Notícias

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The USD/CHF foreign exchange rate has eased off of earlier highs, which capped the rise at 0.9362 during European trading Thursday.

USD/CHF clinging to resistance

Following a general easing, the USD/CHF still clings to the majority of its gains on the day at 0.9334, recording a steadfast rise of +0.52%. At the time of writing, the pair still is trading at resistance at 0.9331, with additional means lying higher at 0.9339 and 0.9476, notes the Mataf.net analyst team.

USD/CHF driven by central banks

After yesterdays FOMC insights, the USD/CHF received a massive influx of trading, however this action was not limited to simply the Fed. Earlier today the SNB Interest Rate Decision was held at 0.0%, which held in line with expectations of 0.0%, offering little surprises to investors.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9333  |  CLOSE = 0.9325  |  HIGH = 0.9334  |   LOW = 0.9318
BID = 0.9324  |  ASK = 0.9326  |   PERCENT = 0.0858
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (London) - USD/JPY had remained well bid in the opening of the European session but has since shed some 60 pips to the downside.

USD/JPY reached a high of 98.34 as traders propelled the dollars broad based onslaught. But it doesn’t really take Einstein to tell us again what goes up, must come down – does it? Most likely not, as indicated with the stops being placed and some that will have been triggered there below the figure. To re-iterate, the pair has recovered from the recent correction in the Yen with the statements form the FOMC overnight. While there were no changes to the current pace of QE, a comment was made as follows: "the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall”, which sent the market in a ‘risk-off’ flurry again in broad based dollar rally. In all, the statement was a little more upbeat on the economy but showed little concern about inflation, except there being a more upbeat unemployment rate which might bring in a rate hike in a little closer.

USD/JPY capped

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank explained only an unexpected rise above the resistance line at 98.95 would
neutralise their outlook and imply another test of the 103.74 May high. They note that the 20 and 55 day moving averages have crossed over and these offer additional resistance above the market at 99.06/14.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 97.75  |  CLOSE = 97.88  |  HIGH = 97.91  |   LOW = 97.74
BID = 97.86  |  ASK = 97.87  |   PERCENT = -0.13
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The European stock experienced heavy losses Thursday, as global indices followed the US markets down yesterday.

Beginning with commodities, the prices of gold and silver are trading at session lows, trading more specifically at USD $1299.56 and $20.01 per oz. respectively. In addition, the price of crude is operating at USD $96.14/bbl Thursday.

Equities in fierce pullback

Moving to indices and composites, the EURO STOXX 50 fell -2.50% as it settles in region of 2616.92, down -67.26 points in these moments. In addition, the FTSE 100 moved lower Thursday, operating at 6204.21 descending -144.21 points or -2.27% at the time of writing. Finally, the DAX has weakened recently as well, trading in the zone of 7998.93 presently -2.42% after a movement of -198.15 points.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Nomura economists have reflected on last night upbeat FOMC economic projections and the Policy Statement given by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Overall they note that today, markets have a better sense of where the FOMC is going. Additionally, greater clarity about policy should, over time, help to reduce volatility. However, they write, “But the content of the message delivered today is that the FOMC is further along in its thinking about “normalizing” the stance of monetary policy than we had anticipated.”

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The EUR/USD foreign exchange rate has relinquished its grip on the 1.3200 barrier Thursday, experiencing a further decline during European trading.

EUR/USD falls below first support

At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at session lows, incurring a loss of -0.84% Thursday, and negotiating an exchange rate of 1.3182. After moving below support at 1.3227, the Mataf.net analyst team has identified the next short-term measures of support at 1.3168, and 1.3074. Alternatively, resistance lies below at 1.3380, onto 1.3470, and 1.3533.

EUR/USD upside still remains defined despite downtrend

According to Analyst Karen Jones at Commerzbank, “The EUR/USD has fallen after its recent were pared – the daily RSI and directly overhead lies 1.3440/52, the 200-week MA and the 2011-2013 resistance line. This is key resistance and we are at last seeing signs of failure.”

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3193  |  CLOSE = 1.3201  |  HIGH = 1.3204  |   LOW = 1.3181
BID = 1.32  |  ASK = 1.3201  |   PERCENT = -0.0606
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -2  |  OBO Recommendation = Extremely

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank suspects that USD/JPY will continue to base build post FOMC, while AUD/USD downside risks may have become entrenched.

He begins with USD/JPY, commenting that the pair may continue to base build after the FOMC with now a classic story of contrasts (i.e., Fed vs. BOJ) at play. He writes, “Near term resistance for the pair is expected going into the 100-day MA (96.85) and then the 98.00 neighborhood. A potential impediment to any USD-JPY ascent however may stem from Nikkei weakness and/or the heavy JPY crosses if global appetite sours again.” Moving to AUD/USD, he feels that post Bernanke, the downside risks for the AUD may have become more entrenched in the near term, especially with the latest RBA meeting minutes essentially on the opposite end of the spectrum relative to the Fed statement and Bernanke’s comments. He writes, “We look for the pair to seek comfort towards the 0.9200 floor in the interim.”

YoutradeFX.com (London) - GBP/USD had bounced on better than expected retail sales numbers.

Retails sales came in much better than expected, at 1.9% vrs 0.2% expected (YoY) for May and 2.1% vrs 0.8% expected month on month. These numbers will have benefitted from the 4% month on month plunge in food store sales, warmer weather and corporate result for May, with a push higher in the services PMI rebound story. Sterling jumped much higher to eventually find offers against 1.5473 and currently the pair are heading south again, steady at 1.5445/50. Next up are US numbers in the afternoon. Initial Jobless Claims (12.30GMT) Markit Manufacturing (12.58 GMT), Existing Home sales Change and Philly Fed (14.00GMT).

GBP/USD looking bearish

GBP/USD is trading above key support 1.5404 EMA50, printing a low of 1.5410 so far, with indicators in the red. Next support is the 61.8% fib at 1.5377, and 1.5307 as 50%fib, targeting in broader terms 1.5008 and 1.4833 to the down side.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5449  |  CLOSE = 1.545  |  HIGH = 1.5452  |   LOW = 1.5447
BID = 1.5449  |  ASK = 1.5452  |   PERCENT = -0.0065
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey – Orders rose to -18 in June, from -20 in May, according to data released today by the Confederation of British Industry. Analysts expected the indicator to increase to -15.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - GBP/JPY spiked from 149.78 on the FOMC comments to reach 151.74 before some minor resistance.

GBP/JPY higher on data

On two counts of data, the pair has continued higher to oscillate between 151.55 acting as support and 151.88, the high in London. Last night came the release of FOMC, when the market listened to the committee’s statement. While there were no changes to the current pace of QE, a comment was made as follows: "the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall”, which sent the market in a ‘risk-off’ flurry again in broad based dollar rally. In all, the statement was a little more upbeat on the economy but showed little concern about inflation, except there being a more upbeat unemployment rate which might bring in a rate hike in a little closer. The GBP/JPY has been one of the worst performers since the release in typical ‘risk-off’ fashion.

The pair was even able to extend yet more gains on the UK high-street releases. Retails sales came in much better than expected this morning, at 1.9% vrs 0.2% expected (YoY) for May and 2.1% vrs 0.8% expected month on month. These numbers will have benefitted from the 4% month on month plunge in food store sales, warmer weather and corporate result for May, with a push higher in the services PMI rebound story. Sterling jumped much higher to eventually find offers against 1.5473 and currently the pair are heading south again, capping GBP/JPY here for the time being. Key support comes in Feb highs 147.80 while MA’s longer term offer an upside bias and targets 153.70 daily double top.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 151.38  |  CLOSE = 151.39  |  HIGH = 151.46  |   LOW = 151.26
BID = 151.37  |  ASK = 151.4  |   PERCENT = -0.01
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - According to Technical Strategist Dmytro Bondar at RBS, “Bund prices failed to break the 20-day MA and a Fed-triggered selloff eliminated the possibility of an inverse head and shoulders formation.”

Remarkably, oscillators stay bullish, especially slow stochastic with standard parameters, which has formed a positive crossover in the oversold region. This leads me to believe there should be a bounce in the price, which is currently supported at the 141.86/96 retracements.

Moreover, “A break of 141.86 would be a signal to turn to a bear market with next support at 141.35/28 and 140.85. If right, and the bounce materializes, the major obstacles would be 142.95/143.15 and 143.94.” Bondar adds.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The USD/CAD foreign exchange rate is establishing fresh session highs Thursday during European trading, having continued its ascent after yesterdays Fed-induced rise.

At the time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.0375 (session high), up a robust +0.97% during European trading. Given the recent breakout, Mataf.net analysts point to the next level of resistive correction for the USD/CAD at 1.0433 (previous resistances at 1.0320 and 1.0360 were shattered).

USD/CAD extension likely

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The USD/CAD moved sharply to the upside yesterday as expected and we see it trading markedly higher with the beginning of the European session – stability above this level is positive and might extend bullishness. Trading above 1.0215 is positive and could push the pair further to the upside.”

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.0374  |  CLOSE = 1.0376  |  HIGH = 1.0379  |   LOW = 1.0367
BID = 1.0374  |  ASK = 1.0378  |   PERCENT = -0.0193
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 2  |  OBO Recommendation = Extremely

YoutradeFX.com (London) - NZD/USD dropped from 0.8051 to 0.7856 post FOMC before it found a bounce on profits taking.

NZD/USD post FOMC

NZD/USD has continued to print lower lows post FOMC in the European session, with the low so far as being 0.7763 Last night came the release of FOMC, when the market listened to the committee’s statement. While there were no changes to the current pace of QE, a comment was made as follows: "the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall”, which sent the market in a ‘risk-off’ flurry again in broad based dollar rally. In all, the statement was a little more upbeat on the economy but showed little concern about inflation, except there being a more upbeat unemployment rate which might bring in a rate hike in a little closer. The Aussie and Kiwi have been one of the worst performers since the release in typical risk off fashion. Data wise, next up in focus will be from the US again in the form of Initial Jobless Claims (12.30GMT), Markit Manufacturing (12.58 GMT), Existing Home sales Change and Philly Fed (14.00GMT).

NZD/USD looking Bearish

NZD/USD hourly oscillators are showing downside bias, with and RSI at 24 on the hourly charts. Shorter term hourly and longer term MAs all showing a downside bias. Looking at immediate support paring earlier lows for a double touch at 0.7760 targeting 0.7500 and 0.7456, the May low.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.7752  |  CLOSE = 0.776  |  HIGH = 0.7764  |   LOW = 0.7752
BID = 0.7758  |  ASK = 0.7765  |   PERCENT = -0.1031
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The EUR/GBP technical cross collapsed below support Thursday, having destabilized towards session lows during European trading.

Earlier today in the United Kingdom, Retail Sales (YoY) climbed +1.9% in May, beating estimates of only +0.2%. Moreover, the Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) netted a gain +2.1%, vs. projections calling for +0.5%.

EUR/GBP needs to regain the 0.8600 barrier to extend upside

According to the ICN.com Technical Analyst Team, “The EUR/GBP pair is hesitating around the neckline for the inverted head and shoulders pattern since yesterday. A break and stabilization above the neckline, and preferably the 0.8600 level confirms further upside and a potential retest of the latest highs around 0.8800.”

At the time of writing, the EUR/GBP technical cross is trading near session lows at 0.8532. Following an earlier drop below support at 0.8556, the Mataf.net analyst team posits the pair will face calculated support at 0.8525, then 0.8505. On the ascension, a break above the 0.8604 handle will initiate resistance at 0.8621 and 0.8652.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.8536  |  CLOSE = 0.8539  |  HIGH = 0.8543  |   LOW = 0.8533
BID = 0.8538  |  ASK = 0.8539  |   PERCENT = -0.0351
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The USD/JPY foreign exchange rate has sailed considerably higher, recently peaking at the 98.34 level (session high) during European trading Thursday.

USD/JPY upside capped by second resistance

Perhaps no pair has received more of an impetus than the USD/JPY, which at the time of writing is now surging again today at 97.95 or +1.54% thus far. Following a movement above resistance at 97.40, Mataf.net analysts calculate additional resistances for the pair at 98.31 (session high), onto 99.66. On the downside, a break below the 95.20 handle will initiate support at 93.92 and 93.00.

USD/JPY will extend bullishness above 96.10

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The USD/JPY moved to the upside breaching and stabilizing above key resistance level of the bearish move. The linear regression indicators reflect positivity that started by breaching the referred to resistance level, and stability above 96.10 is positive and might extend bullishness.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 97.95  |  CLOSE = 98.05  |  HIGH = 98.07  |   LOW = 97.9
BID = 98.03  |  ASK = 98.05  |   PERCENT = -0.1
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (London) - AUD/USD dropped in free fall from 0.9559 until 0.9261 before it found a base over night.

AUD/USD on FOMC

Last night came the release of FOMC, when the market listened to the committee’s statement. While there were no changes to the current pace of QE, a comment was made as follows: "the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall”, which sent the market in a ‘risk-off’ flurry again in broad based dollar rally. In all, the statement was a little more upbeat on the economy but showed little concern about inflation, except there being a more upbeat unemployment rate which might bring in a rate hike in a little closer. The Aussie has been one of the worst performers since the release in typical risk off fashion. While there are no further announcements for the Australian economy later tonight, next up in focus will be yet further US data in the form of, Initial Jobless Claims (12.30GMT), Markit Manufacturing (12.58 GMT), Existing Home sales Change and Philly Fed (14.00GMT).

AUD/USD price action

AUD/USD dropped from 0.9559 until 0.9261 before it found a base to take profits until 0.9315 post FOMC statements. 0.9163 has been the low so far in the European session before a bounce to print above 0.9200 the figure only to find resistance at 0.9214. Technically, the pair are trading well below pivot 0.9379, which acts as resistance. There are bearish momentum indicators and the shorter term MA’s are showing a downside bias. Price target comes in at the psychological handle of 0.9000, yet further levels to the downside not seen since 2010.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9197  |  CLOSE = 0.9196  |  HIGH = 0.9201  |   LOW = 0.9191
BID = 0.9195  |  ASK = 0.9197  |   PERCENT = 0.0109
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The Spanish Tesoro Público held a debt auction on Thursday during which it sold a total of 4.015 billion euros worth of 5- 8-and 10-year bonds.

1.381 billion euros of bonds maturing in 2018 were auctioned at an average yield of 3.59%, compared with 3% seen at the previous auction. 1.117 billion euros of bonds maturing in 2023 were auctioned at an average yield of 4.35% versus 4.47%. 1.517 billion euros worth of 10-year bonds yielded 4.76%, almost 0.25% higher than 4.51% seen at the previous auction.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The USD/CHF technical pair shot up yesterday following the FOMC, though recently peaked at the 0.9350 level (session high), before easing slightly in recent moments.

USD/CHF bullish extension not valid

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The USD/CHF moved to the upside but until now it is still limited below the previously broken harmonic support level. Stability below the support that turned to resistance 0.9375 and below 78.6% correction at 0.9340 forbids us from suggesting a bullish extension.”

USD/CHF resistance remains intact

Amidst the recent steadfast performance today, the USD/CHF is now settling at 0.9339 in these moments, securing a gain of +0.62% above it’s opening. With the pair firmly entrenched in positive territory, the Mataf.net analyst team points to the next levels of resistive correction at 0.9331, onto 0.9399, and finally 0.9476. Conversely, the pair will face support at 0.9186, onto 0.9109, and eventually 0.9041.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9329  |  CLOSE = 0.9345  |  HIGH = 0.9347  |   LOW = 0.9323
BID = 0.9343  |  ASK = 0.9344  |   PERCENT = -0.1712
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The EUR/USD foreign exchange rate tumbled yesterday following the Fed fallout, only to extend this weakness today during European trading.

Earlier today in the EMU, Markit Manufacturing PMI (June) came in at 48.7, beating expectations of 48.6. Moreover, the Markit PMI Composite (June) yielded 48.9, exceeding estimates of only 48.1.

EUR/USD trading at support

After bottoming out at 1.3193 (session low), the pair is presently trading at 1.3220, down -0.56% off it’s opening. Technically speaking, Mataf.net analysts identify the next short-term measures of support at 1.3227, then 1.3168, and 1.3074. Meanwhile, resistance lies below at 1.3380, onto 1.3470, and 1.3533.

EUR/USD bearishness might extend

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, "The EUR/USD dropped sharply yesterday and stabilized below 1.3270, which is negative and might extend bearishness today as momentum indicators reflect negativity. The pair didn’t fail the upside move yet, but breaking 1.3270 levels weakened it."

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3221  |  CLOSE = 1.3221  |  HIGH = 1.3226  |   LOW = 1.3213
BID = 1.3221  |  ASK = 1.3226  |   PERCENT = 0
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Richard Franulovich, Rob Rennie at WIB said that markets were clearly set up for an FOMC statement and press conference yesterday that would soothe anxieties around Fed policy. Instead, they said, we were confronted with a Fed that is giving off much less dovish fumes. “Markets are not used to getting ‘the cold shoulder’ from Bernanke. This makes yesterday’s press conference all the more difficult to digest. But digest we will have to”.

They believe that the USD has now found a strong base here and should see multi-day gains going forward. “In contrast to the Fed’s less dovish tack, Draghi reiterated in the last day or so that the ECB is still very open to providing yet further support in the form of non-standard measures, seemingly backtracking on his message at last month’s ECB meeting. For much of the last few weeks amid the tapering debate USD gains have been narrowly concentrated against the AUD and emerging markets currencies. Coming days should see USD strength on a broader front. EUR looks to be the very obvious short here”. They explain that they find it very hard to believe that EUR can continue sitting in the 1.32 to 1.33 range that it has been in since the beginning of June.

They have therefore added a short EUR/USD position to their ForeX Focus portfolio at current levels (1.3208) and will look to add more on strength to 1.3350. If they are correct in their view, EUR should not trade above the recent high so they will place a stop above 1.3400. The objective on the trade would be for a move back towards important support levels off the April and May lows which come in around 1.2850.

Analyst Karen Jones at Commerzbank said that EUR/USD minor new gains were not confirmed by the daily RSI and directly overhead lays 1.3440/52, the 200-week ma and the 2011-2013 resistance line. She said this is key resistance and they are at last seeing signs of failure.

Currently, she said, the Elliott wave count is suggesting we will see a pullback to 1.3190/1.3125, however they suspect we will see a deeper sell off…the 55+ 200 day moving averages at 1.3077/73 lies at 1.2839/1.2796 which guards the 1.2740 April low. She see’s Initial resistance at 1.3355/85 ahead of 1.3440/52. Current position: Short 1.3367. Recommended trade: Lower stops from 1.3510 to 1.3455. Partially cover 1.3180 and cover the remainder 1.3100

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that AUD has come under pressure following Chinese data.

He writes, “The high yielding Australian dollar has also come under further downward pressure overnight following more evidence of weakening economic growth momentum in China. The HSBC flash manufacturing PMI survey unexpectedly declined to 48.3 in June from 49.2 in May.”

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - DBS Group analysts note that in the Eurozone, the key message from the G8 leaders this week was to expedite efforts to form the banking union.

They note that while talks of establishing a centralised banking backstop hit its peak during the sovereign crisis, the momentum has since floundered as the currency-area gained an upper hand on the financial crisis. They write, “The main bug bear in the game-plan is the difference in opinions between the central bank and the national governments on the level of commitment required from the concerned parties and loss of sovereignty, by extension.”

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - GBP/USD bounced from 1.5414 to a high of 1.5466 on the 5 min chart after the UK Retails sales.

GBP/USD on UK Retails Sales

Retails Sales came in much better than expected at 1.9% vrs 0.2% expected (YoY) for May and 2.1% vrs 0.8% expected month on month. These numbers will have benefitted from the 4% month on month plunge in food store sales, warmer weather and corporate result for May, with a push higher in the services PMI rebound story. The pair found offers eventually at 1.5473. Next up is US data in the form of, Initial Jobless Claims (12.30GMT) Markit Manufacturing (12.58 GMT), Existing Home sales Change and Philly Fed (14.00GMT).

GBP/USD capped at 1.5473

GBP/USD found offers at 1.5473 and the pair remains broadly offered above the key support 1.5404 since the release of the FOMC, with indicators in the red. Next support is the 61.8% fib at 1.5377, and 1.5307 as 50%fib, targeting in broader terms 1.5008 and 1.4833 to the down side. However, on the daily charts, while the pair remain above 1.5150 the trend targets 1.5975.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5438  |  CLOSE = 1.5462  |  HIGH = 1.5473  |   LOW = 1.5438
BID = 1.5461  |  ASK = 1.5466  |   PERCENT = -0.1552
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - National Statistics informed on Thursday that year-over-year UK Retail Sales increased 1.9% in May, compared with the 0.8% rise in April and above forecasts of +0.2%.

On a monthly basis UK Retail Sales climbed 2.1% in May, after falling 1.1% in April and against expectations of growing 0.8%.

Annual Retail Sales excluding Fuel increased 2.1%, up from the 0.2% rise and above market consensus of 0.6% growth. Month-over-month Retail Sales excluding Fuel edged up 2.1%, following a 1.2% decrease and exceeding expectations of +0.9%.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Having largely ranged throughout the Asian and early European session, EUR/GBP has declined in the immediate reaction to UK Retail Sales data.

The pair ranged overnight, unmoved by Fed Chairman Bernanke´s admission that the Central Bank will look to start tapering QE during 2013. However, EUR/GBP declined in early trading after soft German PPI data, which saw spot decline to post a low at 0.8556, before finding support and edging higher after better than expected EU PPI numbers. UK Retail Sales data has leapfrogged expectations at 1.9%/0.2% YoY, 2.1%/0.8% MoM, 2.1%/0.5% ex Fuel YoY and 2.1%/0.9% ex Fuel MoM. The immediate reaction has seen spot post a fresh daily low at 0.8536.

EUR/GBP looks technically bearish

Hourly oscillators are showing some downside bias, with Stochastics moving from overbought overnight to 42 and RSI is at 33. Shorter term hourly MAs are showing a downside bias, while longer term are either flat or bullish. Looking at immediate support below, classic S1 is at 0.8555, and S2 at 0.8523. Above resistance can be found at the daily Pivot at 0.8573 and R1 at 0.8605.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.8559  |  CLOSE = 0.8545  |  HIGH = 0.8559  |   LOW = 0.8535
BID = 0.8545  |  ASK = 0.8545  |   PERCENT = 0.1638
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

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YoutradeFX.com (London) - After an initial bit of downward pressure on the London open, USD/JPY has continued to move up.

USD/JPY denies offers

USD/JPY printed a low of 97.73 before moving higher again to print 98.34 so far this morning. The pair are being taken higher by the bulls after last nights FOMC and continued statements from officials which mark a Us economy which is improving. Although the statement wasn’t markedly any more encouraging than previous, there was a change in language, which implied that the first rate hike may come sooner. Later on we have more US data coming up int he form of Initial Jobless Claims (12.30GMT) Markit Manufacturing (12.58 GMT), Existing Home sales Change and Philly Fed (14.00GMT).

USD/JPY continues higher

After the release of the FOMC, the USD/JPY pierced a significant level to the upside which was the trend line determining the recent bearish channel. With that area now well breached, the pair can continue higher with that level now acting as a support area, 96.80 and 95.40. The upside move is targeting 98.80, for a close above 99.00 and to reach the psychological 100.00 the June highs.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 98.25  |  CLOSE = 98.18  |  HIGH = 98.31  |   LOW = 98.05
BID = 98.17  |  ASK = 98.21  |   PERCENT = 0.07
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Extremely

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Preliminary Eurozone PMI Manufacturing grew to 48.7 points in June, from 48.3 points in May, according to data released today by Markit. The result is almost in line with expectations of a rise to 48.6 points.

PMI Services increased to 48.6 points in June, from 47.2 points in May and above expectations of a rise to 47.5 points. Composite PMI climbed to 48.9 from 47.7, above consensus of reaching 48.1.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - The EUR/USD has continued to print lower lows in the London open and has seen leading Eurozone indicators released for Jun.

EUR/USD Data

EZ Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jun) came in 48.7 vrs 48.6 expected, Markit Composite PMI (Jun) came in as 48.9 vrs 48.1 expected and the Markit Services (Jun) came in 48.6 vrs 47.5 expected. The EUR has ticked up slightly higher from 1.3218 to find territory in the mid 1.3220’s on the data releases.

The main catalyst for moves in the pair is likely to remain with the comments from the FOMC that have set the direction yet again. While there were no changes to the current pace of QE, a comment was made as follows: "the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall”, which sent the market in a ‘risk-off’ flurry again in broad based dollar rally. Coming up later we have more data for the US in the form, Initial Jobless Claims (12.30GMT) Markit Manufacturing (12.58 GMT), Existing Home sales Change and Philly Fed (14.00GMT).

EUR/USD continues to the downside

The EUR/USD has momentum indicators in the red that could extend the bearishness of the pair throughout the European session. The move will target the 1.3200 handle and May highs and resistance. As far as areas 1.29070 are in tact, the broader trend on the daily and weekly charts is to the upside targeting 1.3600.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3224  |  CLOSE = 1.3223  |  HIGH = 1.3231  |   LOW = 1.3217
BID = 1.3223  |  ASK = 1.3224  |   PERCENT = 0.0076
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - GBP/USD has shown little movement in the immediate aftermath of improving EU PMI data.

Having declined sharply following yesterdays Bernanke Press Conference, GBP/USD stabilised overnight, mildly drifting lower to find support around 1.5425. The pair has been largely disinterested with the mornings docket of data which has seen German PPI and Swiss Trade balance data disappoint and the SNB hold rates at 0%.

EU Manufacturing PMI has come in at 48.7 ahead of expectations of 48.6, Services PMI beat forecasts at 48.6/47.5, and the PMI Composite improved too at 48.9 against expectations of 48.1. While all numbers showed an improvement, it is worth noting they they remain below the 50 expansion/contraction benchmark. Ahead, UK Retail Sales are released at 08:30 GMT.

GBP/USD technicals slightly bearish

Hourly technical oscillators remain in oversold territory, with RSI at 27 and Stochastics at 5. Hourly MA´s hold a bearish bias across lengths. Below, support can be found at the Fibonnaci S2 at 1.5397, and S3 and 1.5310. Ahead, resistance lies at S1 1.5451 and the daily pivot at 1.5538.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5446  |  CLOSE = 1.5441  |  HIGH = 1.5448  |   LOW = 1.5434
BID = 1.544  |  ASK = 1.5441  |   PERCENT = 0.0324
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

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YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The Swiss National Bank decided to leave the minimum exchange rate unchanged at CHF 1.20 per euro on Thursday and is prepared to enforce it “if necessary, by buying foreign currency in unlimited quantities, and to take further measures, as required,” as it is stated in the official document released after the decision was made known.

The SNB explains that the CHF is still high, which adversely affects the Swiss economy, thus a further increase in the currency will not be permitted.

The target range for the three-month Libor rate was also maintained at 0.0–0.25%.

The SNB stated that the risks to the Swiss economy are mainly connected with the uncertain global economic situation, especially with the crisis developments in the Eurozone.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - The SNB met today and the markets had been interested to see if the SNB ha something new to offer after the aggressive downgrade to inflation expectations in their last meeting.

The SNB have left rates unchanged as widely expected. Earlier we saw their Trade balance for May that came in bearish at 2224m vrs 2410m expected. Overnight we have saw USD/CHF react to the FOMC, when the market listened to the committee’s statement. While there were no changes to the current pace of QE, a comment was made as follows: "the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall”, which sent the market in a ‘risk-off’ flurry again in broad based dollar rally. In all, the statement was a little more upbeat on the economy but showed little concern about inflation, except there being a more upbeat unemployment rate which might bring in a rate hike in a little closer.

USD/CHF capped 0.9317

Post the release of the FOMC overnight, we saw the pair move from 0.9182 to 0.9323. This mornings trade data didn’t help the pair higher, and indeed the pair have tailed off in the London morning falling to 0.9282 from 0.9317 the high, with a muted price action on the release of the SNB holding rates at 0%. Key support is 0.9035 targeting 0.9340 and 0.9460 (April highs).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9304  |  CLOSE = 0.9299  |  HIGH = 0.9307  |   LOW = 0.9282
BID = 0.9297  |  ASK = 0.9302  |   PERCENT = 0.0538
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - EUR/CHF has declined in the immediate aftermath of the SNB decision to hold rates.

Having made a low at 1.2301 overnight, EUR/CHF has gently climbed throughout the overnight and early European session. Despite a sharp drop to 1.2303 as Swiss Trade data and German PPI numbers disappointed, spot swiftly retraced higher to post a high at 1.2338. In the immediate aftermath of the decision, EUR/CHF has declined the majority of the morning gains and is currently trading at 1.2310. Elsewhere, German Manufacturing PMI declined while Services PMI improved.

EUR/CHF technicals mildly bearish

Spot has largely traded within a confined 50 pip range for the past few days, and Hourly RSI is at 45 with a near term downside bias. Stochastics are edging lower at 36. However, hourly MA´s are showing an upside bias. Today´s support can be found at S1 1.2312 and S2 at 1.2280. Resistance above can be found at the daily pivot at 1.2338 and R1 at 1.2370.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.2334  |  CLOSE = 1.2312  |  HIGH = 1.2336  |   LOW = 1.2305
BID = 1.231  |  ASK = 1.2317  |   PERCENT = 0.1787
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -1  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Preliminary German PMI Manufacturing decreased to 48.7 points in June, from 49.4 points in May, according to data released today by Markit. The result is against market consensus of a rise to 49.8 points.

PMI Services grew to 51.3 points in June, following a 49.7 point reading the previous month and above expectations of a rise to 50 points.

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YoutradeFX.com (London) - EUR/JPY has continued to move higher after an initial 100-pip spike on the hourly candle after the release of the FOMC.

EUR/JPY risk off play

Last night came the release of FOMC, when the market listened to the committee’s statement. While there were no changes to the current pace of QE, a comment was made as follows: "the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall”, which sent the market in a ‘risk-off’ flurry again in broad based dollar rally. In all, the statement was a little more upbeat on the economy but showed little concern about inflation, except there being a more upbeat unemployment rate which might bring in a rate hike in a little closer. Data today for the pair come in the form of EZ Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jun), Markit PMI (Jun) Composite Markit Services (Jun) at 7.30GMT. EZ Consumer Confidence (14.00GMT). Earlier on, Japan’s leading economic index ticked up to 99.0 from a previous 97.7, offering yet more improvements in the economy. The market will also be monitoring the weekly Japan MoF data on portfolio flows into and out the country. Japan institutional investors have been sellers of foreign bonds and equities of late, and if this were to reverse, this could offer more impetus for the pair to continue higher. Also, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference about monetary policies in Tokyo over night.

EUR/JPY targets descending trend line

With the pair initially spiked from 127.53 through the 128.10 neckline to 128.55 on the hourly candle, EUR/JPY drifted slightly lower on profit taking before advancing again steadily up to 129.41 and through key resistance areas. The pair is targeting the main descending trend line at 129.70.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 129.3  |  CLOSE = 129.67  |  HIGH = 129.81  |   LOW = 129.26
BID = 129.63  |  ASK = 129.7  |   PERCENT = -0.28
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Brown Brothers Harriman analysts note Japanese exports are surprising some observers to the upside.

Looking back at yesterday´s data, they note that contrary to claims by some Japanese and foreign observers, the fact of the matter is that Japan's exports as a percent of GDP are more in line with the US (mid-teens) than Germany, Switzerland, Finland, Sweden and China (40-50%). They write, “Japan's exports rose 10.1% from a year ago. The market had been expecting about a 6.5% increase after 3.8% in April. Imports rose 10%, not the 11% the consensus was expecting.”

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Nomura economist Zhiwei Zhang notes that the Chinese Premier Li, has given a speech on credit growth overnight.

he begins by noting that the State Council held a meeting on 19 June to discuss credit policies, and Premier Li indicated that the government should provide more credit to high-end manufacturing industries and strategically important new industries and restrict further lending to industries that face severe overcapacity problems. Zhang adds that he did not mention the liquidity problem at the meeting, but reiterated the importance of containing financial risks.

He feels that these messages reinforce his view that policy and liquidity will remain tight, at least before the Q2 data release on 15 July. he writes, “We do not think the People's Bank of China will cut the reserve requirement ratio to increase the liquidity supply. It would be inconsistent with recent policy signals and the message from Premier Li.” Further, he notes that Industries that face overcapacity problems will likely go through a tough restructuring in H2, and he expects these industries to experience corporate defaults. He finishes by maintaining that his view that risks to China's growth outlook have increased.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank believes that yesterday´s FOMC will provide an upside cap to both EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

Starting with EUR/USD, he feels that 1.3400 is now perceived to be increasingly concrete, and in the near term, investors should look towards a consolidation towards the initial floor of 1.3200 before 1.3120. Moving to GBP/USD, he adds that recent upside may have been defused in the near term as markets contemplate the tapering schedule from Bernanke. He writes, “Look for cable to consolidate around the 1.5400 level in the interim and break below the 55-day MA (1.5373) opens the way to the 100-day MA (1.5323) and then 1.5220.”

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale notes that each of the three significant financial bubbles of the last 30 years has been fueled by the Fed keeping policy rates below the nominal growth rate of the economy for far too long.

When comparing Nominal GDP and The Fed Funds Rate, he sees two conflicting issues. The first is that current policy is creating market and economic distortions just as past periods did. The reaction to taper talk in EM, commodities and volatility shows where bubbles have been inflated. He writes, “This is the most powerful argument in favour of the Fed taking the first baby-steps on the path away from super-easy policy.” The second issue is that nominal GDP growth is slowing - 3.4% y/y in Q1 2013 after a post-crisis peak at 4.5% a year ago. Juckes adds that SocGen economic forecasts look for a re-acceleration from here. He writes, “The Fed may not need evidence of a return to ‘old normal’ growth or signs of a re-acceleration in CPI or wage inflation to justify tapering. But nominal growth does need to turn a bit higher.”

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that in Japan, Prime Minister Abe spoke yesterday on the consumption tax issue.

He notes that PM Abe stated that the decision to raise the consumption tax to 8.0% next year will depend upon the strength of the Japanese economy in the second quarter. Further, he adds that the latest weekly securities transactions report from the MoF released overnight also continued to reveal that the Japanese investors sold foreign bonds for the fifth consecutive week with net sales totaling around cumulative JPY3.9 trillion. He writes, “Abenomics has yet to prompt a pick up in yen weakening capital outflows from Japan.”

YoutradeFX.com (London) - GBPUSD dropped from 1.5668 to 1.5460 and drifted lower still until 1.5430 after the release of the FOMC.

GBP/USD reacting to FOMC

Last night came the release of FOMC, when the market listened to the committee’s statement. While there were no changes to the current pace of QE, a comment was made as follows: "the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall”, which sent the market in a ‘risk-off’ flurry again in broad based dollar rally. In all, the statement was a little more upbeat on the economy but showed little concern about inflation, except there being a more upbeat unemployment rate which might bring in a rate hike in a little closer. Today we have more data for the pair in the form of Retail sales for the UK (8.30GMT), which may surprise to the upside and Fisher speaking a little later on. Then, for the US, Initial Jobless Claims (12.30GMT) Markit Manufacturing (12.58 GMT), Existing Home sales Change and Philly Fed (14.00GMT).

GBP/USD treading key support

GBP/USD is treading just above key support 1.5404 EMA50 on the open of the London session, with indicators in the red. Next support is the 61.8% fib at 1.5377, and 1.5307 as 50%fib, targeting in broader terms 1.5008 and 1.4833 to the down side.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5435  |  CLOSE = 1.5447  |  HIGH = 1.5449  |   LOW = 1.5434
BID = 1.5445  |  ASK = 1.5447  |   PERCENT = -0.0777
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

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YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - DBS Group analysts comment that at long last, Bernanke has offered some numerical guidance on QE tapering.

They feel that this should go a long way towards ending the “will they, won’t they and what the heck does it depend on?” debate that has roiled markets for the past month. Further, they add that the guidance framework isn’t as transparent as it is for the short end, where Fed funds could start to rise once the unemployment rate falls below 6.5%. However, they feel that it clearly hinges on the unemployment rate, and its falling in line with the better projections Fed officials made /released yesterday. They write, “On average, the Fed now expects the unemployment rate to drop to 7.2%-7.3% by year-end, a tick or two better than what it envisioned back in March. And, “if the data are broadly consistent with this forecast, the committee anticipates that it would be appropriate to moderate the pace of purchases later this year”.” They finish by noting that Bernanke added that QE3 could be ended altogether once the unemployment rate drops to 7%, and a straight line interpolation of current Fed projections envisions a 7% unemployment rate in May 2014.

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YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Brown Brothers Harriman analysts note that the battles in Turkey and Brazil are continuing on the streets and in the FX markets.

They begin by noting that they are sticking to their view that Turkish authorities will be able to hold the weakening currency trend better than others in the EM space. They see that the policy meeting two days ago had an explicit reference to FX. Yesterday, they add that the bank cancelled its 1-week repo auction again to tighten liquidity. They feel that despite the political upheaval, TRY is one of the best performing currencies in the EM space this month.

Moving to Brazil, they writes, “Stubbornly perhaps, we still think the authorities will be able to keep the move in BRL under control for the time being. With the political situation as tense as it is now,” They feel that it would be too much to have to admit defeat on the currency front. Still, they note that the BCB and FM Mantega look to be losing the battle on BRL, with spot closing at 2.1815 yesterday despite heavy handed intervention. They write, “We don’t think it’s yet the time for the big USD/BRL move higher – if it comes, it will be after the elections. The central bank hasn't intervened in spot FX yet, which would be the next step of escalation. That they haven't done so yet suggests concern but not yet alarm on FX developments. They have the firepower and the political urgency; it’s now time to see if they have the resolve.”

YoutradeFX.com (London) - USD/JPY spiked higher after the release of the FOMC overnight, breaching major resistance levels.

USD/JPY reacts to FOMC

Last night came the release of FOMC, when the market listened to the committee’s statement. While there were no changes to the current pace of QE, a comment was made as follows: "the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall”, which sent the market in a ‘risk-off’ flurry again in broad based dollar rally. In all, the statement was a little more upbeat on the economy but showed little concern about inflation, except there being a more upbeat unemployment rate which might bring in a rate hike in a little closer. Earlier on, Japan’s leading economic index ticked up to 99.0 from a previous 97.7, offering yet more improvements in the economy.

USD/JPY piercing descending trend line

After the release of the FOMC, the USD/JPY pierced a significant level to the upside which was the trend line determining the recent bearish channel. With that area now well breached, the pair can continue higher with it now acting as a support area, 96.80 and 95.40. The upside move is targeting 98.80, for a close above 99.00 and to reach the psychological 100.00 the June highs.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 97.38  |  CLOSE = 97.38  |  HIGH = 97.39  |   LOW = 97.37
BID = 97.37  |  ASK = 97.41  |   PERCENT = 0
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Nomura economist Zhiwei Zhang notes that the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 48.3 in June from 49.2 in May, much weaker than expected (Consensus 49.1).

He adds that the new orders component fell further to 47.1 in June from 48.7 for a second sub-50 print. The production component fell to 48.8 from 50.7, the first month below 50 in eight months. Further, the new export orders component fell sharply to 44.0 from 48.9, casting more doubt over China´s export outlook. Both input and output prices remained sluggish below 50, suggesting weak production and weak demand for the manufacturing sector. he feels that the fall in the HSBC flash PMI reinforces his concerns over the downside risks to the economy.

Overall, he maintains his view that policy and liquidity will remain tight before the Q2 GDP data release on 15 July. He writes, “Headline activity indicators such as industrial production and fixed asset investment are weak but are not collapsing, while labour market conditions remain tight. We believe the government is committed to tolerating short-term pain to achieve its policy objectives – containing financial risks and secure sustainable growth in the long term.”

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank notes that USD jumped against the majors and Treasuries crashed in NY after the Fed chairman noted that “it would be appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of asset purchases “later this year”.

In addition, Ng sees that he added that if appropriate, the tapering would proceed “in measured steps through the first half of next year” while the unemployment rate is projected to have declined to 7.0% when the bond purchases expected to cease by the middle of next year. He notes that the markets reacted significantly to this new found clarity and all but ignored Bernanke’s addition that the Fed retains the flexibility to reverse or halt the tapering if necessary. Ng finishes by writing, “Meanwhile, in its FOMC statement, the Fed noted a “further” improvement in the labor market and added that downside risks to the economy and labor market as having diminished.”

In the near term, Ng feels that investors are expected to continue to digest the imminent prospects of the Fed’s tapering, with the street now looking towards the September FOMC as the watershed. He notes that the Fed chairman also took pains to differentiate between a tapering and a tightening, stating that the 6.5% unemployment rate and 2.5% inflation expectations thresholds merely provided a reference for consideration, as opposed to being actual triggers. Notably, Ng adds that in its revised quarterly forecasts, although the Fed revised lower its PCE forecasts, the unemployment rate projections were improved with the rate now estimated to fall within 6.5-6.8% in 4Q 2014 Previous: 6.7-7.0%) and ease to 5.8-6.2 in 4Q 15. He writes, “Previously, the unemployment rate had been projected to remain above 6.5% until 2015. Nonetheless, an actual shift to a tightening phase by the Fed may thus be early days yet, with 14 out of 19 board members expecting a rate hike only sometime in 2015.”

YoutradeFX.com (London) - EUR/USD plummeted over the course of an hour from 1.3418 to print a low of 1.3261 on the release of the FOMC.

EUR/USD data

Last night came the release of FOMC, when the market listened to the committee’s statement. While there were no changes to the current pace of QE, a comment was made as follows: "the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall”, which sent the market in a ‘risk-off’ flurry again in broad based dollar rally. In all, the statement was a little more upbeat on the economy but showed little concern about inflation, except there being a more upbeat unemployment rate which might bring in a rate hike in a little closer. There are a number of second trier releases on the calendar today for both the EZ and US. EZ Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jun), Markit PMI (Jun) Composite Markit Services (Jun) -7.30GMT. EZ Consumer Confidence (14.00GMT). For the US, Initial Jobless Claims (12.30GMT) Markit Manufacturing (12.58 GMT), Existing Home sales Change and Philly Fed (14.00GMT).

EUR/USD momentum to the downside

The EUR/USD has momentum indicators in the red which could extend the bearishness of the pair throughout the European session, although on the open the pair have bounced from the open by 15 pips. The move will target the 1.3200 handle and May highs and resistance. As far as areas 1.29070 are in tact, the broader trend on the daily and weekly charts is to the upside targeting 1.3600.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3261  |  CLOSE = 1.3257  |  HIGH = 1.3268  |   LOW = 1.3256
BID = 1.3257  |  ASK = 1.3259  |   PERCENT = 0.0302
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - German PPI decreased 0.3% in May, down from the 0.2% drop registered in April, according to data released today by Destatis. Analysts pointed to less decline of 0.1%.

On an annual basis PPI rose 0.2% in May, after climbing 0.1% in April and slightly below expectations of +0.3%.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Swiss trade surplus widened to CHF 2.22B in May from CHF 1.70B in April, according to data released today by the Federal Customs Administration . Analysts expected the surplus to widen to CHF 2.41B.

Swiss Exports increased to CHF 17434M in May, from CHF 17077M in April. Imports fell to CHF 15210M from CHF 15378M.

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YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/USD was unable to continue its run higher, losing 98 pips to finish at 1.3295. The sharp declines occurred directly after the release of the latest FOMC minutes, which the many analysts deemed as more hawkish than expected.

Greg Gibbs, FX Trading Strategist at RBS provided some thoughts on the release, detailing a few of the comments which may have helped create the firm bid IN the USD. “It appears that Bernanke has taken the view that the market needed a bit more guidance over the type of taper the Fed has in mind. He indicated in the press conference that if all goes to plan (famous last words) the taper would be done by mid-2014.”

In conclusion, Gibbs went on to comment the statement was viewed as hawkish, most notably with the fed lowering its unemployment outlook from 2013 through 2016. Although the fed did also lower its inflation forecast, the statement did not seem overly concerned about the recent lull in inflation readings, with the exception of Fed member Bullard's dovish dissent.

Analysts at Rabobank also agreed the Fed’s tone seemed more upbeat then previously about the economic recovery. “He (Bernanke) sent a more hawkish signal than we and most in the market had anticipated and there was quite a sharp market reaction.” In going on to discuss the market price action, Rabobank added, “US treasuries sold off on prospects for less generous liquidity from the central bank over time and on increased risks of an actual tightening in monetary policy in the next few years. The yield on 10Y US treasuries rose to 2.36% from circa 2.18.” In conclusion, Rabobank noted the sharp move higher in yields seemed to help provide a firm bid to the DXY which finished up 1.2%.

Although the FOMC meeting was the major headline of the day, Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management went on to point out a few developments in Europe which will be important to focus on in the coming days. “Eurozone PMI numbers are scheduled for release tomorrow and these are the most important pieces of economic data expected from the region this week. If the data surprises to the upside, speculation about negative interest rates will recede and the euro could recover some of its losses.”
Lien went on to conclude if the ECB does dial down its dovish tone, the EUR is likely to see better performances against commodity currencies such as the AUD and NZD, instead of the USD.

It is important to point out that the sharply lower close did create some minor technical damage on the EUR/USD daily chart. Firstly, the candle which was formed on the daily chart can be labeled a bearish engulfing candle. Since the candle formed after a few weeks worth of sharp gains, the development is more important. Secondly, price closed below the 9 dma (1.3325) for the first time since May 28th. This is a short term moving average that has acted as support/resistance in the past so will be important to monitor going forward. On a final note, the ADX (7) is now sloping slightly lower, a sign trend strength on the daily chart is deteriorating and a period of consolidation or a short term correction may be possible in the coming days. Initial resistance now sits at 1.3325 (noted above), while first support sits at 1.3240 (support on daily chart).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3254  |  CLOSE = 1.3256  |  HIGH = 1.3258  |   LOW = 1.3252
BID = 1.3255  |  ASK = 1.3257  |   PERCENT = -0.0151
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Extremely

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - USD/JPY its on track for a fourth day of gains after breaking through 97.00 in the last few minutes, reaching a new 7-day high at 97.16.

Break above 97.00 hints at further upside

The USD/JPY has had an impressive 3-day run, with today's upside resolution through 97.00, opening the doors for a further recovery towards the 20-day EMA at 97.50, a level that coincides with the 38.2% fib retrac from the 103.57-93.65 bear run. Above this resistance, technicals suggests the upward extension may seek more ambitious targets as high as 98.90/99.00 - June 3 low, June 11 high -.

More incentives needed on Abenomics, Moody's says

Earlier on the session, Moody’s made some credit outlook remarks over the Abenomics policy, saying that "More incentives are needed to boost business investment."

The FT extended on the report, noting "stronger private consumption growth is not sustainable without companies hiring more & paying higher salaries, which wont happen until business is convinced that economic policies will ‘stoke long-term growth."

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 97.05  |  CLOSE = 97.01  |  HIGH = 97.17  |   LOW = 96.92
BID = 97.01  |  ASK = 97.01  |   PERCENT = 0.04
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The USD extended gains today in the Asia-Pacific after its massive rally post-FOMC, breaking above the 81.5 level in the USD index spot (DXY), with US Treasury yields also climbing higher, seeing the 10 year levels as high as the 2.37%, near key 2.4% mark, fresh 15-month highs.

EUR/USD dipped to fresh weekly lows at 1.3255, while AUD/USD sold off to fresh near 3-year lows at 0.9231, on the back of worst HSBC flash manufacturing PMI China in last 9 months. USD/JPY finds resistance around fresh 6-day highs at 97.00 figure, while Oil plummeted below the $97 figure, posting fresh weekly lows.

Local share markets followed suit US equity markets, adding to the negative news coming out of China. Australian ASX is down -2.58%, Hang-Seng -2.6%, Kospi -1.98%, Shanghai -1.46%, and Nikkei -1.01%.

Main headlines in the Asian Session:

Flash: US not strong enough for Fed tapering off near term - Rabobank

Cyprus not seeking to renegotiate bailout

US Dollar Index climbs after FOMC Release

NZD/USD pushes lower on downbeat NZ GDP

Commodities Brief: Precious metals suffer steep declines

Japan Foreign bond investment decreases to ¥-402.5B in Jun 14 from ¥-394.4B

Flash: Risks of systemic financial crisis in China have risen - Nomura

Abe reiterates he aims to double foregin direct investment into Japan by 2020

Asian central banks reported intervention

AUD/USD resumes downtrend post HSBC China PMI

EUR/USD threatening 1.3260 support

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The lack in liquidity within China's banking system is reaching extreme levels, with the overnight repo transactions surging as high as 25%, while China weighed-average overnight repo rate also hit a decade high at 13.1%.

Zero Hedge notes: "The explosion in funding costs echoes the collapse in trust among US banks in the run-up to the Lehman bankruptcy." RBS FX Strategist Greg Gibbs reiterated today that the biggest risk factor is China's financial bubble.

Gibbs emphasizes the need to continue keeping an eye on China very closely, noting that "We must not be easily calmed if and when the PBoC inject liquidity, we must watch where term lending rates settle; if the yield curve steepens rapidly from one week out it will be a sign of banking sector distress." Growth in China will likely take its toll if banks act more cautious from now on.

What make this cash crunch in China especially peculiar "is that officials are tightening the proverbial screws tighter and longer than participants are accustomed, thus the tightness cannot be simply attributed to last week's holiday" said March Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - EUR/USD is last trading at 1.3269, near session and fresh weekly lows at 1.3261, posted on the back of FED Bernanke's comments post-FOMC, signaling the end of bond purchases to start as soon as next September. The pair is down -0.56% for the week so far.

Fresh weakness may extend

According to analyst at Windsor Brokers and contributor at YoutradeFX.com Slobodan Drvenica, EUR/USD stopped the downfall at “61.8% retracement of 1.3176/1.3414 upleg,” founding “temporary support,” Drvenica said, adding: “Fresh weakness may extend to 1.3230, 76.4% retracement and 1.3200, round figure support.”

Key technical levels

Immediate support to the downside for EUR/USD lies at mentioned weekly lows 1.3261, followed by June 11 lows at 1.3230 and June 07 lows at 1.3190. To the upside, closest resistance shows at June 13 lows 1.3277, followed by June 14 lows at 1.3293, and Monday's lows at 1.3318.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.327  |  CLOSE = 1.3271  |  HIGH = 1.3271  |   LOW = 1.3268
BID = 1.3268  |  ASK = 1.3272  |   PERCENT = -0.0075
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The NZD/JPY has continued to consolidate it a tight range around the 76.00 level for the past seven days.

NZD GDP print misses estimates

Earlier in the session, we saw the release of NZD (Q1) GDP which came in at 0.3% vs. 0.6% estimates. The print was also well below last month’s figure of 1.5%. However, thus far the print has not had a major influence on the pair. Currently, the pair is inching lower in Asia trade, down 23 pips at 75.94.

Pennant pattern forming on daily chart

The YoutradeFX.com trend index remains in strongly bearish set up on the daily chart, while the ob/os index reads neutral. From a pattern perspective, the pair appears to be forming a ‘pennant’ continuation pattern which will be confirmed with a break and close below the lower trend line support at 75.40. The pattern has a measured move target of down near 72.84.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The recent fall in USD/JPY before retesting the 97.00 handle on Wednesday was developed within the context of a corrective move, says Tim Riddell Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ.

Riddell's take is the rebound through 96.00 should now trigger a test of the 98.00-100.00 area over coming weeks. Riddell further adds that "although this will likely be seen as part of a consolidation off 103.75, a close above 101.30-60 could signal an early return to JPY weakness." A close below 94.25 would negate the bullish picture and keep downside risks to the fore, Riddell said.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The big risk factor for global markets is risk of air being let out of a financial bubble in China, reiterates Greg Gibbs, FX Strategist at RBS, after sharing his view on the Chinese cash crunch yesterday too.

Expanding on yesterday's take, Gibbs notes that the real risk is that "banks are being squeezed because investors in off balance sheet products are not rushing to roll over their investments or throw more of their savings into new ones that may be required to keep the same old borrowers afloat on their existing assets."

Gibbs also notices a further squeeze by a reversal of capital inflow from foreigners closing carry trades in CNY.

Gibbs emphasizes the need to continue keeping an eye on China very closely, noting that "We must not be easily calmed if and when the PBoC inject liquidity, we must watch where term lending rates settle; if the yield curve steepens rapidly from one week out it will be a sign of banking sector distress."

The end result on this ongoing cash crunch in China, according to Gibbs, is more cautiousness by the banks, "in which case growth in China is likely to slow further" Gibbs said.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - After the -1.35% close for US SP500 in NY following FED's tapering advance, local share markets are all in the deep red without exceptions. If not enough, worst HSBC flash manufacturing PMI figures in China in 9 months, has sent Hong-Kong's Hang-Seng leading the selling down -2.28%, while Shanghai Composite index is also down -1.13%.

The Australian ASX index has also been hit by the news falling at the moment more than -2.10%, while Korean Kospi is down -1.4%. The Nikkei index dips -1.01% at 13100 points recovering from around the 13k round session lows, after a +1.83% gain posted yesterday.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/AUD finished the day with strong gains, climbing another 203 pips to close at 1.4321 (highest daily close since March 16th, 2011).

HSBC China PMI misses, European PMI’s on Tap

In what has already been a busy economic schedule thus far in Asia trade, we will also see a number of important reports during the upcoming European session. HSBC China PMI was released earlier in the session at 1:45GMT, with the print coming in at 48.3 (a new 9 month low) vs. 49.4 forecast. Later in the day, we will see a number of PMI’s released including figures from Germany, France, Italy, and EU.

Strong technical set up continues to favor the bulls

The YoutradeFX.com trend index remains in bullish set up on the daily chart, while the ob/os index reads oversold. Price remains above both the 9 and 20dma’s, and the RSI (14) is maintaining firm ground above the 75 level. These are also bullish developments which could help keep pullbacks limited as we round out the week.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.4314  |  CLOSE = 1.4323  |  HIGH = 1.433  |   LOW = 1.4311
BID = 1.432  |  ASK = 1.4323  |   PERCENT = -0.0628
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The HSBC China PMI figure was just released, with the print coming in lighter than expected at 48.3 vs. 49.4 forecast. This is also lower than the previous month’s print which came in at 49.2

Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC discussed some details of the release: “The HSBC China Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to a nine-month low of 48.3 in June, following on the sequential reduction in both production and demand. Manufacturing sectors are weighed down by deteriorating external demand, moderating domestic demand and rising destocking pressures.” Qu then went on to conclude, “Beijing prefers to use reforms rather than stimulus to sustain growth. While reforms can boost long-term growth prospects, they will have a limited impact in the short term. As such we expect slightly weaker growth in 2Q”

The AUD/USD was initially trading near the 0.9280 level before the print, has declined another 40 pips and is hovering around 0.9240.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The AUD/USD, after an early push to correct oversold conditions, is now resuming its fall to new lower ground, lowest so far at 0.9240, following a weaker-than-expected HSBC China Manufacturing PMI.

HSBC China Manufacturing PMI disappoints

The data out of China, which comes at a time of a worrying cash crunch for the Big Panda, was 1 point below the 49.2 last reading.

Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & CoHead of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:

“The HSBC China Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to a nine-month low of 48.3 in June, following on the sequential reduction in both production and demand. Manufacturing sectors are weighed down by deteriorating external demand, moderating domestic demand and rising destocking pressures. Beijing prefers to use reforms rather than stimulus to sustain growth. While reforms can boost long-term growth prospects, they will have a limited impact in the short term. As such we expect slightly weaker growth in 2Q.”

Technical levels in the AUD/USD

The recent fall in the AUD/USD, for some YoutradeFX.com contributors like FXWW Founder Sean Lee, is largely overdone. However, it has also prompted other technical commentators like Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ, to highlight the potential for deeper declines to 0.9140-0.9200 or even 0.9050-60.

In the very short term, as pointed earlier, next strong support comes at 0.9220 - Sept 2010 high/61.8% fib from 0.81-1.10 run - , while on the upside, 0.9325/30 may see offers return, ahead of 0.94 up to 0.9430 - June lows -.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.928  |  CLOSE = 0.9257  |  HIGH = 0.9283  |   LOW = 0.9241
BID = 0.9255  |  ASK = 0.9258  |   PERCENT = 0.2485
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/USD was hit by a massive wave of selling interest on broad-based USD strength, resulting on the printing of a sizeable bearish engulfing bar on the daily chart. The candlestick took out the past 5 days of gains.

As Chris Capre, Founder at 2ndSkies, notes: "Intraday price action is bearish, so I’ll consider selling around 1.3381 which is a role reversal level that failed to hold the upside, so it should attempt to keep the bulls in check." On the downside, Capre is looking for targets at 1.3280 and 1.3200. Lastly, the Trader and Educator adds that "a more aggressive level to sell would be 1.3333."

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Broader bias is for AUD/USD weakness to resume after potential corrections have run their course, says Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research.

The long held bias that a structural top occurred at 1.1075-85 in 2011, in view of Riddell, "has been supported by recent price action, with the relatively aggressive fall through 0.9580-0.9600 to test measured move and interim retracement support at 0.9300-80 highlighting the potential for even deeper corrective declines (to 0.9140-0.9200 or even 0.9050-60)."

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - EUR/JPY is last at 127.97, practically unchanged from yesterday's Asia-Pacific open, up +1.95% for the week, despite the huge sell-off in EUR/USD following Wednesday's FOMC, as Yen had a worse run lower on the news than the Euro.

Euro stronger than Yen despite FOMC

According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at Fxstreet.com, “The hourly chart shows price recovered above both 100 and 200 SMA’s while indicators head north above their midlines, supporting further short term gains,” adding: “Still far from signaling a reversal of the ruling bearish trend, the pair is expected to continue advancing over the upcoming session, although if local share markets sunk into deep red, won’t be an easy ride.”

Key technical levels

The analyst finds support levels at: 128.10, 127.50 and 127.00, while resistance levels at: 128.80, 129.30 and 129.90

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 128.13  |  CLOSE = 128.11  |  HIGH = 128.14  |   LOW = 128.09
BID = 128.1  |  ASK = 128.12  |   PERCENT = 0.01
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The USD/JPY was able to notch impressive gains for a third day in a row, climbing 111 pips to close at 96.42.

US Dollar well bid across the board after FOMC

Marc Chandler, Head Currency Strategist at BBH provided some analysis regarding the Fed Statement release from earlier today. “The Fed statement noted that the downside risks have diminished since the fall, when it more than doubled the size of the its asset purchases. This, coupled with Bernanke's comment that tapering is possible later this year with QE ending purchases around the middle of next year, had a big impact on markets today”

Chandler went on to discuss the post FOMC price action in the foreign exchance markets. “Although the dollar had been trending lower against the major currencies since late May as the talk of tapering heated up, helped by comments by Bernanke himself, it rallied strongly against the major currencies in the aftermath of the Fed's statement and extended those gains in response to Bernanke's press conference, Chandler concluded.

Fib retracement at 97.50 remains key resistance

Val Bednarik, Chief Analyst at YoutradeFX.com provided some analysis regarding the technical developments after the recent gains from the past few days. “While current USD/JPY gains are no doubts impressive, but far from suggesting bears are done. The 23.6% retracement of the October/May run stands around 97.50, and only steady gains above the level will made bears tumble. However, the technical picture supports further gains in the pair, as price has broke below 200 SMA, while 100 one aims slowly higher well below current price. Buyers will now surge on dips towards 96.00/20 yet as long as the level holds, bulls will remain in control,” Bednarik concluded.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 96.23  |  CLOSE = 96.3  |  HIGH = 96.38  |   LOW = 96.2
BID = 96.28  |  ASK = 96.31  |   PERCENT = -0.07
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The AUD/USD is attempting a recovery in the early going of the Asian trade, having now regained the 0.93 handle following new multi-year lows at 0.9261.

HSBC China PMI eyed

The key event during Asia will be the the HSBC version of Chinese manufacturing PMI, which as pointed by FXWW Founder Sean Lee, "should also have an impact on market volatility and the AUD in particular."

AUD/USD oversold near term, value to sell at current levels?

From a technical standpoint, after the massive AUD/USD liquidation, the market may now be poised for a short term counter-trend move, especially after the pair printed its first higher lower along intraday charts before breaking through 0.93. The highest of the session so far can be found at 0.9310, where the 20-ema on the 15m chart crosses.

According to Lee, "The market is already heavily short and I’m expecting much of these losses to be reversed in coming sessions", further noting that "the longer-term charts look oversold to me and once the market realises that there is still no reason to be bullish USD, the AUD/USD should start recovering."

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9306  |  CLOSE = 0.9311  |  HIGH = 0.9314  |   LOW = 0.9304
BID = 0.931  |  ASK = 0.9312  |   PERCENT = -0.0537
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - China's central bank continues to keep the money market rates at lofty levels, and as Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH, notes, rather than inject liquidity, the PBOC drained CNY2 bln yesterday.

Furthermore, Chandler adds: "CNY30 bln 10-year bond offering saw its lowest bid-cover ratio in a year yesterday, with the 7-day repo rate, which is an indicator of interbank liquidity rose 144 bp to 8.26%, which is the highest rate since in two years."

What make this cash crunches in China especially "is that officials are tightening the proverbial screws tighter and longer than participants are accustomed, thus the tightness cannot be simply attributed to last week's holiday" Chandler said.

Chandler believes that "some near-term reprieve from the central bank is expected soon to prevent a deeper panic, with reports suggest that PBOC has asked local banks to submit orders for 14-day reverse repo agreements earlier on Wednesday."

While this measures may offer some relieve to the banking system, "it also asked banks to submit orders for a 28-day repos, which would ensure that liquidity remains tight for longer" Chandler comments.

In conclusion, Chandler thinks that the PBOC is driving home an important point: "That point is that there has been an overly rapid expansion of credit from the banks that it will not accommodate, thus wants banks to scale bank on the credit expansion plans and manage their own liquidity better."

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The unresponsive stance by the PBoC refusing to intervene on China's interbank liquidity following the latest credit developments is a sign, according to Nomura Economists Zhiwei Zhang and Wendy Chenthat the the PBoC wants to signal its policy tightening and will tolerate individual defaults to contain wider financial risks.

In view of Zhang and Chenthat, "We believe that these developments reinforce our view that risks of a systemic financial crisis have risen, but that the government will take decisive action to tighten policy and contain such risks, even if the near-term cost is slower GDP growth." In terms of the policy stance to be adopted by the PBoC going forward, the Nomura Economists see a continuation of tightening practices as well as liquidity conditions will also remain tight in June.

"This will most likely lead to higher financing costs for corporate and local governments, and will bring GDP growth down further to 7.5% in Q2 and 7.3% in H2, with our forecast is at the bottom of the consensus forecast range" Zhang and Chenthat added.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - With Aussie being the weakest currency among majors by far in last 2 trading days, AUD/CAD is last at 0.9537, off fresh almost 3-year lows at 0.9511 printed after FOMC, slightly below of previous multi-year lows from past Tuesday June 11.

In words of the Toronto based FX Research Team at TD Securities, “we think the broader trend here remains lower,” the analysts said, adding: “Trend momentum signals are bearishly aligned across a range of time frames and that limits the AUD’s ability to recover at the moment (likely to the 0.9800/40 area at most)," they concluded.

Immediate support to the downside for AUD/CAD lies at recent mentioned fresh almost 3-year lows 0.9511, followed by March 2010 highs at 0.9470, while to the upside, closest resistance shows at current levels as June 11 lows 0.9550, followed by June 10 lows at 0.9585.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9537  |  CLOSE = 0.9544  |  HIGH = 0.9548  |   LOW = 0.9535
BID = 0.9542  |  ASK = 0.9546  |   PERCENT = -0.0733
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The precious metals suffered steep declines today, with gold closing down 1.24% to finish at 1350 while silver gave back 1.62% to close at 21.25.

Oil fails to take out $100

After trading as high as 99.21 at one point in the day, the impressive five day win streak oil had been on finally came to a halt with the commodity declining 0.68% to finish at 98.15. From a technical perspective, the set up on the daily chart remains constructive with price sitting above both the 9 and 20 dma’s. The RSI (14) is consolidating just above the 60 level and maintaining the bullish zone between 40 and 80. It will be important for the oil bulls to step should oil continue to decline towards the 97.30-97.00 support zone. This was previous resistance from the downtrend line oil closed above last week.

Bearish technical set up not helping gold and silver

The technical set up on both gold and silver continued to deteriorate today, with further downside a possibility after key support levels were breached. Gold closed below an upward sloping support trend line at 1379 yesterday which confirmed a massive ‘pennant’ continuation pattern which had been forming on the daily chart since mid April. The measured move target for this pattern is all the way down near 1211, with a close back above 1379 needed to negate the development. Initial support sits at 1335 (support on daily chart), while first resistance sits at 1350 (previous support, now resistance on daily chart). As for silver, the below the bottom end of the recent trading range (located at 21.35) also sets the wheels in motion for more declines, with a short term measured move target currently sitting at 20.60.

The NZD GDP (QoQ)(Q1) figures were just released, with the print coming in lighter than expected at 0.3% vs. 0.6% estimates. This is also much lower than the previous GDP release which came in at 1.5%.


The NZD/USD is breaking sharply lower after the print, taking out the previous day low of 0.7854 and currently down 45 pips trading at 0.7845

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The NZD/USD has retained its bearish tone following a lower-than-expected NZ GDP data. The pair is currently trading at 0.7855 after losing 1.25% on Wednesday.

New Zealand GDP beats estimates

The New Zealand GDP in Q1 came at 0.3% vs 0.6% expected and 1.5% prior. Yearly, the GDP stood at 2.4% vs 2.5% expected and +3.0% prior.

NZD/USD key technical levels

Following the sharp rebound off 0.7765 lows on June 11, selling interest above 0.81 late last week coupled with further liquidation post Bernanke speech, has taken the pair towards 0.7860 support - June 12 low -, where bids emerged.

A break lower would expose 0.7830 - June 10 low - ahead of 0.7765 yearly low. On the upside, any recovery has the potential to recover some decent ground after the big red candle printed on the H1, which suggests the order board has been cleaned up. If/when confronted with 0.7960, any further gain should be much tougher to come by.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.7889  |  CLOSE = 0.7849  |  HIGH = 0.7892  |   LOW = 0.7846
BID = 0.7849  |  ASK = 0.7852  |   PERCENT = 0.5096
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - After trading as high as 91.17 earlier in the session, the AUD/JPY closed the session sharply lower down 163 pips at 89.54.

HSBC China PMI on tap

The main economic event of the coming Asia session will be HSBC China PMI due out at 1:45GMT. According to analysts at NAB Global, “The other key event this morning should be the China HSBC ‘flash’ manufacturing PMI, last at 49.2 and expected to show a small rise to 49.4. Anything worse than this risks fresh downward pressure on the AUD and upward pressure on USD/Asia FX rates in general.”


Technical set up keeps bearish tilt

The YoutradeFX.com trend index remains slightly bearish on the daily chart, while the ob/os index remains neutral. Price remains below both the 9 and 20dma’s, and the RSI (14) is consolidating below 30 and maintaining the bearish zone between 20 and 60. Both of these developments may help limit advances as we progress through the end of the week. Initial resistance now sits at 90.00 (previous support, now resistance), followed by 90.80 (the 9dma). Initial support sits at 89.23 (low of previous day).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 89.58  |  CLOSE = 89.61  |  HIGH = 89.65  |   LOW = 89.53
BID = 89.59  |  ASK = 89.63  |   PERCENT = -0.04
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Given the sharp slide in AUD/USD, NAB has put its forecasts under review for further downgrade. The bank had expected the pair to stay around 0.93 by year-end, however, "the range-break higher in US yields and clear breakdown through 0.9400, an accelerated move towards the 0.90 areas was eminently possible" NAB notes. The bank does not rule out a potential recovery near term though, as "exporter buying and institutional hedging is likely to provide significant support and at least slow downside progress" NAB added.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Given today was a day of a massive rally in the USD across the board, all that GBP lost against the USD, the Yen also lost it, so the cross barely moved, trading last at 149.43, just as it was doing yesterday during the Asia-Pacific open.

GBP/JPY jumped though to fresh weekly highs at 150.31 after FOMC, but it soon eased to lows at 148.55, to stabilize last around the 149.39, where it has been since past Monday June 11. According to the FXMarketAlerts Team the 147 level is “shaping to be a key level near term,” with a bearish bias in case it breaks below it, the team said.

Immediate support to the downside for GBP/JPY lies at yesterday's lows 148.28, followed by June 14 lows at 147.39, and June 13 lows at 147.09. To the upside, closest resistance shows at Tuesday's highs 149.71, followed by NY weekly highs at 150.34, and June 13 highs at 150.66.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 149.45  |  CLOSE = 149.54  |  HIGH = 149.55  |   LOW = 149.43
BID = 149.53  |  ASK = 149.55  |   PERCENT = -0.06
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The US Dollar Index finished the day with strong gains, getting a boost after the conclusion of the FOMC Meeting and closing up 61 pips 81.47.

FOMC release adds to confusion of Fed ‘tapering’ timeline

Analysts at NAB Global shared some thoughts on the FOMC release, detailing a few of the key statements which may provide clues on the Fed’s timeline for a change in current policy. “Despite an FOMC statement that made no direct reference to scaling back on the current pace of Fed balance sheet expansion, the revisions to the FOMC’s central tendency forecast for the unemployment rate put markets on notice for some guidance from the Fed Chairman as to when the process of ‘tapering’ could begin.”

In conclusion, NAB went on to comment, “Tapering is not a word Bernanke chose to use, but in the press conference he made abundantly clear that based on the latest FOMC forecast, the Fed expected to start scaling back on its monthly bond purchases before the end of the year, and to cease net new bond buying completely by the middle of 2014.”

DXY technical set up improves, but the bulls still have to work to do

From a technical perspective, the sharp move higher today was impressive but the DXY bulls still have some work to do. The first development to point out is the close above the 9dma (81.22), which will now act as support (this is the first close above since May 29th). However, the RSI (14) is still below 40 and is maintaining the bearish zone between 20 and 60. Initial resistance now sits at 81.66 (high of day), followed by 82.00 (previous support, now resistance). Initial support sits at 81.22 (noted above), followed by 80.70 (support on daily chart).

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Short-term price action in USD/CAD suggests consolidation near term, says Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TDS.

Osborne continues to give a positive read in the USD/CAD from a broader context though, anticipating that "the corrective move lower from the 1.0420 area may be complete following the rebound in the market from the low 1.01 area."

Amid this constructive bullish scenario, Osborne thinks "it should help limit losses on the one hand but leave gains a little harder to come by on the other—unless or until USD/CAD can make more progress above the 1.0250/80 region."

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - About 1 hour away from NZ GDP figures are out at 22:45 GMT, the Kiwi dollar is last trading at 0.7875, off fresh weekly and 6-day lows at 0.7854, printed on the back of a massive rally in the USD across the board, after earlier on FOMC.

USD higher on Bernanke's words

The so awaited “tapering” warning was clearly sent by FED Chairman Ben Bernanke, although he also stated that “purchases will not be finished by mid next year,” in response to questions of how radical the move will be, meaning it will be made in a moderate and progressive fashion, always dependant on how the economy, and particularly the US job market, will develop.

Key technical levels

Immediate support to the downside for NZD/USD lies at mentioned fresh 6-day lows 0.7854, followed by June 28 2012 lows at 0.7835, and July 25 2012 lows at 0.7805. To the upside, closest resistance shows at past Thursday's lows 0.7893, followed by June 10 highs at 0.7926, and June 18 lows at 0.7946.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.7882  |  CLOSE = 0.7882  |  HIGH = 0.7885  |   LOW = 0.7881
BID = 0.788  |  ASK = 0.7887  |   PERCENT = 0
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - After Bernanke met with the press following the FOMC and exposed his views on monetary policy, Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist at Rabobank, sees that on balance, economic data is not strong enough to warrant tapering off QE3 in the near term.

Marey only expects the economy to re-accelerate in Q4 after the fiscal landscape has cleared up, "an occurrence that should induce the Fed to slow down its asset purchases at the turn of the year and terminate QE3 altogether in 2014" Marey notes.

The ongong volatility in longer-term US treasury yields should stay, Marey believes, based on the fact that "amplified uncertainty caused by FOMC divergence and mixed economic data is likely to continue in the coming months" the Strategist says.

With regards to the 0.00-0.25% target zone for the federal funds rate, "is expected to remain in place well into 2015, upward pressure on short-term rates should be much smaller" Marey concludes.

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - The market was waiting the Fed economic projections and the Ben Bernanke speech and they delivered. After the Chairman press release, market assumed that the fed is ready to start tapering and the Dollar flied against its major competitors.

The EUR/USD declined from the 1.3400 to closed the day below the 1.3300. The GBP/USD collapsed around 200 pips to test the 1.5450 level. The AUD/USD dropped hard to 2 ½ - yr low at 0.9280 and the USD/JPY advanced to reach 79.00 levels.

Main headlines in the American session:

The Fed leaves its interest rate unchanged at 0.0-0.25%

Bernanke talks exit strategy

Bernanke: The Fed is ready to start tapering

King: UK needs more BoE stimulus as recovery not assured

Wall Street collapses as Bernanke signals exit strategy

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - GBP/USD has suffered a major decline post Bernanke's speech, extending its yesterday's sell-off from 1.57 into fresh weekly low terrain right below 1.55. Today's 1% depreciation in the Sterling represents its lowest level in 2 weeks.

Bears rule the roost again

The sustained weakness below 1.5570, with daily close now confirmed below 1.55, hints at a critical transition from what has been a very fast 700+ pips move off 1.5035 lows to now expect a bearish biased to be established. Sellers will likely be on the lookout to select the right value areas to reinstate short positions.

In-House Chief Analyst sees further downside

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at YoutradeFX.com, also notes the 4 hours chart building up a bearish scenario, as pointed above, spotting key support now around 1.5420, 200 EMA 4-h chart. Sustained weakness below the latter number through a 1-hour candle opening bellow, "should point for a downward continuation towards 1.5250 by the end of the week" Bednarik said.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5479  |  CLOSE = 1.5485  |  HIGH = 1.5488  |   LOW = 1.5479
BID = 1.5484  |  ASK = 1.5489  |   PERCENT = -0.0387
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Oversold

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Today, Bernanke provided additional clues about the possible timing of the Fed's QE3 tapering, saying that tapering is likely to begin “later this year” and end around mid-2014.

In view of Societe General economists, "We maintain our call for a September tapering. Prior to today’s meeting, we had assumed that asset purchases would come to a full stop by the January meeting. While Bernanke’s guidance suggested that buying will continue until mid-2014, our own forecast trajectory hits the 7% level of unemployment a bit earlier, before the end of Q1."

Societe Generale foresees now a shorter tapering cycle than earlier expected. Afterwards, a long pause in Fed policy should be seen, the bank's Economists said.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The AUD/USD continues to drop like a rock post Bernanke speech, breaking through June 11 recent lows at 0.9327 like a knife through hot butter. The pair hit its lowest at 0.9288, level not seen since Sept 2010.

Structural change from a weekly chart

The break below 0.9327, last swing low, will now allow technical commentators to flood the market with new downgrades for the fate of the AUD/USD, as former support at 0.9370 - last Sept 2009/early 2010 highs/Sept 2011 lows - was the last ditch attempt buyer had to produce a meaningful rebound before a new bearish landscape opens up.

Key technicals levels

The technical breakout confirms on a daily close below 0.9370. If materialized, all indications are pointing so, AUD/USD sees the next support coming at 0.9220 - Sept 2010 high/61.8% fib from 0.81-1.10 run - , with a break lower bringing into focus the round number 0.90. On the upside, 0.9325/30 may offer minor resistance, followed by 0.94 up to 0.9430 - June lows -.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9305  |  CLOSE = 0.9295  |  HIGH = 0.9307  |   LOW = 0.9293
BID = 0.9295  |  ASK = 0.9297  |   PERCENT = 0.1076
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Extremely

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - The US stocks market has closed significantly lower on Wednesday as indexes reacted to the downside following the Ben Bernanke post interest rate decision.

Ben Bernanke commented that the fed is ready to cut bond buying program and even leave the door opened to do it as soon as this year.

The Dow Jones collapsed 206.04 points or 1.35% to end the day at 15,112.19. The S&P 500 declined 22.88 points or 1.39% to 1,628.93 and the Nasdaq Composite eased 38.98 points or 1.12% to 3,443.20.

YoutradeFX.com (Buenos Aires) – It does not matter FED economic projections showed a pretty modest improvement and that the Central Bank decided to kept its policy unchanged. Dollar soared across the board with the FOMC statement, only to accelerate when Bernanke began talking about QE exit strategy. The USD/JPY hit a daily high of 96.92, flirting with key 97.00 figure after pulling back some. As market digests the latest news, majors enter a consolidative stage, although dollar remains strong across the board.

No trend change yet

Despite latest run, Valeria Bednarik, Fxstreet.com chief analyst says: “current USD/JPY gains are no doubts impressive, but far from suggesting bears are done. The 23.6% retracement of the October/May run stands around 97.50, and only steady gains above the level will made bears tumble.” As for the short term, she sees strong supports for upcoming hours at 97.00 and mentioned 97.50, while according to her view, supports now stand at 96.60, 96.15 and finally 95.80 price zone.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 96.72  |  CLOSE = 96.72  |  HIGH = 96.77  |   LOW = 96.7
BID = 96.71  |  ASK = 96.75  |   PERCENT = 0
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - The Dollar bullishness is rampant across the market and against its Canadian counterpart, the Greenback has jumped 115 pips following the Bernanke's statement on Fed exit strategy.

After rallying 115 pips from 1.0170, the USD/CAD broke 1.0240 to trade at highs since June 6 at 1.0285 where the pair has found resistance. Currently it's pricing at 1.0265, 0.55% positive on the day. Short term perspective is slightly bullish according to the YoutradeFX.com trend index in the 15-minute chart.

Indicators such as MACD, CCI and Momentum are pointing to the north while the Stochastic is neutral in the same timeframe.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.0273  |  CLOSE = 1.0268  |  HIGH = 1.0277  |   LOW = 1.0265
BID = 1.0268  |  ASK = 1.0269  |   PERCENT = 0.0487
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Overbought

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Following the Fed decision to hold rates and the optimistic FOMC economic projections, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that the Fed are ready to start tapering QE.

Bernanke began by highlighting the optimistic growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014, making reference to the hotly anticipated exit strategy, commenting, on “setting fed funds target over medium term and continuing purchases of MBS”. Further, he added that an improvement in the unemployment rate to 6.5% should not be considered to be a trigger for an immediate rate hike. He added that he is personally expecting this to occur during 2015.

On the subject of tapering QE, Bernanke commented that the FOMC may look to moderate the pace of asset purchases with 2013, commenting, “(It) Would not be shrinking the balance sheet, just slowing the pace of growth." In response to previous indications by other FOMC members that the Fed could even accelerate purchases, Bernanke indicated that the probability is for purchases to decline. His overall messages is that if the US economic recovery continues, the Fed will look to taper within 2013 with a fall to 7% in unemployment now the target.

Additionally, he added that the FOMC believes that there will be considerable time difference between the tapering of QE funds and rate hikes, implying that the FOMC are clearly focused on an exit strategy, but stability is a priority over everything. Looking to inflation he commented that anticipates it heading towards the 2% objective over time.

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is accelerating its decline post-FOMC statement, quickly leaving behind the 1.3300 support, and posting fresh multi-day lows around 1.3280.

EUR/USD dragged by FOMC optimism

The statement by Chairman Bernanke kept the upbeat tone, stating that the Fed would be ready to scale back its monthly purchases if the US data accompanies, although he stressed that this not necessarily means a rate hike, just a change in the pace of the bond buying. Bernanke also commented on the progress of the housing sector, highlighting its relevance for the US economic growth.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is losing 0.82% at 1.3281 and a breakdown of 1.3202 (mid April high) would expose 1.3177 (low Jun.10). On the flip side, resistance levels line up at 1.3404 (high Jan.14) ahead of 1.3434 (high Feb.20).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3293  |  CLOSE = 1.3282  |  HIGH = 1.3298  |   LOW = 1.3278
BID = 1.3281  |  ASK = 1.3283  |   PERCENT = 0.0828
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

The Aussie is collapsing against the Greenback following the FOMC unchanged decision and the new Federal Reserve projections. The AUD/USD has fallen 120 pips following the announcement.

Alongside the decision to hold interest rates at their record lows, the Fed also have opted to maintain the $85bln monthly pace of asset purchases. They believe that downside risks for the US economy have diminished since last Autumn and they see a developing upside ahead for the employment picture

AUD/USD traded at sub 0.9400 levels

The AUD/USD collapsed around 120 pips from 0.9560 to break down the 0.9400 area and test the lows since June 11 at 0.9385. Currently the pair is trading around 0.9400, 0.85% down on the day. Short term perspective is slightly bearish according to the YoutradeFX.com trend index in the 15-minute chart.

Indicators such as MACD, CCI and Momentum are pointing to the south while the Stochastic is neutral in the 15-minute chart too.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9399  |  CLOSE = 0.9407  |  HIGH = 0.942  |   LOW = 0.9395
BID = 0.9408  |  ASK = 0.9411  |   PERCENT = -0.085
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 1  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Following the US Federal Reserve decision to hold interest rates at 0.25%, the FOMC have issued their economic projections.

Alongside the decision to hold interest rates at their record lows, the Fed also have opted to maintain the $85bln monthly pace of asset purchases. They believe that downside risks for the US economy have diminished since last Autumn and they see a developing upside ahead for the employment picture. Looking forward, they are anticipating the unemployment rate to be between 6.5%-6.8% by the end of 2014, and 5.8%-6.2% by 2015, adding the labor market is showing signs of further improvement. With regard to when they can foresee the first rate rise, they comment that 15 out of 19 FOMC officials are projecting in 2014. In contrast, previous majority expectations had been for rates to stay low through to mid 2015.

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The USD is pushing the pair to session highs in the boundaries of 96.00 the figure after the FOMC left its monetary policy unchanged.

The Fed’s projections were slightly better, enough to spark hopes amongst investors of a taper in the September meeting. In the meantime, US yields are trading higher and the dollar is accelerating its upside.

At the moment the pair is up 0.89% at 96.14 with the next resistance at 96.09 (high Jun.13). On the flip side, support levels align at 94.43 (low Jun.18) ahead of 94.08 (low Jun.17).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 95.94  |  CLOSE = 96.14  |  HIGH = 96.3  |   LOW = 95.93
BID = 96.12  |  ASK = 96.14  |   PERCENT = -0.21
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - The Dollar is rallying following the Federal Reserve's unchanged decision with the GBP/USD is collapsing around 60 pips to test the 1.5600 as initial reaction to the data.

After the 2-days meeting, the Federal Reserve has decide to leave unchanged its funds rate at 0.0-0.25% as expected. The Fed has keep its interest rate at those levels since December 2008.

The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.5600, 0.25% negative on the day. Short term perspective is slightly bearish according to the YoutradeFX.com trend index in the 15-minute chart. Indicators such as CCI and Momentum are bearish while the Stochastic and the MACD are neutrals.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5667  |  CLOSE = 1.5592  |  HIGH = 1.5668  |   LOW = 1.5582
BID = 1.5592  |  ASK = 1.5594  |   PERCENT = 0.481
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - Having broadly traded within a close to 70 pip range today, GBP/USD has following the US Federal Reserve decision to hold interest rates.

GBP/USD pushes lower as Fed holds rates

The decision to hold US interest rates at 0.25% was taken amidst a growing sense of anticipation that the Fed will eventually look to start tapering its accommodative monetary policy. GBP/USD’s immediate reaction has been to see spot decline over 70 pips to 1.5604, where the daily low had previously stood. Spot has continued to push further, making a low at 1.5594, before gently retracing higher to where it is currently trading at 1.5606.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5667  |  CLOSE = 1.5588  |  HIGH = 1.5668  |   LOW = 1.5582
BID = 1.5583  |  ASK = 1.5586  |   PERCENT = 0.5068
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The shared currency dips to fresh lows in the vicinity of 1.3350 after the Fed left its monetary policy on hold.

The FOMC left the benchmark rate intact at 0.25%, broadly in line with expectations and the pace of the bond buying at $85 billion/month. Members also stated that the labour market is improving and the economy is growing at a moderate pace.

At the moment the pair is down 0.24% at 1.3359 and a break above 1.3411 (high Jun.19) would target 1.3416 (high Jun.18) en route to 1.3456 (high Feb.14). On the downside, support levels align at 1.3338 (hourly low Jun.18) ahead of 1.3326 (MA10d) and finally 1.3325 (low Jun.18).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3408  |  CLOSE = 1.3358  |  HIGH = 1.3418  |   LOW = 1.3353
BID = 1.3358  |  ASK = 1.336  |   PERCENT = 0.3743
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (San Francisco) - After the 2-days meeting, the Federal Reserve has decide to leave unchanged its funds rate at 0.0-0.25% as expected. The Fed has keep its interest rate at those levels since December 2008.

Additional comments and hints will be provided by the Fed's Chairman ben Bernanke in a press conference at 18:30 GMT, 2:30 PM EST.

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's commodity-based currencies and outline the technical positions.

In terms of the AUD/USD, “the recent sell-off has put our focus on the momentum tools to cross lower to indicate resumption of downside. Support is at 0.9416 ahead of 0.9326. Resistance is at 0.9574, suggesting a bearish outlook.” In addition, in looking at the USD/CAD, the recent upside should be limited and there is a strong resistance at 1.0245. Our focus is on the key support at 1.0120 ahead of 1.0027.

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The USD/CAD is now gathering some traction after bottoming out around 1.0180, although the bullish attempts seem to be contained by 1.0200 the figure so far.

USD/CAD looking to break the recent congestion

The pair has been gyrating around 1.0200 since early June, apparently unable to find the proper catalyst to break the current pattern either way. “Trend momentum is not helping one way or the other at this point as readings on the short and medium-term studies are neutral. That should help limit losses on the one hand but leave gains a little harder to come by on the other—unless or until USD/CAD can make more progress above the 1.0250/80 region”, commented G.Moore and S.Osborne, FX Strategists at TD Securities.

USD/CAD critical levels

The pair is now retreating 0.22% at 1.0191 with the next support at 1.0177 (MA200h) followed by 1.0150 (low Jun.17) and finally 1.0137 (low Jun.14). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.0239 (high Jun.19) would open the door to 1.0245 (38.2% of 1.0421-1.0137) and then 1.0288 (high Jun.7).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.0191  |  CLOSE = 1.0195  |  HIGH = 1.0196  |   LOW = 1.0188
BID = 1.0194  |  ASK = 1.0195  |   PERCENT = -0.0392
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - Commodities trading resembled a dial-tone in recent minutes during US trading, with all eyes on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke within the hour.

Gold trading at key resistance

Gold prices continued to tread near its intraday highs, held in check by the 1373 key upside resistance Wednesday. With the FOMC looming shortly, the price has traded sideways, with investors anxiously awaiting clues regarding the QE program in the United States. In these moments, gold has settled at USD $1373.82 per oz. Wednesday.

Silver cannot overtake key upside

The white metal has also been in a narrow consolidation throughout the morning of US trading Wednesday, clearly pausing ahead of the Fed. The 22.10 upside target remains intact, while silver spot prices have eased off of earlier highs in the 21.79 region. At the current levels, the price of silver has now moved to USD $21.71 per oz. during US trading.

WTI crude pauses ahead of FOMC

WTI Crude Oil extended its upside bias, testing the 127.1% Fibonacci extension for the latest bearish wave at 99.00. Given the high volatility that is expected during today’s FOMC policy decision, a neutral stance is recommended ahead of the meeting today. At the time of writing, WTI crude prices have settled in the region of USD $98.35/bbl during US trading.

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY has barely moved along the day as investors refrain from taking positions ahead of the Federal Reserve announcement.

What to expect after Fed

While most analysts don't expect the Fed to taper its stimulus program quite yet, they agree Bernanke language will be crucial for market reaction. "FED could rock the pair over 100 pips in a blink: risk remains way too high ahead of the news, particularly in this pair", says Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at YoutradeFX.com. "Above 95.80, yesterday's high, the pair has scope to extend its advance up to 96.20/30 in the short term".

At time of writing, USD/JPY is trading virtually unchanged on the day at the 95.15 zone, having briefly dropped below 95.00 during the European session.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 95.18  |  CLOSE = 95.14  |  HIGH = 95.26  |   LOW = 95.12
BID = 95.13  |  ASK = 95.15  |   PERCENT = 0.04
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - According to the RBS Research Team, “We look for Bernanke to advance the conversation on tapering, but not any further than the market already has.”

Moreover, “we recommend scaling in against 2.30% (with ammo for a move to 2.40% - your closing stop) – don't chase lower yields on a snap rally. Past today, we see a 2.06-2.30% range, with 2%-2.40% at the wides. Going forward markets will heavily examine data in order to adjust pricing and the timing of tapering.” the team adds. Our flows were Asian banks selling 30-years and CB buying 7-years. Total Treasury inter-dealer broker volume was 58% of the 10-day average this morning.

YoutradeFX.com (New york) - According to the NAB Research Team, “We’d suggest that the prevailing view going into Wednesday's FOMC statement and press conference is that given a generally respectable but hardly stellar set of incoming economic data since the April FOMC meeting, Mr. Bernanke is not going to push back hard against his May 20th comments.”

Bernanke to weigh in on incoming news

Bernanke is nevertheless likely to stress that any such move still remain dependent on the incoming economic news, and is unlikely to give an expected date at which the process may commence (unless of course, a decision is made today to start scaling back QE – unlikely in our view, since that would undoubtedly amount to a fresh shock for markets).

At the same time, Bernanke looks slated to suggest that starting ‘tapering’ doesn't mean it won’t stop (or couldn’t even be reversed), and too that starting to wind down its bond purchase program still means that policy is being eased not tightened and that even ending QE is in no way an indication that rates could start to be raised anytime soon. He may in this respect indicate that the Fed’s new economic projections remain consistent with rates being on hold at least through late 2014.

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The US Dollar index, which gauges the greenback against its major rivals, is now trading on the back foot, posting marginal losses around 80.70 ahead of the Fed meeting.

Much has been said about the likeliness of the Fed scaling back its monthly purchases of assets, but Jane Foley, Strategist at Rabobank, comments on the opposite side: “On the assumption that the Fed leaves QE ‘untapered’ today, risk appetite is likely to find a support. However, now that the market knows that the Fed is planning a withdrawal at some point in the months ahead, it would seem unlikely that confidence will return to the exuberance that was witnessed in the first 5 ½ months of this year”.

At the moment the index is down 0.04% at 80.71 with the next support at 80.50, 80.20 and 80.00. Resistance levels align at 81.00, 81.30 and 81.60.

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - GBP/USD has settled in an even tighter range within the last hours as conditions get thinner and thinner ahead of the Fed decision.

GBP/USD failed to overcome the 1.5675 area, where the 100-hour SMA acted as dynamic resistance and pulled back, although with 1.5645 containing the downside, the pair was confined to a phase of consolidation.

GBP/USD holds the soft tone

At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at the 1.5650 zone, still up 0.1% on the day. According to Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at YoutradeFX.com, technical indicators remain below their midlines in 4-hour chart, "suggesting only a strong acceleration above 1.5680 will favor a recovery in the pair".

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5656  |  CLOSE = 1.5652  |  HIGH = 1.5656  |   LOW = 1.5649
BID = 1.5651  |  ASK = 1.5653  |   PERCENT = 0.0256
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - According to Lee McDarby, Corporate Treasury at Investec, “The market is in a holding pattern as it eagerly awaits the Fed’s monetary policy announcement later tonight at 18:00 GMT, alongside its economic forecasts, where no change is expected on the Federal funds target rate of 0.00 - 0.25%.

“The main focus will be on QE3 and the Fed’s Chairman’s intentions to ‘taper’ which will be revealed in the accompanying press conference. We don’t expect any tapering to be announced tonight with purchases set to continue at the $85bn/month pace.” he adds.

Whilst the market will be looking for clues in Bernanke’s statement to give a concrete steer on the timing and scale of the taper, he may point to a substantial jobs market improvement as a precursor to any action. Our own view (close to broad expectations) is the 18 September Fed meeting is most likely, but with only a modest taper likely at that time and with purchases continuing into 2014. Bernanke will also have to answer questions relating to President Obama’s recent TV comments on Bernanke’s tenure at the Fed, which will provide another dimension to the press conference adding a further element of market uncertainty over the long-term Fed policy stance.

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD continues to flirt with 1.3400 the figure on Wednesday, as markets get closer to the FOMC statement and the subsequent press conference by Chief Bernanke.

EUR/USD vs. B.Bernanke

According to the research team at BBH, the FOMC statement would be the least relevant release, as the evaluation of the economy would remain pretty much the same. “We expect the Chairman to help investors differentiate between tapering and tightening and to try to drive home the point that current conditions are not sufficient to slow down the long-term asset purchases ($85 bln a month)… The Fed exited QE1 and QE2 too early and needs to avoid making the same mistake for a third time”, concluded the analysts.

EUR/USD key levels

At the moment the pair is up 0.08% at 1.3403 and a break above 1.3411 (high Jun.19) would target 1.3416 (high Jun.18) en route to 1.3456 (high Feb.14). On the downside, support levels align at 1.3338 (hourly low Jun.18) ahead of 1.3326 (MA10d) and finally 1.3325 (low Jun.18).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3407  |  CLOSE = 1.3405  |  HIGH = 1.3409  |   LOW = 1.34
BID = 1.3405  |  ASK = 1.3406  |   PERCENT = 0.0149
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's majors and outline the technical positions.

Beginning with the USD/JPY, “The weakness since mid-May is approaching the significant support at 93.57. A closing break below this would be further negative opening 90.43 – resistance is at 96.10, suggesting a bearish intraday outlook.”

As for the GBP/USD, as the bull trend persists any downside will be limited with a strong support at 1.5468. Broader focus is on the strong resistance at 1.5789; a closing break above this would be further positive opening 1.5879. Finally, regarding the USD/CHF, the pair is consolidating to unwind the sharp overextended downside conditions with resistance at 0.9309. Support is at 0.9130 ahead of 0.9022.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “Ahead of the meeting later today, if the Fed does hint towards imminent tapering then they will stress that fed funds rate hikes are still a long way off and well into 2015 under the FOMC's projections.”

Regarding the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) which are scheduled to be released with today's policy statement, Deutsche Bank's Joe Lavorgna thinks that the Fed's forecast ranges for real GDP growth (2.3%-2.8%) and unemployment (7.3%-7.5%) remain tenable, and thus are not likely to change meaningfully. Changes may occur in inflation forecasts given recent softening inflation indicators.

In the last SEP, the year-end core inflation range was 1.5%-1.6% - currently, the core PCE deflator is running at 1.1%. As a result, our US economists would not be surprised to see the lower end of policymakers' 2013 core inflation range be reduced by 20-30 basis points. “We suspect Bernanke's thoughts regarding the recent market volatility will also be closely watched and keenly interpreted. Finally, there will probably be some questioning around the Chairman's plans when his tenure ends in January 2014.” they add.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The GBP/JPY technical cross bottomed out at the 148.28 region earlier today, only to recover steadfastly during US trading Wednesday.

GBP/JPY in for a bullish rebound

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The GBP/JPY pair recorded a low just above 148.15-support level, to retrace its losses. We remain on the bullish side of the trade, anticipating a bullish rebound so long as 149.90-resistance area is holding.”

Following the recent recovery, the GBP/JPY foreign exchange rate is still residing in negative territory at 148.81, still off -0.20% in these moments. The Mataf.net analyst team has identified supports at 148.66, then 148.12, and finally 147.65

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 148.87  |  CLOSE = 148.81  |  HIGH = 148.91  |   LOW = 148.75
BID = 148.81  |  ASK = 148.82  |   PERCENT = 0.04
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Brown Brother Harriman Global Currency Strategy Team say that while all eyes are on the Federal Reserve today as the market awaits clues into when the central bank will begin slowing its liquidity provisions, China's central bank continues its own snugging operation, keeping the money market rates at lofty levels.

They said that rather than inject liquidity into the money markets, as the banks were clamouring for, the PBOC drained CNY2 bln yesterday, which continued the cash crunch and ensured that today's 10-year bond auction would see lukewarm demand. Sure enough, as they note, today's CNY30 bln 10-year bond offering saw its lowest bid-cover ratio in a year while the 7-day repo rate, which is an indicator of interbank liquidity rose 144 bp today to 8.26%, which is the highest rate since in two years.

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD dipped below the 1.0200 mark at the beginning of the New York session after data showed Canadian wholesales grew in line with expectations in April.

USD/CAD resumes the decline

Despite USD/CAD attempted to recover, it failed to regain the 1.0200 level and came under renewed pressure, resuming the downside to a new low of 1.0180. At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at the 1.0185 area, where it records a 0.3% loss.

In terms of technical levels, immediate supports are seen at 1.0150 (Jun 17 low) and 1.0135 (Jun 14 low), while resistances are seen at 1.0237 (daily high) and 1.0265 (20-day SMA).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.0186  |  CLOSE = 1.019  |  HIGH = 1.019  |   LOW = 1.0182
BID = 1.0185  |  ASK = 1.019  |   PERCENT = -0.0393
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's EUR crosses and note that there is a generally neutral-trending bias ahead.

“The EUR/USD posted a new high and is approaching the resistance at 1.3520 ahead of 1.3711 – support is at 1.3319, indicating a bullish outlook.” the analysts note. In terms of the EUR/CHF, the sharp sell-off is held by the support at 1.2267. A closing break would trigger deeper sell-off to1.2196. Upside should be limited with strong resistance at 1.2386.

Moving to the EUR/GBP, a sharp advance seen yesterday is approaching the critical resistance at 0.8607. A closing break above this would be positive opening 0.8656, while support is at 0.8470. Finally, concerning the EUR/JPY, the cross is consolidating ahead of the strong support at 124.72; a closing break below this would be further negative opening 119.11. Upside should be limited with resistance at 128.34.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The AUD/USD foreign exchange rate has rebounded Wednesday, having managed to sustain some manner of recovery attempt during US trading ahead of the FOMC.

AUD/USD stochastic remains negative

According to the Technical Analyst team at ICN.com, “The AUD/USD's downtrend has stopped without breaking Linear Regression Indicator 34 – a positive event on intraday basis. Simultaneously however, the pair resides below 0.9535 and the stochastic maintains its negative momentum therefore, we prefer to maintain neutrality in the US Session.”

Following a stabilization during US trading, the AUD/USD has pared its earlier losses to trade at to 0.9524, or a robust +0.38% above its opening at the time of writing. “The recent sell-off has put our focus on the momentum tools to cross lower to indicate resumption of downside. Support is at 0.9416 ahead of 0.9326. Resistance is at 0.9574, suggesting a bearish outlook.” notes Geoffrey Yu, a Research Analyst at UBS.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.951  |  CLOSE = 0.9523  |  HIGH = 0.9528  |   LOW = 0.9507
BID = 0.9523  |  ASK = 0.9525  |   PERCENT = -0.1365
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (London) - EUR/GBP had spiked up higher towards the top of the daily cloud (0.8600) but falling short at 0.8573 after the release of the BoE minutes this morning.

The vote was unanimous with regards to rates being left on hold, 9- 0. However, there was a 6-3 split with regards to their bond purchasing programme and QE, essentially echoing previous months. Research teams at TD securitres explain that the next meeting becomes much more interesting as the new BoE Governor Carney takes the helm. After reaching above 1.5700 at the start of the week, GBPUSD has topped out for the time being.


EUR/GBP dependent on USD outcome

A stronger USD today would reinforce the turn, and an extension lower targets 1.55 in the coming week. This in turn would of course see EUR/GBP to the top of the cloud again – if breached on a close then the April highs would be the next objective. Daily momentum is leaning to the upside and supported by EMA50 at 0.8545 with key support coming in from SMA200 at 0.8514.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.8556  |  CLOSE = 0.8553  |  HIGH = 0.8558  |   LOW = 0.8551
BID = 0.8552  |  ASK = 0.8553  |   PERCENT = 0.0351
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The US stock market tepidly opened to the downside, with the FOMC on tap later this afternoon at 18:30 GMT.

Beginning with the indices and composites, the NASDAQ fell -0.10% as it settles in region of 3478.65, down -3.40 points in these moments. In addition, the S&P 500 is trading in positive territory, operating at 1648.35, descending -3.29 points or -0.20% at the time of writing. Finally, the Dow Jones has moved higher at the opening, trading in the zone of 15282.41, presently -0.18% after a movement of -35.82 points.

Sectors are mostly lower at the opening, however the Telecommunications and Energy sectors have distinguished themselves as the losers thus far, falling -0.62% and -0.24% respectively. Moreover, the price of gold has settled at $1374.58 per oz., while silver is now negotiating a spot price of $21.73 per oz.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - Strategists at Nomura, Jens Nordvig and Ankit Sahni, said that they are observing an unusual type of dollar schizophrenia.

They said this is involving it's significant strength versus most emerging market currencies and sizeable USD losses versus major currencies. For example, they note that the dollar is 3.8% weaker in the Fed‟s major currency index (G10) and about 2% stronger in the EM index over the past two weeks.

They continued to mention that inflows into EM fixed income had reached a very high level, making these markets vulnerable to a reversal. They said that looking at country allocations within high frequency EPFR data, we see that bond flows from the eurozone to EM bonds reached their highest level in history by mid-May.

By their estimates, total fixed income flows from the eurozone to EM between September 2012 and mid-May were about $90bn. They note the reversal over the past three weeks has been small relative to the inflow (~$10bn), indicating that the unwind could have more room to run. “This continued unwind of short EUR/EM positions could also help explain the price action in EURUSD ”.

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - As most pairs in the FX market, NZD/USD trades within a narrow range as investors remain on the sidelines ahead of Bernanke conference.

NZD/USD consolidates between MA's

NZD/USD has been oscillating between the 200- and 100-hour SMA's over the last hours, having hit a high of 0.8025 in recent dealings. At time of writing, NZD/USD is threatening the top-side of the range around 0.8520, posting a 0.5% gain on the day.

In terms of technical levels, if NZD/USD breaks above the 100-hour SMA at 0.8025, next resistance could be found at 0.8070 (Jun 17 high). On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.7995 (200-hour SMA) and 0.7975 (10-day SMA).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.8022  |  CLOSE = 0.8022  |  HIGH = 0.803  |   LOW = 0.8019
BID = 0.802  |  ASK = 0.8024  |   PERCENT = 0
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (London) - There are three parts to the Fed story today, according to Brown Brother Harriman Global Currency Strategy Team: The FOMC statement, the forecasts and Bernanke's press conference.

They said the statement itself is likely to be the least important as the general assessment of the economy is unlikely to change significantly. The description of price pressures and the labour market may be tweaked to recognize the lower core inflation and continued modest improvement in labour market conditions. They do however say that the Fed's forecasts are important. They are part of the forward guidance and the bar against which the actual economic data needs to be measured against for policy implications.

“Here the Fed is likely to revise down its growth forecasts and, probably, its inflation forecasts. The mid-point in the March forecasts for GDP growth was 2.6%. This is well above market expectations, which are closer to 2% for this year.” They suggest the Fed may also shave next year's forecast from the current 3.2% and the 2015 projection of 3.3% (mid-point) may not be changed and is actually closer to market forecasts. They note that the US economy has not grown by more than 3% for a full calendar year in 8 years.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - A simple sensitivity analysis for all daily returns in 2013 will reveal that the dollar is largely 'risk neutral' at present, but this masks the changes (nominal values and trend) seen throughout the year.

Moreover, a simple internet keyword search trends analysis will show a marked rise in interest in the word 'tapering' in Q2. Unsurprisingly, in Q1 the DXY stuck to its 'haven' status before an upward move in its equity beta in April, and it even turned positive in May. According to Research Analyst Geoffrey Yu at UBS, “The story was broadly similar in fixed income (which should be expected): Q1 saw the DXY and bond prices move in the same direction (i.e. higher dollar but lower yields); in Q2 this relationship totally flipped and for a brief moment, it seemed as if the dollar carry trade was back after a long absence.”

Similar to the DXY's equity beta though, June was a month where the 'new relationship' was suddenly at risk again. We see two reasons: Firstly, markets were pricing in Fed changes but unable to digest the consequences. The dollar fell as liquidity-driven risk appetite was threatened, but once positioning cleared it became harder to justify sustained dollar weakness amid global risk aversion. This segues into the second point, i.e. if the Fed's next policy step will be 'stimulus withdrawal', structural rebalancing in the global economy will intensify.

YoutradeFX.com (London) - TD Securities research teams remind us that BoC Governor Poloz makes his maiden public speech this afternoon/ early eve.

Mr. Poloz speaks at 12.40ET and his comments will hit the wires just before at 12.25ET. There is an audience Q&A at the event and there will be a press conference after at 14.15ET. At his recent parliamentary appearance, the new BoC Governor’s position on many things sounded just like his predecessor’s so locals may be excused for focusing more on developments in Washington if a similar tone is struck today, explains the teams at TD Securities.

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - The USD/CHF continues to waver without a clear direction at the beginning of the American session as traders show little interest ahead of the risk event of the week, the FOMC decision.

USD/CHF uninspired as focus remains on the Fed

USD/CHF has spent most of the day within a slim range centered at 0.9200, with the 100-hour SMA at the 0.9220 area keeping the upside limited. At time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9195, virtually unchanged on the day, with the Swiss ZEW survey offering little inspiration to the franc.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9196  |  CLOSE = 0.9195  |  HIGH = 0.92  |   LOW = 0.9194
BID = 0.9195  |  ASK = 0.9196  |   PERCENT = 0.0109
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The GBP/USD foreign exchange rate has jumped to session highs Wednesday, mounting gains during the US session ahead of the FOMC.

GBP/USD still bullish

Presently, the GBP/USD is still growing at a rate of +0.19% above its opening Wednesday, having settled at 1.5674. “As the bull trend persists any downside for the GBP/USD will be limited with a strong support at 1.5468. Broader focus is on the strong resistance at 1.5789; a closing break above this would be further positive opening 1.5879, suggesting a bullish intraday outlook.” notes Geoffrey Yu, a Research Analyst at UBS.

GBP/USD must sustain 1.5605 for upside

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The GBP/USD consolidated on the support level around 1.5605 then moved to the upside again. We count on the 1.5605 level and expect an upside move during the U.S. session, pointing out the importance of trading again above 1.5685 to prove this outlook.”

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5661  |  CLOSE = 1.5676  |  HIGH = 1.5678  |   LOW = 1.5659
BID = 1.5674  |  ASK = 1.5679  |   PERCENT = -0.0957
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (London) - GBP/JPY climbing back towards pivot

GBP/JPY has started descending into another what may form as yet another wave, meeting resistance at 148.80 and rejected before the pivot at 149.06.

GBP/JPY data

Overnight, Japan's trade balance figures for the month of May came in at Y993.9 billion vs estimates of Y1200.0 billion and a previous trade balance of Y362.4 billion. Meanwhile, Japan's adjusted trade balance (May) stood at Y821.045 billion vs Y892.8 billion expected. May imports y/y came in at +10.0% vs +10.8% expected, with exports better than expected, up at +10.1% in May vs +6.5%% expected. In the UK, we have seen a raft of slightly more up beat data in from the economy and this morning we got the BoE Minutes. The vote was unanimous with regards to rates being left on hold, 9 - 0. However, there was a 6-3 split with regards to their bond purchasing programme and QE, essentially echoing previous months.

GBP/JPY sideways

GBP/JPY has been trapped in a100 pip range and sideways channel. The pair is torn between USD, GBP and Yen focus, with the Yen the worst performer and GBP slightly more bid. Resistance remains as 149.50 with a slightly bearish formation now appearing on the hourly charts supported 148.20.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 148.84  |  CLOSE = 148.89  |  HIGH = 149.01  |   LOW = 148.76
BID = 148.87  |  ASK = 148.92  |   PERCENT = -0.04
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The EUR/CAD foreign exchange rate has inched lower during US trading, falling to intraday depths in these moments Wednesday

EUR/CAD unable to avert downturn

In Canada, Wholesale Sales (MoM) grew by +0.2% in April, against consensus expectations of +0.3%, and compared with a figure of +0.1% previously.

At the time of writing, the EUR/CAD technical pair is trading at 1.3660, down a modest -0.09% during US trading. The Mataf.net analyst team points to the propensity for short-term supports at 1.3614, then 1.3529, and 1.3479. On the ascension, resistive measures are found at 1.3749, then 1.3799, and ultimately 1.3884.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3665  |  CLOSE = 1.3661  |  HIGH = 1.367  |   LOW = 1.366
BID = 1.366  |  ASK = 1.3663  |   PERCENT = 0.0293
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is prolonging its congestion pattern on Wednesday, against the backdrop of the prevailing dullness pre-FOMC.

EUR/USD vs. Fed’s ‘tapering’

Lack of direction continues to prevail amongst traders as any attempt of setting a trade would be tilted as adventurous ahead of the Fed gathering and press conference by Chairman Bernanke. In the view of G.Moore and S.Osborne, Strategists at TD Securities, “We expect the Fed message to embrace the idea that tapering is likely in the not-too-distant future (if the data supports this) but to stress that tapering is not tightening. This is perhaps a distinction without much of a difference for the markets, however. We look for the USD to gain traction on a tapering message”.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is up 0.08% at 1.3403 and a break above 1.3411 (high Jun.19) would target 1.3416 (high Jun.18) en route to 1.3456 (high Feb.14). On the downside, support levels align at 1.3338 (hourly low Jun.18) ahead of 1.3326 (MA10d) and finally 1.3325 (low Jun.18).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3402  |  CLOSE = 1.3401  |  HIGH = 1.3405  |   LOW = 1.3399
BID = 1.34  |  ASK = 1.3402  |   PERCENT = 0.0075
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona)

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - Canadian wholesale sales expanded 0.2% on a monthly basis during April, missing forecasts at 0.3% albeit bettering March’s print at 0.1% (revised).

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The USD/CAD technical pair drifted lower to session lows during US trading Wednesday. In Canada, Wholesale Sales (MoM) grew by +0.2% in April, against consensus expectations of +0.3%, and compared with a figure of +0.1% previously.

USD/CAD hinges on FOMC

“The USD/CAD made a little progress higher overnight, pushing up to a little shy of the 1.0250/80 area that we had thought was reachable. Consolidation is the order of the day now, given the event risk ahead. Meanwhile, support at 1.0200/10 (40-day MA at 1.0208) is under a little pressure in early dealing but we look for the USD to remain supported broadly if the Fed pushes a less dovish line.” suggests the TD Securities Team.

Technically speaking, the pair is operating at 1.0198, or -0.17% in these moments. The USD/CAD will look towards supports at 1.0188 followed by 1.0150, and finally 1.0124. Alternatively, a movement to the upside and a paring of losses will usher in resistances at 1.0252, then 1.0278, and eventually 1.0316, calculates the Mataf.net analyst team.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.0197  |  CLOSE = 1.0197  |  HIGH = 1.0199  |   LOW = 1.0192
BID = 1.0195  |  ASK = 1.0201  |   PERCENT = 0
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -2  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Barcelona) - The International Monetary Fund released a report on the state of the Spanish economy today in which it called for urgent action to spur growth and employment, additional to the previously implemented measures.

The IMF believes that despite the reforms carried out until now the unemployment level is unacceptably elevated and the perspectives for improvement are weak. That's why the organization is urging Spain to stimulate employment growth further.

It suggests that Rajoy's government should take several actions: improve training and placement services, reduce hiring costs, introduce tax breaks and wage moderation, facilitate access to credit for companies and promote the deleveraging process in the private sector.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - Market participants have agonized over the past few sessions on how the dollar is going to react after Wednesday's Fed meeting.

Of course, opinions differ on what the Fed will actually say, so the market's dollar view is hardly uniform either. According to Research Analyst Geoffrey Yu at UBS, “To simplify things, we believe that whatever the Fed will say, the key determination to make in identifying dollar's reaction function will be whether the market will be in a risk-on or risk-off mode ex-post. Bond yields and stock indices will move accordingly, accompanied by commensurate currency moves. As of June, the dollar is a 'positive risk-beta' currency, but its status is still evolving.”

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - Precious metals have been uneven this week with the FOMC on tap, however as of Wednesday commodities have managed to notch some manner of gains.

Gold could escape bearish scenario above 1374

Gold prices continued to consolidate within a narrow range around the key 1365.00 support level, and as such a bearish prevalence remains so long as the price holds below the 1374.00 intraday resistance. Ultimately, the fortunes of the yellow metal could shift in the near-term on news surrounding the FOMC. At the time of writing, gold prices has settled at USD $1373.04 per oz. during US trading, operating near its intraday highs.

Silver jumps to session highs

Silver spot prices moved slightly higher during the European session, approaching the broken minor ascending support, which should turn into resistance around 21.75 -21.80 level. This will in turn push price to resume the bearish bias. The bearish scenario ultimately requires 22.10 to halt any upside rally. At the current levels, the price of silver has now moved to USD $21.77 per oz. Wednesday, having moved to daily highs.

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD managed to reverse intraday losses at the beginning of the American session as the pound shrugged off BoE minutes and attention turns to the Fed statement.

GBP/USD found support just above 1.5600 and bounced, turning back positive for the day. GBP/USD is currently trading at the 1.5650/55 area, 0.1% above its opening price.

GBP/USD holds a bearish tone

From a technical view, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at YoutradeFX.com notes that GBP/USD holds a bearish tone in short term charts, supporting a downward movement, yet "it is all in FED's hands, so there's a chance price will keep ranging until the news".

"Price needs either to break below the 1.5600 mark or above 1.5670 to set a clearer intraday tone, with 1.5520 and 1.5770 as main bearish and bullish targets for today", Bednarik says.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.5649  |  CLOSE = 1.5653  |  HIGH = 1.5654  |   LOW = 1.5649
BID = 1.5652  |  ASK = 1.5654  |   PERCENT = -0.0256
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The USD/JPY foreign exchange rate fell off the 95.20 handle ahead of US trading, testing the key 95.00 barrier ahead of the FOMC later.

USD/JPY trading above support

At the time of writing, the USD/JPY technical pair is operating at the 95.00 level, down -0.34% Wednesday. Despite the drop, the pair has yet to breach support, which lies at 94.84, followed by 94.19, and 93.73. Alternatively, resistance lies ahead at 95.95, onto 96.41, and 97.06.

USD/JPY cannot escape negative expectations

According to the technical analyst team at ICN.com, “Linear Regression Indicators are positively affecting the USD/JPY; however but we find the pair trading within the overall bearish bias we suggested to manage the downside wave shown on graph. Prolonged stability below 95.50 forces us to hold on to our negative expectations today.”

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 95.06  |  CLOSE = 95.04  |  HIGH = 95.1  |   LOW = 94.98
BID = 95.04  |  ASK = 95.04  |   PERCENT = 0.02
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -4  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (London) - USD/CAD defended 1.0200 the figure but struggles to break out of a 10 pip range.

USD/CAD Data

USD/CAD has some third tier data coming up at 12.30 GMT in the form of wholesales Sales (MoM) (Apr) expected at a modest 0.3% to mirror the previous month. However, the market will be reacting to FOMC a little later on this evening as well as Bank of Canada’s new Govener, Mr.Poloz who is talking tonight on the topic of “Recovery: Rebuilding Business Confidence in Canada.” Markets will be watching closely to see if he sticks to the same script that he did during his appearance before Parliament a couple of weeks ago, which was very much in line with Carney’s tone, according to Alvin Pontoh at TD Securities

USD/CAD applying the pressure

USD/CAD is applying more pressure as the day moves on having now moved some distance away from the key resistance at 1.2070. In the short term, the upside trend remains. The pair now struggle to inch higher above the EMA20 at 1.0215, oscillating around the pivot with EMA50 at 1.0202 still acting as support.

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.0207  |  CLOSE = 1.0207  |  HIGH = 1.021  |   LOW = 1.0201
BID = 1.0204  |  ASK = 1.021  |   PERCENT = 0
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The price of Gilts is poised for a recovery, as the MACD has turned bullish and candlestick’s Dragonfly Doji followed by a bullish engulfing marked a local bottom.

According to Technical Strategist Dmytro Bondar at RBS, “There is however a strong obstacle in the way – 20-day MA, which proved to be a trailing support/resistance. A break above is required to see a recovery to 116.26 and potentially 116.87.”

Yield’s negative divergence with the slow stochastic confirms the market is likely to see a bullish correction to 1.94%, which is the 38.2% retracement from the same move and the level of 100-day MA. However, after the correction is completed, the long-term bearish view would come into play again with 2.27% in focus.

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The intraday bull run of the Aussie dollar seems to have stalled around 0.9520, initiating a correction lower and dragging the AUD/USD to the current sub 0.9500 levels.

AUD/USD hinges on FOMC near-term

The pair would remain under pressure ahead of the FOMC meeting due later today, as the announcements by the Fed will surely impact on the greenback. According to Currency Strategist I.Spivak at DailyFX, “Prices are testing support at 0.9415, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break beneath that targeting the 38.3% level at 0.9260. Near-term trend line resistance is at 0.9655. A move above that targets a larger downward-sloping barrier at 0.9882”.

AUD/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is up 0.06% at 0.9490 facing the next hurdle at 0.9510 (low Jun.17) ahead of0.9526 (MA10d) and finally 0.9574 (high Jun.18). On the flip side, a breakdown of 0.9440 (low Jun.18) would expose 0.9430 (low Jun.13) and then 0.9416 (low Jun.12).

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 0.9495  |  CLOSE = 0.9496  |  HIGH = 0.9496  |   LOW = 0.9492
BID = 0.9493  |  ASK = 0.9499  |   PERCENT = -0.0105
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bullish  |   Strength = 3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral

YoutradeFX.com (Córdoba) - The USD is trading largely within yesterday's ranges versus most competitors ahead of the much anticipated Fed decision and subsequent Bernanke's press conference.

While most analysts don't expect the Fed to taper its stimulus program quite yet, they agree Bernanke language will be crucial for market reaction as investors struggle for clues on the future course of US monetary policy.

In the FX space, EUR/USD oscillated around 1.3400 while GBP/USD fell back to the 1.5600 zone in the wake of latest BoE minutes. USD/JPY briefly dipped below 95.00 and trades virtually unchanged at the 95.15 zone ahead of the NY opening.

Quietness became notable in other financial markets as investors remain on the sidelines waiting for Bernanke, with European stocks wavering between small gains and losses.

Main Headlines in Europe:

BoJ's Kuroda sees financial markets stabilizing over time

Eurozone won’t revise Cyprus bail out conditions

BoE Minutes: MPC voted 6-3 to keep QE unchanged

EMU: Construction Output grows 2% in April

IMF: Spain has made progress on reforms…..

European equities record modest gains

YoutradeFX.com (Edinburgh) - The Mortgage Bankers Association has informed that US citizens that applied for mortgage loans dropped 3.3% in the week ended on June 14, markedly lower that the previous advance of 5.0%.

YoutradeFX.com (New York) - The EUR/USD foreign exchange rate has relinquished its gains Wednesday, having traded in the heights of 1.3412 (session high) and falling below the 1.3400 barrier.

EUR/USD returns to opening levels

At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is experiencing a marginal loss of -0.01% Wednesday, negotiating an exchange rate of 1.3395. The Mataf.net analyst team points to the next corrective supports for the pair at 1.3341, ahead of 1.3289 and 1.3251. On the ascension, resistances will trigger at 1.3431, onto 1.3469 and 1.3521.

EUR/USD key resistance lies ahead at 200-week MA

According to Analyst Karen Jones at Commerzbank, “The EUR/USD charted a minor new high, as this was not confirmed by the daily RSI and directly overhead lies 1.3440/52, the 200-week MA and the 2011-2013 resistance line. This is key resistance and we look for this to hold and provoke failure.”

Technical Studies :

OPEN = 1.3392  |  CLOSE = 1.3391  |  HIGH = 1.3394  |   LOW = 1.3389
BID = 1.3391  |  ASK = 1.3392  |   PERCENT = 0.0075
Pivot Points S1 = 0  |   Pivot Points S2 = 0  |   Pivot Points S3 = 0
Pivot Points R1 = 0  |   Pivot Points R2 = 0  |   Pivot Points R3 = 0
Recommendation = Bearish  |   Strength = -3  |  OBO Recommendation = Neutral