demand candle on 1 hour chart)

From a short term pattern perspective on the 1 hour chart, the current set up resembles a ‘bull flag’ continuation pattern which would need an hourly close above the 0.9675 resistance channel to be confirmed. The measured move price target from this short term pattern is up near the 0.9900 area.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9665  |  CLOSE = 0.9666  |  HIGH = 0.9667  |   LOW = 0.9663
BID = 0.9664  |  ASK = 0.9669  |   PERCENT = -0.0103
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 2  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - AUD/JPY is currently at 99.86, off fresh session and 3-week lows at 99.77, bellow the key 100 round mark for second time since the month started. The cross is down -2.05% for the week so far, even though is still up +12% year to date, and +21.15% in last 6 months.

As James Glynn just pointed out in his Twitter account, Senior Economics Reporter at Dow Jones/Wall Street Journal, “Best explanation for AUD fall so far is simple Japanese liquidation. So much for the watanabe rush post-BOJ easing theory,” James said. The move lower in AUD/JPY comes in the back almost completely of Aussie weakness, being the weakest major currency among all in last 2 trading days.

Immediate support to the downside form AUD/JPY lies at recent session/3-week lows 99.77, followed by March 25 highs at 99.44, and March 27 highs/May 02 lows at 99.33. To the upside, closest resistance shows at yesterday's/May 02 lows 100.25, followed by May 07/08/09 lows at 100.40, and Tuesday's lows at 100.67.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 99.88  |  CLOSE = 99.91  |  HIGH = 99.94  |   LOW = 99.86
BID = 99.87  |  ASK = 99.97  |   PERCENT = -0.03
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The US CPI which was released today came in at 1.1 vs. 1.3 estimates, and some analysts are quick to point out this is occurrence is now a global dilemma which could have an interesting impact on the foreign exchange market.

According to analysts at ANZ, “The fall in inflation in recent months has become central. We have seen downside inflation surprises from the US, EU, China, Australia, the Philippines and Taiwan, among others. Our China Commodity Index, which foreshadowed the fall in the China CPI, has been negative in %y/y terms since the beginning of 2012.”

They went on to comment,” It has taken us some time to determine what this inflation dynamic meant for currencies. One obvious conclusion from much lower global inflation is that central banks would keep policy easy for longer. But again, this doesn’t fit with the recent discussion on the Fed; though of course it does fit with the price action in equities. At the very least it does suggest that those currencies struggling with high inflation will see some reprieve, and those benefitting from stronger commodity prices will lose support. That suggests favouring INR and IDR, at the margin, over AUD and NZD (we are currently long USD/IDR). “

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)